Dream project Autonomous Electric Vehicle is still a decade away

Dream project Autonomous Vehicle is still a decade away

INTRODUCTION

An autonomous car is a vehicle capable of sensing its environment and operating without human involvement. A human passenger is not required to take control of the vehicle at any time, nor is a human passenger required to be present in the vehicle at all. An autonomous car can go anywhere a traditional car goes and do everything that an experienced human driver does. ?Autonomous vehicles (AVs) use technology to partially or entirely replace the human driver in navigating a vehicle from an origin to a destination while avoiding road hazards and responding to traffic conditions.?

The Society of Automotive Engineers

The Society of Automotive Engineers (SAE) has developed a widely-adopted classification system with six levels based on the level of human intervention. The U.S. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) uses this classification system. Levels of Automation The SAE AV classification system is broken down by level of automation: Development of Autonomous Vehicles AV research started in the 1980s when universities began working on two types of AVs: one that required roadway infrastructure and one that did not.

?The U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) has held “grand challenges” testing the performance of AVs on a 150-mile off-road course. No vehicles successfully finished the 2004 Grand Challenge, but five completed the course in 2005. In 2007, six teams finished the third DARPA challenge, which consisted of a 60-mile course navigating an urban environment obeying normal traffic laws.

?In 2015, the University of Michigan built Mcity, the first testing facility built for autonomous vehicles. Research is conducted there into the safety, efficiency, accessibility, and commercial viability of AVs.

?Unmanned aircraft systems (UAS), or drones,

They are being developed for commercial ventures such as last-mile package delivery, medical supply transportation, and inspection of critical infrastructure.

AV Technologies: It uses a blend of technologies and sensors to sense the roadway, other vehicles, and objects on and along the roadway. ?

Current and Projected Market Leaders

??Waymo has tested its vehicles by driving over 20 million miles on public roads and tens of billions of miles in simulation. ?Tesla has driven over 3 billion miles in Autopilot mode since 2014. Other major contributors include Audi, BMW, Daimler, GM, Nissan, Volvo, Bosch, Continental, Mobileye, Valeo, Velodyne, Nvidia, and Ford, as well as many other OEMs and technology companies.

?Regulations, Liability, and Projected Timeline

Regulation will directly impact the adoption of AVs. There are no national standards or guidelines for AVs, allowing states to determine their own. In 2018, Congress worked to pass the AV Start Act that would have implemented a framework for the testing, regulating, and deploying of AVs. The legislation failed to pass both houses. As of February 2020, 29 states and D.C. have enacted legislation regarding the definition of AVs, their usage, and liability, among other topics. Product liability laws need to assign liability properly when AV crashes occur, as highlighted by the May 2016 Tesla Model S fatality. Liability will depend on multiple factors, especially whether the vehicle was being operated appropriately to its level of automation. Although many researchers, OEMs, and industry experts have different projected timelines for AV market penetration and full adoption, the majority predict Level

?AVs around 2030 Autonomous Vehicle Technologies

?Center for Sustainable Systems, University of Michigan. 2022. “Autonomous Vehicles Factsheet.” Pub. No. CSS16-18. September 2022 Current Limitations and Barriers. There are several limitations and barriers that could impede the adoption of AVs, including the need for sufficient consumer demand, assurance of data security, protection against cyberattacks, regulations compatible with the driverless operation, resolved liability laws, societal attitude and behavior change regarding distrust and subsequent resistance to AV use, and the development of economically viable AV technologies. ?Weather can adversely affect sensor performance on AVs, potentially impeding adoption. Ford recognized this barrier and started conducting AV testing in the snow in 2016 at the University of Michigan’s Mcity testing facility, utilizing technologies suited for poor weather conditions.

Impacts, Solutions, and Sustainability

?Although AVs alone are unlikely to have significant direct impacts on energy consumption and GHG emissions when AVs are effectively paired with other technologies and new transportation models, significant indirect and synergistic effects on economics, the environment, and society are possible. One study found that when eco-driving, platooning, intersection connectivity, and faster highway speeds are considered as direct effects of connected and automated vehicles, energy use and GHG emissions can be reduced by 9%. Congestion is predicted to decrease, reducing fuel consumption by 0-4%. However, decreased congestion is likely to lead to increased vehicle miles traveled (VMT), limiting the fuel consumption benefit. Eco-Driving, a set of practices that reduce fuel consumption, is predicted to reduce energy consumption by up to 20%. However, if AV algorithms do not prioritize efficiency, fuel efficiency may actually decrease. Platooning, a train of detached vehicles that collectively travel closely together, is expected to reduce energy consumption between 3-25% depending on the number of vehicles, their separation, and vehicle characteristics. Vehicle performance, such as fast acceleration, is likely to become de-emphasized when comfort and productivity become travel priorities, potentially leading to a 5-23% reduction in fuel consumption. ?Improved Crash Avoidance will help the increased safety features of AVs, crashes are less likely to occur, allowing for the reduction of vehicle weight and size, and decreasing fuel consumption between 5-23%. Vehicle Right-Sizing ability is to match the utility of a vehicle to a given need. Vehicle right-sizing has the potential to decrease energy consumption between 21-45%, though the full benefits are only likely when paired with a ride-sharing on-demand model. ? Higher Highway Speeds are likely due to improved safety, increasing fuel consumption by 7-30%. AVs are predicted to reduce the cost of traveling due to decreased insurance costs and cost of time due to improvements in productivity and driving comfort. These benefits could result in increased travel potentially increasing energy consumption by 4% to 60%. AVs are likely to increase VMT, especially for elderly and disabled users, and fuel consumption from new users by 2-10%. Ride-sharing on-demand business models are likely to utilize AVs due to the significant reduction of labor costs. The adoption of a ride-sharing model is estimated to reduce energy consumption by 0-20%. Although an accurate assessment of these interconnected impacts cannot currently be made, one study evaluated the potential impacts of four scenarios, each with unknown likelihoods. The most optimistic scenario projected a 40% decrease in total road transport energy and the most pessimistic scenario projected a 105% increase in total road transport energy.

Potential Benefits and Costs

In 2020, U.S. annual vehicular fatality rate was 38,824; 94% of crashes are due to human error. AVs have the potential to remove/reduce human error and decrease deaths. AVs have the potential to reduce crashes by 90%, potentially saving approximately $190 billion per year. ?Potential benefits include improvements in safety and public health; increased productivity, quality of life, mobility, accessibility, and travel, especially for the disabled and elderly; reduction of energy use, environmental impacts, congestion, and public and private costs associated with transportation; and increased adoption of car sharing. Potential costs include increased congestion, VMT, urban sprawl, total time spent traveling, and upfront costs of private car ownership leading to social equity issues; usage impact on other modes of transportation; and increased concern with security, safety, and public health.

Assessing countries’ openness and preparedness for autonomous vehicles

?The world is on the cusp of a transport revolution. Technology is transforming the industry, and the pace of innovation is accelerating. It will affect us all. It will not only change the way we travel but the way we live. It will change the way we spend our time at leisure, and at work. It will change the way businesses import materials, distribute their products, and employ staff. Electric vehicles, mobility on demand, digital railways, drone deliveries, and ultra-high-speed trains are just some of the components of that revolution. But it is autonomous technology that will really transform our lives because it will mean for the first time in history, mobility and freedom will be available for everyone, everywhere. Over the last couple of years, having interacted with governments, city authorities, and businesses about the opportunity created by autonomous vehicles (AVs). While most believe it will be many years before fully autonomous travel is available to all, but the potential benefits of the autonomous revolution are enormous. There will be economic benefits because the time we currently spend driving a car becomes productive time in an AV that can be spent working, relaxing, or sleeping. But moreover, there will be social benefits, including a vast reduction in the 1.3 million people killed each year in car accidents, and accessibility for those who currently cannot drive, because of age or disability. But there are challenges too. Will AVs increase congestion? How can we limit the risks of criminal use? What public transport systems will we need in the future? The size of the global opportunity, and the realization that all over the world authorities were grappling with the same questions, became the inspiration for this Autonomous Vehicles Readiness Index (AVRI). If we could start to show what different countries were doing to prepare for the future, we could spread best practices and open up dialogue. In a small way, this index may serve to accelerate the pace of change for the benefit of society everywhere.

? Introduction: Why policymakers need to focus today on autonomous vehicles The pace of development of AVs is breathtaking. A year ago, some would have argued that they would never become a reality. But now, AVs are being piloted in a number of countries and are running on public roads, albeit only in a handful of locations such as Phoenix in the US State of Arizona and in Singapore. The question is no longer whether but when all road vehicles become fully autonomous. And whether you believe that will take 10 years or 30, the implications are so far-reaching that policymakers need to start planning now for our AV future. Economic and social benefits We believe there will be rapid development and adoption of AVs, because of the alignment of interest of private developers and public authorities. Companies including the dominant vehicle makers, technology giants, and specialist startups have invested US$50 billion over the last 5 years to develop AV technology, with 70 percent of the spending coming from outside the automotive sector.2 At the same time, public authorities can see that AVs offer huge potential economic and social benefits. AVs could eliminate 90–95 percent of road accidents caused by human error,3 saving as many as a million lives every year. Assuming they are electric, they should also reduce road pollution, improving citizens’ health.4 AVs offer mobility benefits to people who are unable to drive at present, including the elderly, those who do not own a car, and those who live in rural areas that do not have adequate public transport. And the hours spent driving which now become productive create a potentially gigantic economic boost, with one study estimating that the US economy could see an uplift of US$1.3 trillion a year.5 For these reasons and others, many governments are keen to move towards an AV future as soon as possible. Planning now for the long term But why act now rather than wait to see how quickly AVs are adopted? A key reason for policymakers to consider AVs now is that the spatial planning and infrastructure investment decisions that we make today will determine the development of our countries and cities for decades. If we anticipate an AV future today, we can avoid wasting taxpayers’ money on investments that may soon prove obsolete, or worse frustrate the realization of AV benefits. AVs imply changes to road infrastructure, including on-road telematics, signage, crash barriers, lane widths, and curbs. They may also affect business cases for public transport schemes, which will need to integrate with AVs, as well as parking schemes and multimodal transport ticketing. AVs will also affect the placement and development of homes and businesses. They could make ride-sharing and mobility as a service scheme more attractive, meaning space currently used for parking can give way to more housing and public spaces in urban areas. But by making longer commutes more attractive, they could also encourage more suburban and rural development.6 Plugging the job and revenue gaps AVs will also have major impacts on public policy outside of transport. For example, many professional drivers are at risk of being replaced by technology. KPMG is supporting a study by a student at Harvard’s Kennedy School on potential job losses, for example in the trucking and taxi markets, and opportunities for new employment in the automotive and supply chain industries. There are also implications for government revenues. At present, taxes on fossil fuels generate billions of dollars,7 while electric vehicles receive subsidies in many countries. This means a shift to electric AVs would create a hole in tax revenues. Authorities need to think through urgently how to recover that lost revenue. For example, road pricing might also help tackle congestion. Enabling AVs Supporting an AV future implies myriad other public policy enablers too. Authorities will want to ensure that AVs are safe, both mechanically and in terms of their security from cyber-attack, so vehicle licensing could change, with new controls on data security.8 Regulations on vehicle insurance will need to adapt, including who is responsible for a driverless vehicle’s actions. Driving licenses could become redundant, although many countries use them as an identity cards. Road traffic regulations, designed for use by humans, will ultimately be replaced by protocols, determining priority at junctions and giving way to emergency vehicles. The data generated by AVs will present particular policy challenges. Questions include the ownership of this data, whether the security of information is a public or private responsibility, and what the data can be exploited for, whether that be advertising, road condition monitoring, or passenger health.9 Different countries may come to different conclusions across these issues. Indeed the optimal AV future of one city may differ from another nearby, depending on patterns of travel and the availability of public transport alternatives. But basic standards of interoperability will need to be put in place across countries and potentially entire continents. The reality is, AVs will have far-reaching implications across numerous areas of policy-making for countries around the world. So now is the time to plan.

Consumer acceptance Technology & innovation Policy & Infrastructure legislation Executive summary The AVRI consists of 4 pillars Ranked within the top 4 of each of the four pillars and on infrastructure The AVRI is intended to provide an understanding of various countries’ preparedness and openness to AV technology. We hope it will assist public authorities, whether at the federal, regional, or city level, to learn from others and speed up adoption, which has the potential to offer many benefits to society. Top-ranked country 20 countries were included based on economic size and progress in adopting AVs.

The bottom 4 countries Conditions for success Although there is a high correlation between the index rankings and overall economic development, the most prepared countries for AVs all have Large-scale testing powered by a strong automotive industry presence. A proactive government that attracts partnerships with manufacturers ... are some distance behind the others, indicating they may be slower to adopt AVs and reap the economic and societal benefits. Russia (18th India (20 ) th) Mexico (19th) Brazil (17th) Singapore: Ranked #1 in policy & legislation and consumer acceptance US: Ranked #1 in technology & innovation with strong industry partnerships Sweden: Ranked #2 in technology & innovation with the highest number of AV company headquarters by population UK: Ranked in the top five for three pillars with strong performance in consumer acceptance and policy & legislation Followed closely by 2 3 4 5 Governments willing to regulate and support AV development Excellent road and mobile network infrastructure Private-sector investment and innovation. Country analysis Policy & legislation Technology & innovation Infrastructure Consumer acceptance. 1The Netherlands 3rd 4th 1st 2nd Key takeaways: The Netherlands provides an AV readiness model for other countries to follow, with excellent road infrastructure, a highly supportive government, and enthusiastic adoption of electric vehicles. The Dutch ecosystem for AVs is ready. The intensively-used Dutch roads are very well developed and maintained and other indicators like telecoms infrastructure are also very strong. In addition, the Dutch government's Ministry of Infrastructure has opened the public roads to largescale tests with self-driving passenger cars and lorries. — Stijn de Groen, Manager, Digital Advisory KPMG in the Netherlands The Netherlands is the clear leader in this first Autonomous Vehicles Readiness Index. It is within the top four of each of the four pillars and ranked number one on infrastructure, most likely due to its heavily-used, well-maintained road network, rated as being among the world’s best by the World Economic Forum and the World Bank. It also has by far the highest density of electric vehicle charging points, with 26,789 publicly-available points in 2016 according to the International Energy Agency’s Global EV Outlook — more than Japan has for a road network more than eight times the length. The Netherlands also has high-quality wireless networks too. As well as having great infrastructure, the country comes second only to Singapore in the consumer acceptance pillar of this research. The Netherlands is the highest of the 20 in the World Economic Forum’s technology readiness rating, among the highest in KPMG’s assessment of societal change readiness, and three-quarters of the population live in areas that are testing AV technology. However, consumer survey data finds the Dutch are less accepting of AV technology than most other countries. It should be noted that this is also, true of several of the best-developed countries and may reflect citizens' relative satisfaction with the existing state of transport. On policy and legislation, the Netherlands received the maximum score for regulations and government investment in AV infrastructure. Its Council of Ministers approved testing in 2015, and it took the lead in establishing the Declaration of Amsterdam through which EU countries agreed to speed the development of self-driving vehicles. Additionally, in February 2017 the government approved a bill to allow AV trials without a driver.10 The Dutch government is investing EUR90 million in adjusting more than 1,000 traffic lights across the country to communicate with vehicles,11 and is backing a plan to establish automated trucks running from Rotterdam to other cities.12 On technology and innovation, the country has by far the highest percentage usage of electric vehicles of the 20 countries in this index at present?— 6.39 percent in 2016 according to the International Energy Agency, nearly double second-placed Sweden — and has a high number of AV companies based in the country on a population-adjusted basis. Startups such as Amber Mobility are challenging incumbents and are broadening existing beliefs and behaviors. Though scoring relatively poorly on AV-related patents and investments, there has been a recent uptick in public-private partnerships, which are further accelerating the development of automotive expertise and innovation capacity. Strong examples include the Automotive High Tech Campus in the Eindhoven area and the connected TU Eindhoven University, which has a specific smart mobility faculty.

Singapore’s 2017 amendment to its Road Traffic Act allowing self-driving vehicles to be tested on public roads has helped the city-state gain a high level of readiness for AVs. Tops two pillars of this index, policy and legislation and consumer acceptance, and Singapore is second only to the Netherlands on infrastructure. On policy and legislation, it receives the maximum score on regulation, with a 2017 amendment to its Road Traffic Act allowing self-driving vehicles to be tested on public roads, and a single entity to coordinate AV work, the Singapore Autonomous Vehicle Initiative announced in 2014. Singapore’s Land Transport Authority (LTA) takes a safety-first approach with AV trials starting on lightly used roads and graduating to more congested environments only after they have demonstrated readiness. All test AVs will be required to log travel data to enable accident investigations and liability claims. On consumer acceptance, the entire city-state of Singapore is effectively a test area for AVs, meaning all residents may see the technology in development. Consumer research suggests they are more open to technology than many other countries, including the Netherlands. The country’s strong scores for infrastructure, including very high road and mobile network quality, are only undermined by a low density of charging stations for electric vehicles. Singapore fails to attain the top spot because of its average performance on technology and innovation. It lacks technology company headquarters, patents, or investment and has a low use of electric cars. This is compensated for by a significant number of industry partnerships, including MIT spin-out Autonomy testing driverless taxis there since 2016, the fact that Uber is widely available, and a good rating from the World Economic Forum on the availability of the latest technology. The Land Transport Authority introduced a regulatory framework that minimizes the occurrence of accidents. Operators are required to have a qualified safety driver who will be able to take control of the vehicle in an emergency, hold third-party liability insurance and share data from the trials with the LTA. ?The US leads the world in AV innovation readiness, including 163 company headquarters. The adoption of national standards would allow this to be better exploited. ?The US has a highly innovative but largely disparate environment with little predictability regarding the uniform adoption of national standards for AVs. Therefore, the prospect of widespread driverless vehicles is unlikely in the near future. However, federal policy and regulatory guidance could certainly accelerate early adoption, particularly concerning limited freight applications such as truck platooning. —

?It scores maximum or near-maximum ratings on industry partnerships, research and development hubs, AV technology company headquarters, investment, and World Economic Forum ratings for technology availability and capacity for innovation. The country has by far the greatest number of AV companies, with 163 headquarters, with second-placed Germany having just 22, although this is adjusted by population for the index. Companies including the Detroit-based ‘Big 3’ auto-makers, other automotive companies, ridesharing companies such as Uber and Lyft and intermodal innovators like Hyperloop are all involved in research. So are companies from other countries, with Japan’s Toyota basing a US$1 billion research hub in Michigan and using a testing proving ground in California. Despite poor scores on patents and low usage of electric cars, currently 0.92 percent, the US is the clear leader in this area.

While the prospect of AV adoption is generating a great deal of enthusiasm, it is also creating a good deal of confusion. The driving public is generally aware that AVs are being tested at numerous sites across the country, but little is clearly understood with regard to the actual capabilities of early vehicles or the timing for adoption. The country has a generally good score on consumer acceptance, boosted by strong ratings from KPMG’s Change Readiness Index and the World Economic Forum, but is undermined by low levels of acceptance of AV technology by consumers and the fact that, despite its 23 test locations being the largest number of any country, only a relatively small proportion of Americans live in them. On infrastructure, the US has relatively few electric vehicle charging stations given the large size of its road network, and a poorer road quality and infrastructure than either the Netherlands or Singapore, although it does well on 4G network coverage. On policy and legislation, the US gains average scores for specific regulations and government investment in AV, and a low rating from the World Economic Forum for effectiveness of its law-making.

?Several initiatives by Volvo support Sweden’s strength in AV innovation. Further development of its electric vehicle charging network and more testing would build on this work. ?Sweden, which has almost the same overall score as the US, ranks between second and eighth across the pillars in this index. It is strongest in the technology and innovation pillar, where it has the highest number of AV company headquarters by the head of the population, a strong showing on AV investments (again, adjusted for population), and one of the highest ratings from the World Economic Forum for the availability of the latest technology. Swedish-based (although Chinese-owned) vehicle maker Volvo has undertaken several AV initiatives, including a US$300 million joint venture with Uber; a safety initiative also involving Autoliv and Ericsson; and research giving self-driving cars to real users on a pre-selected route in Gothenburg. Sweden also has the second-highest electric car share of the 20 countries, at 3.41 percent. Lower scores on industry partnerships, research and development hubs, and patents prevent a higher rank. On policy and legislation, Sweden has one of the highest government capability scores from KPMG’s Change Readiness Index research, but lower ratings on AV-specific areas. However, in 2015, the Swedish government initiated a proposal to regulate trials of self-driving vehicles, concluding that it’s possible to carry out trials at all levels of automation on Swedish roads. As a result, the Road Transportation Authority can, as of July 2017, authorize permits and supervise trials in accordance with the new law. The country is well-rated by the World Bank for road infrastructure but has a tenth of the electric vehicle charging stations of the Netherlands for three times its road network. It is strongly rated by both KPMG’s Change Readiness Index and the World Economic Forum in consumer acceptance, but only a tenth of Swedes live in an AV test area. The Swedish market is more mature than most in terms of AV. Swedish industry has a tradition of striving for innovative and highly technical solutions, closely linked to both research and development and governmental bodies. In addition, it is willing to adopt more sustainable solutions, which may enable flexible and innovative thinking around transportation.

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The UK has begun changing regulations and offering financial support in order to introduce driverless cars by 2021. Improved road and mobile infrastructure would help its readiness. The UK should be well placed for AV adoption, in light of its high population densities; particular issues around congestion, pollution, and safety concerns; and its expected shift from personal vehicle ownership to mobility services, where fleets are more likely to adopt AV due to the cost of drivers. The UK rates in the top five for three pillars, but only tenth on infrastructure. On technology and innovation, the country has good scores on industry partnerships and research and development hubs, as well as high ratings from the World Economic Forum on both technology availability and capacity for innovation, although it has fewer AV patents than other leading nations. On consumer acceptance, it has among the highest ratings from KPMG’s Change Readiness Index and the World Economic Forum, although lower ratings for the proportion of people living in test areas and on consumer acceptance. On policy and legislation, the UK is near the top in AV regulation, with the Department for Transport having determined that it is legal for driverless cars to operate on any public roads without permits or extra insurance and the establishment of a Centre for Connected and Autonomous Vehicles. The government wants to have driverless cars on British roads by 2021 and plans to make further changes to regulations to support this. In his keynote budget speech on 22 November 2017, the finance minister, announced more support for electric vehicles as the precursors to AVs, including a new GBP400m charging infrastructure fund. The UK has strong scores from the World Economic Forum for the effectiveness of law-making and legal system efficiency in challenging regulations, but its rating across this pillar is lowered by fewer government-funded AV pilots and a lower rating on government capability in KPMG’s Change Readiness Index research. Its mid-table performance on infrastructure is due to one of the lowest scores for 4G coverage, along with significant improvements which may be required to the road network. It is third on charging station density, but the Netherlands is so far ahead that this adds little to the UK score. The UK has carved out a niche as an attractive testing and proving ground for AV technology in Europe. This is shown by the range of AV-centered consortia that are benefiting from private and government funding to develop, test and refine AV technology. It has also announced various rounds of funding, including in 2016 GBP390 million for low emission and AVs. By not ratifying the Vienna Convention on Road Traffic and allowing the piloting of fully autonomous vehicles on public roads without the need for primary legislation, the UK has created a supportive environment for the development of connected and AV technologies.

??The UK on policy and legislation, receives high scores on government investment in AV infrastructure and pilots, with its government legislating in 2017 to allow tests of self-driving cars on public roads, and it rates consistently well on other variables. In 2013, the Ministry of Transport established the Automated Driving Round Table, an advisory body linking industry, academia, associations, and public administration. On technology and innovation, it scores the highest marks on industry partnerships and on research and development hubs. Digital test beds financed with EUR100 million from the government include the Digital Motorway Test Bed established on the A9 motorway by the transport ministry, the state of Bavaria, and automotive and technology industry bodies. Germany is second only to Japan on AV patents issued per capita. But while the country has the highest possible score for road infrastructure and rates well on both road and mobile network quality, it has poor 4G coverage and a middling rating for technology infrastructure from KPMG’s Change Readiness Index. It has no ongoing AV tests and a low acceptance of the technology by consumers, explaining its relatively low rank in consumer acceptance. Germany believes it has the most innovative road traffic law in the world, governing interaction between drivers and vehicles with conditional or highly automated driving functions. However, there is a risk that the legislation could discourage AV use since the driver may be liable for damages, even if an accident is caused by the vehicle. ?Germany performs strongly on industry partnerships, research and development, and road infrastructure quality, although consumers are yet to be persuaded of the benefits of AVs.

The UAE scores well on both policy and legislation and on infrastructure. On the former, it is credited for having a specific AV function within its transport department, for quality of regulation, and for government capability in KPMG’s Change Readiness Index. On infrastructure, it has the highest ratings of all 20 countries in this research for road quality from the World Economic Forum and for technology infrastructure from the Change Readiness Index. However, the research suggests that the UAE lacks AV technology company headquarters, patents, or investments, largely explaining its lower rating on technology and innovation. Consumer survey data shows a high level of acceptance of AV technology, but KPMG’s Change Readiness Index rates the country lower than others for people and civil society’s use of technology. Dubai’s desire to excel in the field of artificial intelligence, big data, and data analytics, which it will overlay on its existing ‘hard’ infrastructure, will ensure that the UAE will be at the vanguard of the AV revolution. The learnings from its successful implementation of driverless trains and its initiative on flying taxis will ensure its leadership position in this field is maintained. Microsoft, Facebook, and drone delivery company Flirtey have used it as a development lab. Christchurch has hosted the world’s first fully AV trial at an international airport.

South Korea is fourth on infrastructure, with the best 4G coverage of the 20?countries in this research; such networks are available to users 96 percent of the time. In general, it has excellent mobile networks as well as good quality roads. It is mid-table on technology and innovation, scoring top marks on industry partnerships and research and development hub presence and well on patents. However, it has few AV technology company headquarters, low usage of electric cars and Uber has little presence in the country, with its UberX service unavailable following regulatory action in 2014. However, Kakao Taxi, a local alternative, has several million users. The country scores well on AV-specific policy and legislation variables, with maximum points for government investment in pilots and AV infrastructure. The government claims that its K-City facility, which opened in October 2017, with a target of completion by next year, is the world’s largest test bed for self-driving cars. It has also authorized AVs to operate temporarily on public roads, with research licenses issued to Naver Labs, Hyundai Motor, Seoul National University, Hanyang University, Hyundai Mobis, Traffic Safety Corporation, and KAIST. It's weaker overall rating in this pillar is due to low scores from both KPMG’s Change Readiness Index and the World Economic Forum. To enhance public acceptance, by the end of 2017, the South Korean government is planning to launch an unmanned autonomous shuttle service as a demonstration project.

?As with South Korea, Japan does very well on infrastructure but less so elsewhere. Its third place on infrastructure is due to 4G network availability second only to South Korea and high ratings for its roads, road infrastructure, and mobile network quality. The country wants to build the world’s best intelligent transport system to support AVs, but it receives middling scores on AV-specific policy and legislation variables, although it does well on government funding of pilots. A May 2017 Road map states the government’s aim to have the world’s safest road transport by 2020 and to build and maintain “a society with the world’s safest and smoothest road transport” by 2030. It also wants to expand the export of intelligent vehicles and infrastructure via public-private collaboration and to become a global hub of innovation. ?On technology and innovation, Japan has the highest number of AV-related patents of any country in this research, adjusted for population, and receives high marks for industry partnerships. However, it has relatively few AV technology company headquarters and Uber has a low market presence in the country. Its consumers are among the most cynical about AV technology and very few live in test site cities, contributing to its bottom-five ranking for consumer acceptance. Much of the expectation for AVs in Japan is based on how such technology can help its aging population. There has been an increase in the number of car accidents involving older drivers and AVs would allow them to drive with comfort and safety.

??India is among the bottom three countries in all four pillars of the index. Its government has effectively banned AVs, with road transport and highways minister Nitin Gadkari saying in July 2017 that it would not allow driverless cars as they would take people’s jobs. As a result, India has been given a score of zero in many policy and legislation categories, including those covering regulation and government investment. India has ambitions, with its Automotive Mission Plan aiming to bring its automotive industry into the top three in the world in engineering, manufacturing, and export of vehicles and components. The government of India has also set an ambitious goal of achieving 100 percent electric vehicle mobility by 2030. However, it scores poorly on road safety, accounting for 10 percent of global road accidents according to the International Road Federation. Given the overall socio-economic benefits of autonomous transport and the strong entrepreneurial ecosystem, India could become an important AV market in the long term. But at present, on technology and innovation, it scores minimally for lack of patents and investments and low usage of electric cars. On infrastructure, it scores poorly for mobile network quality and in KPMG’s Change Readiness Index technology infrastructure rating. On consumer acceptance, survey data suggests Indians are among the most accepting of AV technology — but the evidence from the rest of the data is that they are unlikely to get much chance to use it. India While the degree of readiness for autonomous transportation might vary across countries, the overall economic and social benefits of driverless cars may make it impossible for a country like India to ignore this exciting technology for a long.

?CONCLUSION

?AV technology is developing very rapidly. It is rare for a week to pass without a major manufacturer, city, or region announcing a new product alliance, trial, or investment. Private-sector research and testing is an essential element in the development of AV, with three of the top five countries in this index’s first edition having significant domestic AV capability. But on its own, it is not sufficient, as reflected in the US’ third place. While the US is the clear global leader in innovation, it has an average rating on legislation and does little better on infrastructure. Sweden and Germany, which are second and third in technology and innovation, are similarly let down by moderate performances elsewhere. Road transport relies on the quality of road infrastructure as well as the regulatory environment that determine access to that infrastructure. Strong performances in both these areas give Singapore the second-highest score in the index, despite a less impressive rating on technology, and boosts the overall rank of the UAE. Poor showings on infrastructure undermine the ambitions of the UK, Canada, and New Zealand. The Netherlands leads this index because it performs strongly across all four pillars of research, showing how both its private and public sectors are highly engaged. It is already a big user of electric vehicles but it also has excellent infrastructure and a government determined to take advantage of AV.

We would highlight three areas for particular focus: 1. Plan today for an AV future, by revising national and local transport strategies and spatial development blueprints. Support the introduction of electric vehicles through measures to increase the number of electric charging points. Invest in high-quality AV-ready road infrastructure and next-generation mobile communication technologies. Consider strategies to mitigate the likely impact on jobs in the taxi and trucking industries. Develop alternative revenue streams to offset the loss of fuel tax. Revise laws as necessary to ensure vehicles are safe, insurance regimes remain robust and data security and data privacy concerns are met. It is not a question of if but when AV becomes ubiquitous in the world, yet most authorities continue to invest scarce resources on the basis of transport and spatial development plans which are rapidly becoming obsolete while ignoring their impact in other areas. ?The policy and legislation pillar is based on seven variables, four scored specifically for this index and three drawing on existing research. Singapore is the clear leader, followed by New Zealand — outperforming its overall ninth place — and the Netherlands. The US significantly underperforms in this pillar, lying tenth. The bottom four countries, in this pillar and in the index as a whole, score significantly less than the others although Russia is above the other three. The four variables scored for this index are the quality of AV regulations; whether the country has established an AV department within the government’s transportation department; government investment in AV infrastructure; and the number of government-funded AV pilots. Singapore gains maximum scores in three of these categories and the Netherlands in two. India scores zero in all four, given its apparent ban on AVs. The other three variables are the KPMG Change Readiness Index’s score for government capability and the World Economic Forum’s ratings for the effectiveness of law-making bodies and the efficiency of the legal system in challenging regulations. Singapore receives the maximum scores and Brazil the minimum for the first two. New Zealand gains top marks, with Russia getting the least, for the legal system efficiency measure.