No drivers in Europe, one woman driver in the Middle East, autonomous not helping and Uber paying pensions.

This week we deepdive into the UK driver shortage (also touching on Europe and the US); then moving to good mobility news with first ever women driver in SWVL and legalised carpooling in the US (because after marihuana it is the most sensible thing to do); closing with a DfT data bonanza and a spotlight - in this week’s driver-shortage-ever-edition of mobility news.?

Driver shortage deepdive

In the UK, truck (lorry, or HGV license) and bus drivers shortages are wreaking havoc. In the logistics industry, the driver shortage has caused a fuel shortage and supply chains are preparing for a ‘nightmare christmas ’. In the bus industry, school services are getting canceled and councils are asking petrol stations to prioritise fuel to school services. Data shows that the number of lorry drivers has fallen from ±300K in Q1/20 to ±235K in Q2/21. There are an estimated 100,000 missing lorry drivers and 4,000 missing bus drivers .

So why is there a driver shortage??

First of all - this is not a new problem. Even before the pandemic and Brexit, the industry was still missing 76,000 drivers, according to Logistics UK. Since then supply (drivers) has declined and demand (deliveries) has grown.?

EU drivers are missed. From 2010 to 2017, the number of EU HGV drivers in the UK rose from 10,000 to 45,000. During the pandemic many of these drivers went back home; and Brexit contributed to the reason they are not coming back. Moreover, other European countries (Germany. France) have better work conditions. But EU drivers are only a ±10% of total drivers, and some 24.5K have stayed, so we have to look for more reasons.??

Driving is an aging profession. In the logistics industry, it is estimated that half of active drivers are over 50. Over the years more and more are retiring, but new drivers aren’t coming in. Bus drivers is also an aging profession - “...20% of all drivers falling between the ages of 60 and 64 and a further 9% over 65” - many are retiring or moving to part time.?

Most importantly - British people don’t want to drive. There are 230K HGV licence holders under the age of 45 that don’t want to work in the commercial haulage sector. If only 10% of them choose to drive lorries, we would be back to pre-pandemic (more manageable) numbers.?

What else? Lack of driving test during the pandemic; unfavorable IR35 tax changes; Bottleneck of testing and of training & recruitment.?

How are things in Europe and the US??

Poland is missing 124K drivers (37% of workforce!); Germany 60K; France 43K; Spain and Italy each missing 15K. In all of Europe (UK included), there are 400,000 missing drivers .?

In the US , a survey showed that 81% of (school) districts reported not being able to find enough school bus drivers to fill their needs. Reasons are similar: aging workforce that is not coming back post-pandemic; poor pay and bad working conditions; Amazon and other commercial companies recruiting bus drivers with better pay and drivers moving into the gig-economy.?

How can we fix this?

For now in the UK, faster HGV testing and EU HGV temp visas are government tools being used. But that is not nearly enough. We need a structural fix across the developed world.?

How is it going to be fixed? Well, autonomous trucks. But that’s not in the near future. And I guess lowering demand isn’t something consumption driven economics (or consumers) really want. So there has to be an increase in supply. How can we do that? Improve drivers’ wages and working conditions. Cough, inflation. To be continued in the logistic site next to your home.?

For more good read on the driver shortage reasons: The Grocer , IGD , The Hustle .?

OK - enough for driver news. Let’s talk about the good in mobility.?

Transportation in the US: carpooling is now legal in Colorado . That is, as long as you travel more than 23 miles a day each way. And only one round trip per day.?

In Zimbabwe, ridesharing startup Tuverl , focusing on smart commuter solutions, is amongst 31 startups selected for the Smart Cities Innovation Programme (SCIP), after earlier this year winning the Harvard Innovation Challenge. Here for all ‘Smart Mobility’ SCIP finalists (most have to do with transition to electric).?

Pelican, UK importers of Yutong, have secured a HSBC funding package to import 129 battery electric buses to the UK.

SWVL is promoting equality - In Pakistan, the company announced its first female driver , who will work on women-only city-to-city rides .?

Padam continues UK expansion . This time with Hertslynx. This is the first DRT service to come out of the rural mobility fund. Via in Berlin . Shotl at the beach .?

UK’s ‘Back to Office ’ watch: during weekdays TfL bus usage is ±70% and tube ±55% vs. pre-covid data. Outside London buses at ±75% and rail ±60%. Since the start of September, tube trended up ±10%-point; buses outside London up ±15%-points. Slow and steady.?

AVs (or - the driver shortage solution roadmap)

Aurora->Toyota->Uber autonomous car. In an Uber close to you in 2024 .?

Motional expands Las Vegas operations ahead of 2023 robotaxi service launch . The company is working with Lyft.??

May Mobility autonomous shuttle service to begin in Ann Arbor (Michigan, US). Yes, with safety drivers.?

Ryder supply chain and fleet management solutions is partnering with Embark autonomous trucking. This is the 3rd autonomous trucking partnership for Ryder.?

And a long(ish) read sanity check on autonomous vehicles, concluding in “We should expect some limited implementations of automated long-haul trucking on low-density rural highways and automated local small-package delivery in urban and suburban settings during the current decade. Automated urban and suburban ride-hailing services could become available on a limited basis as well, but the location-specific challenges to their deployment are sufficient that this is unlikely to reach a national scale soon.” Maybe we do need drivers for now...

Gig-workers conditions

A new New York bill in the works is meant to provide improved conditions for delivery workers, such as ensuring minimum pay, access to bathrooms, and the right to determine unsafe areas without fear of penalty by the platform. The legislation does not change the classification of independent contractors.?

Uber is preparing to start paying pensions in the UK. This follows court case loss back in march, which classified drivers as ‘workers’. Drivers are accusing the company for ignoring the court’s ruling on other issues and have gone on a 24 hour strike .??

Flying-cars

The air-taxi industry has granted us with 3 stocks to follow. Joby Aviation (NYSE: JOBY) started trading on August 11th 2021; Lilium (NASDAQ: LILM) on Sept. 15th and Archer Aviation (NYSE:ACHR) on Sept. The 17th.?

This week saw Joby Aviation stock jump >12% due to a favorable Morgan Stanley analysis - only to return a week later to (almost) where it started the week. And how was the first couple of weeks to the newcomers? Lilium is holding steady, Archer has lost some ground.?

Vertical Aerospace produces eVTOLS. Avolon leases aircraft and provides lease management services to airlines and aircraft investors worldwide. Gol is a Brazilian low-cost airline. Together, they are preparing to introduce electric air-taxis in Sao Paulo by 2025. Avalon Boss wants to cut costs to the equivalent of an Uber ride, saying operating costs could come down to $1 per passenger per 25 miles.?

Scooters & bikes

US bike sharing trends 2019-2021 from 6 different cities. Key takeaway: pandemic has ‘killed’ commute-peak usage;? off-peak demand declined or stayed similar, depending on which city we’re looking at. Pandemic is still relevant in 2021 figures as well.?

UK Fuel shortages also have winners. Voi demand increased 44% over the period of 3 days. Regardless, the company is preparing to raise another round , hoping to get a new ￡120M investment.?

A scooter starting at $2,440 with turn-by-turn navigation, ADAS sensor, built-in bluetooth speaker and GPS tracking by Unagi.?

Long read: the DfT just updated its National Travel Surve y (here for data tables ) and we'll look more into this next week.?

Lastly - a spotlight on James Gleave ’s daily newsletter which you can subscribe to here - I find myself reading it daily and reusing some of the articles in this newsletter. So highly recommended.?