Driver in the Driverless car

"May you live in an interesting times" - is a proverbial Chinese wish. Though it looks like a blessing, the meaning of 'interesting' here is attributed to 'danger and uncertainty'. Hence this statement is interpreted as a mix of blessing and curse. This book by Vivek Wadhwa is an interesting perspective on the rise of Artificial Intelligence in various aspects of our lives. At the end of it one can only conclude "yes, we are living in interesting times".

Start Trek Vs Mad Max

The book essentially describes that the future depends on the choices we make with the technology. The author paints two pictures one of Star Trek - a utopian view where all our wants and needs are met and we work on the betterment of humankind; the other one is Mad Max - dystopian view of frightening and alienating future in which the civilization destroys itself. Both are the world of science fiction created by Hollywood but either of them can come true based on our technology choices. The same technology can be used for good as for evil in all areas.

Moore's World and Law of Accelerating returns

All the disruptive changes that we face today can trace their onset to Moore's law. This is the often quotes maxim that the number of transistors per unit area of a semiconductor doubles every 18 months. This law explains why an iPhone is faster than the supercomputers few decades ago. The author also introduces the "law of accelerating returns" in information technology which follows exponential growth curve.

If any technology becomes addressable by IT, it becomes subject to law of accelerating returns. For example now human genome has been translated into bits that computer can process, genome de facto becomes a field of IT and the exponential growth law applies here. On exponential curve the time required to get from 0.01 percent to 1 percent is same as the one from 1 percent to 100 percent. The author predicts that by 2023 the smartphones will have more computing power than our brains.

Technology Seeks Society's Forgiveness, not Permission

The author says that the law , rules and infrastructure will lag the technological changes. They will evolve as with new disruptions be it driverless car, blockchain, IOT, drones, bio printing or DNA editing. To assess the value of technology we should look if the technology benefits everyone equally, risks and reward and autonomy vs dependence.

Narrow AI vs Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) vs Artificial Super Intelligence (ASI)

Siri is an example of narrow AI, it does certain tasks better than humans. But if you ask her for a suggestion of gift to your mother, she might just make snarky comment and give up. The narrow AI also handles all airline calls and support desks. Cancer treatment in another example of narrow AI. In the near future it is the narrow AI that will change our lives and improve significantly. General intelligence is something that is still very difficult for the computers to achieve. Most of the tasks that humans learn early on without much difficulty (e.g. walking up a ladder, folding laundries) computers are still unable to learn. Non of the computers have still passed the Turing test (a test to distinguish machines from humans).

Will AI amplify our lives or take our jobs?

The author says it will do both.

As per a McKinsey study - today's technology could automate 45% of the ctivities people are paid to perform across all occupations. About 60% of all occupations could see 30% or more of their work activities automated. Venture capitalist Vinod Khosla predicts that technology will replace 80% of doctors. Pharmacists will not be needed. Legal profession will be equally impacted accordingly with automation and robo laws. AI will be very much like electricity. As we electrified everything earlier, AI will cognitize all the objects around including humans. We will eventually have extra IQ powered by virtual assistants.

Healthcare could be the biggest beneficiary of AI. Our iPhones can monitor pulse rates We can eventually print medicine in the house using 3D printers. Cost of sequencing a human genome may come down from $1000 today to less than $100 in five years to less than a latte at Startbucks in a decade. The DNA profiling and editing has lot of promises as well as risks. We can have designer genes, bacteria in our guts and precision medicines. This opens up a more ethical question whether there should be a moratorium on things like gene editing?

VA and Robots already have better capability in the areas like voice recognition, translation and image processing. They key thing is they will start learning faster than humans. By 2025 we may possibly have a robot maid like Rosie who can be taught for few days and can do all household work. The author says that robot caregiver for the ederly as in Japan may eventually help the world greatly where the working population may still be deployed in more productive work. We may also be entering in a drone age.

Classroom education can be revolutionized by use of an adaptive personal AI tutor (Avatar) that can make learning very interesting, affordable and on demand. This can be combined with a coach (human) that can provide emotional support. This can effectively change the current classroom schooling in the long term. BYJUS in India is case in point.

Connected world a bigger threat?

Security and Privacy will be the biggest casualty in the era of ubiquitous connectivity. Pacemakers connected to the internet can be possibly hacked be used to kill the person, one of the reasons that U.S. vice president Dick Cheney possibly refused that. The citizens will be caught in this cyber crossfire. The next big geopolitical crisis will be attacks on IP network to cripple civilian infrastructures. Centralized databases and personal data stores can increase the risks. With present state of affairs sacrificing our security and privacy for online convenience may not be worth the price.

In the age of driverless cars, there will be no traffic lights, the cars will synchronize talking to each other. The road accidents will be negligible. There will be no parking lots required as all the cars will be in motion 90% of the time. The cars themselves will be light reducing fuel consumption and be super fast. One can work while driving and stay far off. The urbanization and our cities will change. People will not own cars anymore, the automotive industry need not make many cars - it will decline.

Free energy and unlimited food ?

Finally the author claims that thanks to technology we may all have almost Free Energy and unlimited food. The oil will give way to natural energy sources like solar power which is practically everywhere. The solar panel from thinner silvers of silicon have become very effective. The rate at which it is growing, it is less than 14 years away from meeting 100% of today's energy needs. This clean sustainable energy can be used for getting clean water and can enrich agriculture to produce almost unlimited food.

Finally free power means a happier world.

Reference :

https://www.amazon.in/Driver-Driverless-Car-Technology-Createthe/dp/9352772709/

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2013/10/21/yes-terrorists-could-have-hacked-dick-cheneys-heart/?utm_term=.a1a78b1bedf0