DRIVERLESS CARS – LET’S GET REAL

The tragic recent death of 49-year-old Elaine Herzberg in Arizona caused by a driverless Uber vehicle highlights the need for the debate on fully driverless vehicles to be broadened and slowed down.

The race to put driverless cars on our roads seems to be gaining pace notwithstanding that their impact is going to fundamentally change our society in ways which do not yet appear to have been fully understood.

Which would you rather have?

Where do the humans drive?

Despite a trend away from driving by millennials, the vast majority of people still want and/or need to drive for work and/or recreation.

A key issue is how will a fully driverless or autonomous car avoid an accident when a car driven by a human does a manoeuvre which is unexpected? How will the onboard computer in the driverless car react? If it senses a collision and tries to move out of the way or stop suddenly, how will the other surrounding driverless cars react? Would this cause an unfortunate chain reaction?

Clearly, to minimise or avoid this risk, the cars driven by humans will need to be on roads which are physically separated or cordoned off from those used by fully driverless or autonomous cars. Like bike tracks in many cities.

This seems to be completely impractical and unachievable. How will parents drop their kids off at school? How will goods and supplies be delivered, particularly bulky goods like industrial equipment, fuel, gas etc? 

Who will pay for the massive infrastructure costs required to make it work?

If the above separation was to occur, how will this massive change in the road networks be funded? Would it even be possible in cities such as Sydney which already have great difficulty accommodating the traffic we currently have?

It would be a shame if the money spent on reconfiguring the road network resulted in funds being diverted from other more important matters such as non-road infrastructure projects, maintaining and improving existing infrastructure and health and education.

Racetracks and non- driverless cars – new forms of alternative investment?

Will the only place where humans will continue to be able to fully enjoy the pleasures of driving a car be a racetrack? If so, where will these tracks be located? How would the drivers transport their cars to the racetrack?

Given the longstanding passion associated with cars in our society, the likely demand for this type of facility in a driverless car world could potentially make such racetracks an attractive alternative real estate investment.

Will non-driverless cars become less or more attractive investments? Classic cars are already good investments so it is likely their values will boom if the availability of such vehicles becomes more limited. However, the restricted ability to enjoy such investments (by actually driving them) may offset their attractiveness as an investment.

Emergency vehicles

What will happen in cases of fire, police or medical emergencies? Will we have to rely on driverless fire engines, police cars and ambulances or will it be possible to lock down the grid and stop the driverless cars to enable the emergency vehicles driven by humans to get to the emergency? 

Increased safety concerns

The hacking of computer systems around the world on a regular basis demonstrates that if someone really wants to, he or she can disrupt/corrupt the functioning of most computers.

If hackers were able to hack into the computers which control driverless cars, lives could very well be at risk.

In addition, it is reasonable to assume that a computer fault affecting such cars could completely disrupt traffic and cause serious accidents given the large number of cars that could potentially be affected at the same time.

Electric yes, driverless no

If you have read this far, you may be thinking this guy is stuck in the dark ages.

Happily, this is not the case. I am all for technological progress but not when it is unnecessary and would fundamentally affect something which has been part of our way of life for over 120 years (and for most people continues to be something they need or really enjoy), being the ability to drive and the freedom associated with it.

We already have systems in cars which minimise safety concerns and relieve the driver from certain tasks in certain situations – radar cruise control, self-parking and automatic emergency braking to name a few. Nonetheless, the driver can still take control if need be. In my view, this must be retained.

The use of completely driverless cars in very limited and sheltered environments could make sense but, for the reasons mentioned above, this should not be seen as a priority in human endeavour and should certainly not divert efforts and funding from other more important areas.

Electric and hybrid cars have proven to be a significant step forward in relation to the reduction of pollution and yet can still provide humans with the pleasures and benefits associated with driving (think Tesla in “Ludicrous" mode).

The main disadvantage which has been associated with electric cars is their limited driving range before having to be recharged. This has been overcome in many countries where the appropriate infrastructure has been built and encouraged. Although we are a large country where such infrastructure may not be useful on long journeys, for short journeys (which presumably make up the bulk of the driving trips taken, particularly in the cities where air pollution is at its worst) this is not an issue.

As battery technology continues to improve range phobia will become less and less of an issue,

 I, for one, hope that common sense prevails in relation to fully driverless cars. They should be seen as having only limited application in the real world.

The main game, as is evidenced by the targeted dates by which the manufacture of petrol or diesel-powered cars is to stop (as already set by some overseas countries and car makers), is electric and hybrid cars. 

Let’s focus on the main game and the infrastructure needed to make it work and not get hung up on the driverless car. Surely we have not got to the point in human history where we can’t even be bothered to take responsibility for driving. The ability to drive, if one so chooses, is not something that should be taken away or delegated to a machine. The driver’s aids already incorporated in modern cars should be sufficient to prevent or minimise the safety concerns arising from bad, uncaring or inexperienced human behaviour.      

For those who disagree, they can already call an Uber or taxi (many of which are already electric or hybrid powered) or catch public transport. Plus there is always home delivery. 

I welcome your views on this topic. Whilst I am a recognised trusted property adviser in commercial property investment, development and finance, I am very passionate about cars. I can even confess my first word ever spoken was "car".

Peter Faludi

Peter Faludi Consulting

https://www.peterfaludiconsulting.com.au