Driverless Dilemmas: The State of Autonomous Vehicles in 2024

From high-profile accidents to retreating investment capital, there’s no denying that 2023 was a rough year for autonomous vehicles (AVs). The fabled self-driving revolution has failed to materialize, and after the past year, it seems reasonable to question just how close we are to this transformative vision.

2023: a year of AV setbacks

Seen from our current vantage point, you can group the future of AVs into three main categories:

·?????? Self-driving features in privately owned cars

·?????? AV ride-hailing

·?????? AV long-haul trucking

As such, the recent industry fumbles can be primarily attributed to AV-ride hailing.

With their operations limited to select cities, there are only a handful of companies currently testing AV ride-hailing fleets. Therefore, a significant blow was struck against the industry when Cruise—the General Motor’s owned AV company—recently lost its license for driver-less operation in the state of California. The decision came following an incident where an AV dragged a woman after being struck by a human-operated vehicle and launched into the path of the AV. Fortunately, she survived but sustained critical injuries.

For Cruise, the fallout has been swift and severe. GM has publicly stated its plan to cut back millions in funding and suspended the production of Origin, its driver-less shuttle service. Other AV players like Argo AI, previously backed by Ford and Volkswagen, have shut down altogether, citing mounting losses and lack of investor interest.

And to these developments, we must add a negative turn in consumer confidence. Two recent surveys from the American Automobile Association and JD Power revealed that public perception of the readiness of AVs is declining.

So, it’s fair to say that enthusiasm for autonomous vehicles, both on the customer and business side, has reached a low ebb. However, is the situation genuinely catastrophic?

We wouldn’t say so.

While uncertainty looms, it’s also fair to note that the current downturn might seem worse than it is, given the unbridled (some might say unrealistic) optimism that has colored the AV industry’s character. In retrospect, 2023 will likely be the year when the industry gets its reality check rather than its death sentence.

A driverless future is far off but still on the way

Make sure you filter what the naysayers put out there. The AV industry still has a bright future, and 2024 is poised to bring some significant advancements.

In privately owned cars, level three automation will be introduced to an expanded lineup of models by manufacturers like BMW and Mercedes. We also have the rollout of SEA-M, a platform from ZEEKR, which will enable level-four automation where passenger attention isn’t required for safety interventions. These developments, however, will only be available in select areas, and level-four automation is unlikely to receive regulatory approval for passenger cars in the near future.

With AV ride-hailing and long-haul trucking, a series of crucial tests and expansions is in the works. We’ll likely see ride-hailing AVs appear in several more American cities, and depending on their test results, 2024 could be a big year for long-haul trucking regulation.

Have you noticed a pattern?

There is an incremental quality to the pace of AV development as advancements must be tempered with the need for testing, regulatory compliance, and technical due diligence. For instance, autonomous vehicles can only operate in areas where you have a thorough mapping process. There are also less obvious factors to consider, like safety-related AV education and legal questions surrounding liability in AV accidents.

Putting AV challenges in perspective

Overall, we can perceive the recent challenges surrounding the autonomous vehicles industry as a chain of highly publicized incidents leading to a generalized feeling of pessimism that affected both consumer and business interests.

However, if you look at the bigger picture, the significance of these events seems trivial—especially so when considering the thousands of people who die in human-caused accidents. Statistically, AVs have proven themselves to be incredibly safe. And yes, there have been accidents, but most have been minor and still involved some level of human fault.

In any case, the best strategy for the AV industry going forward is one that emphasizes honesty. Developments should be celebrated, but obstacles should also be acknowledged. No more overblown hype. Companies shouldn’t advertise an advanced self-driving system and then fail to mention its limitations, like the need for mapped roads, pre-defined routes, and capped speed limits.

Is there a light at the end of the tunnel?[KH1]nbsp;

So, what can we expect? Well, advanced self-driving features will likely reach the general public before an AV ride-hailing firm can get significant market adoption rates. And, as much as we would have wanted it to be true, that Sci-fi dream where you can nonchalantly flip through a magazine while your 100 percent autonomous vehicle blazes along the highway at 80mph is nowhere close.

There are still huge regulatory and judicial ordeals to overcome, and we shouldn’t underestimate the technical challenge of making AVs operational worldwide and not just in particular cities. Hence, our basic recommendation when thinking about AV progress is to moderate your expectations but remain optimistic and seek your investment opportunities. Whether in AV software or hardware, there is a vast potential to be unlocked soon.