Driverless Cars - They Are Here, And Here To Stay?

Despite the recent controversy involving hacking, it is still my firm belief that driverless cars will be the future. The real question is not “if,” but “when.”

Almost all of the major manufacturers have announced that they are investing in research and development, and legislation has been passed to allow testing of autonomous vehicles on public roads in four U.S. states as well as in the UK. Google’s driverless car has travelled more than 1 million miles, and trials of driverless Lutz Pods on pedestrianized roads are scheduled to begin in Milton Keynes, England, this year.

There is some distinction between “driverless” and “autonomous.” Currently, the term “autonomous cars” seems to be used for cars which have the option of letting the computer take over, whereas true “driverless” cars may not even have a steering wheel. For the purposes of this post, the term “connected car” is intended to cover both setups.

The primary reason connected cars will be the future, I believe, is that it will cut down on the horrendous cost, both in terms of human lives and monetary expense, of road accidents caused by bad driving – 90 percent of which are said to be due to human error.

Computers can think quicker than humans, meaning they are better designed to cope with complex and fast-changing situations such as traffic dynamics on an open highway at rush hour. They can react more quickly, so they can brake more quickly in an emergency. They also are better equipped to judge whether it is safe to perform an emergency stop. By analyzing the speed at which cars in front and behind are traveling, and the distance between itself and those vehicles, a connected car can determine the optimum pressure to apply on braking mechanisms to ensure safety as well as the comfort of its passengers.

In fact, in the 1 million miles that Google’s car has traveled, it has been involved in only 14 road accidents – 11 caused by drivers of other vehicles, and the remaining three while the car was under manual control.

In one of its monthly progress reports, Google engineers have visualized and described how the cars are capable of dealing with complex and potentially life-threateningly hazardous situations. In this example, the car tracks and autonomously alters its behavior to safely navigate with two cyclists in front of it riding erratically at night time.

Sensors in the car (which use lidar, the laser-based version of radio-based radar) scan the immediate area – a radius of about 100 meters – to build up a real-time map of the area around it, and how that area is changing, in precise detail. Radar is used too, as this older technology is still better at measuring the speed of moving objects.

The Google car also has visual recognition systems – cameras, basically – that work in pairs, like human eyes, to allow stereoscopic vision and judge distance.

Other systems on the car, such as GPS and online connectivity over wireless networks, give it information of a much wider area, allowing it to pick routes to avoid congestion or find empty parking spaces. Between them, the car’s sensors are estimated to gather around 1GB of data per second.

Aside from safety, there are many other reasons why I think connected cars will replace the cars we have today. For a start, there is convenience. Why spend your time studying the distance between yourself and the car in front while you could be browsing the Internet or writing a book on your laptop? Many car-bound commuters spend hours in their car every day. Imagine the impact that much extra free time could have on your life!

Parking in town and city centers will become less of an issue, too. Once your car has taken you where you want to go, it can happily take itself off and find somewhere to wait for you to summon it back, Batmobile-style.

On top of that, tomorrow’s cars will be able to regulate themselves better, leading to less damage to components by driver misuse and cheaper repair bills and servicing. Updating critical functions such as engine management and safety features, as well less essential systems such as entertainment devices, will be as simple as updating an app on your smartphone.

Of course, there are potential problems, as with all new technology. And when we are talking about one-ton hunks of metal traveling at high speeds with soft, squishy humans inside them, those problems could potentially lead to danger.

We certainly should not ignore the potential consequences of hacking – both from a safety point of view and a data security one. The damage that could be done by an individual taking control of a connected car is obvious, but the incentive is certainly there for security measures to be developed to the point that this isn’t a practical concern. After all, any connected electronic system can be hacked, in theory, meaning air traffic control systems and nuclear arsenals are, essentially, at risk of being compromised. Thankfully, sufficient resources have been allocated to security, so that has never caused us any problems. Those responsible for connected cars will have to do the same. It is, after all, highly unlikely that an automobile manufacturer would want to be responsible for the potential fallout from making mistakes in this critical aspect of the program.

One thing that is worth considering, though, is a huge database of information about what’s going on in the world and the movement and behavior of everyday people, which vehicle manufacturers inevitably will build up as a side-effect of fully autonomous, sensor-laden cars filling our streets. Imagine if, say, Ford had access to a database that showed exactly what was going on – down to the names of the people who were there – at every point in history where one of their cars had been present. In theory, Google can identify pedestrians and other drivers around the car from their license plates or signals sent from their smartphones. Sure, this is ostensibly an unplanned side effect, but it’s not hard to imagine a company like Google rubbing its hands with glee at the thought of what it could do with that data!

Overall, I am hugely excited by the idea of connected cars. The automobile has served us reasonably well for the last century (safety record perhaps not withstanding), but is starting to feel like old technology. A step up from a horse and cart but, in terms of energy output and safety, an inefficient thing to have to rely on. Given the increasing congestion in our cities and on our streets, it’s about time we started thinking about making fundamental changes to how they work and how we use them.

As always, let me know your thoughts on the topic. Are you looking forward to self-dring cars? Have you got any concerns? Share your views!

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You might also be interested in my brand new books (available to pre-order now):

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Finally, here are some other posts from my Data Informed column:

• The Hype May Be Over, bug Big Data Isn't
• The Difference Between Big Data and a Lot of Data
• The 5 Scariest Ways Big Data Is Used Today

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