Dreams or Doubts: What Exactly Are We Scaling?

Takeaways from the Masters of Scale Summit

It's been a while since I've attended a big confab in San Francisco. And so when I got invited to the Masters of Scale Summit hosted by Reid Hoffman , I thought it might be a good opportunity to mingle with visionary entrepreneurs with a common goal: scaling the next big idea.

What I didn't appreciate was how much of an internal tug-of-war I would feel throughout the sessions between an AI-fueled dystopian future and a utopian one.

Sure, there was the predictable lineup of big names talking about our future in the age of AI – from Microsoft AI’s Mustafa Suleyman to Bret Taylor from OpenAI to Vinod Khosla and, of course, Reid. But this year’s event had a more political and social twist, and at times got surprisingly dark -- particularly in the hallway conversations.

The techno-optimists predictably made the compelling Optimistic Case on stage. AI will unleash human creativity and enable greater global prosperity. I am a techno-optimist by nature, so I am naturally bought into this line of thinking (I am even writing a book on product-market fit in the age of AI with the theme that AI will enable an army of 10x Founders in the future).

The techno-optimistic comments on stage echoed Sam Altman's The Intelligence Age blog post published a few weeks ago. At one point, Suleyman talked about soon reaching a tipping point where AI capabilities allow for "recursive self-improvement". In other words, our AI platforms will be able to advance on their own, rapidly refining their own processes and accelerating their own evolution.

Another hot take that I liked from Suleyman was that our range of creative thoughts will increase dramatically because AI companions will lower the barrier from ideation to action. I woke up today thinking I should write a blog post about this conference. But it took me a few hours to sit down, power through, and actually do it. A future AI writing companion trained on all of my writing could have done it in seconds after I fed it a few core ideas. That would have allowed me more time in the gym. ??

In making the optimistic case on stage, Khosla cited his long blog post on AI: Dystopia or Utopia , which concludes with the belief that "the rich lifestyle enjoyed by only 700 million (~10%) people to all 7-8 billion global citizens, is finally within arm’s reach."

The Pessimistic Case

Led by former political operative Jeff Berman (CEO of the organizing entity, WaitWhat ), the conference had a healthier dose of politics and social commentary than I was expecting (yes, even though the US election is just a few days away). President Bill Clinton, Maryland Gov. Wes Moore , and Detroit mayor Mike Duggan all got prime time slots bemoaning the partisanship and polarization in America.

The pessimistic case really hit hard for me when I watched a live focus group of four GenZers led by Sarah Longwell. The four young professionals told the audience, in effect, that they don't feel like America is working for them. We all have heard this refrain before, but it was still jarring to hear from a group of smart, articulate young people about the cost of food, housing, and health care making it seem as if the American Dream is out of reach. At a time when The Economist is declaring that the US economy is bigger and better than ever , the pessimism from the younger generation is worrisome. The polarization is worrisome. And the fears about AI accelerating polarization and inequality are very real.

The Need for a Global Perspective -- and a Dash of Inspiration

As I process these contrasting views, I also should note that while the sessions on stage were very centered on America, we had an audience of amazing global leaders. In sidebar conversations, I met a Senegalese entrepreneur who started a surfing school as outdoor therapy for street children, a Palestinian peace activist who (despite all the odds) is tenaciously striving to create grassroots support for a two-state solution, and an Indonesian microfinance entrepreneur that has served over 2.5 million women-led businesses ( Andi Taufan Garuda Putra of Amartha , one of my portfolio companies!). Those conversations were inspiring.

On a personal note, one of my favorite moments of the conference was bumping into a familiar face Kaitlin Sanders -- a talented young woman who grew up across the street from me and used to babysit my three kids. She now works for Reid and is a rising star in the world of big ideas. Although it made me feel old, small-world stories and a dash of serendipity are what makes conferences like Masters of Scale so fun and rewarding. And it reminded me that even in an AI-powered world, humanity shines.