The Drake equation and the future of our civilization

I recently came across the Drake Equation in an astronomy article. This equation is used to estimate the potential number of civilizations in our galaxy, factoring in elements such as planetary conditions, life emergence, and technological development.

One particularly thought-provoking factor in this equation is L, which represents the longevity of a civilization. It highlights how long a civilization can sustain itself before succumbing to crises, many of which arise from its own technological advancements, such as wars, resource depletion, or environmental disasters.

This resonated deeply with me. In my work, I focus on the viability of places, particularly in connection with the businesses operating within them. The factor L and its relationship with technological creation led me to visualize three successive waves of transformation that humanity has experienced:

1. The first wave: The shift from manual labor closely tied to the land to machine-powered production. This revolutionized efficiency, allowing us to extract and process resources at an unprecedented scale, fueling the industrial revolution.
2. The second wave: The transition from machines to the digital era, where web technologies and digital content became central. This shifted our economies and daily interactions from the physical world to screens, altering the way we perceive and interact with reality.
3. The third wave: The rise of artificial intelligence, taking digital content creation to an entirely new level. AI now generates vast amounts of information, further immersing us in virtual experiences and accelerating our reliance on digital ecosystems.

Each wave has brought remarkable progress, but also two critical consequences:

1. A growing disconnection from reality: Each technological leap has distanced us further from the tangible world around us. The time spent in front of screens has exploded, and now AI is generating even more content to keep us engaged, pulling us deeper into virtual spaces.
2. An escalating extraction from the Earth: Every technological advancement requires ever-greater amounts of raw materials. From smartphones to data centers powering AI, the demand for minerals and energy is skyrocketing, with severe environmental consequences.

The more we innovate, the more we construct an artificial world that detaches us from the physical realities of our places. Virtual experiences lead to even more virtuality, creating a self-reinforcing cycle that moves us away from the land and the interconnected systems that sustain life.

This brings us back to L, the longevity of our civilization. Despite the power of our technology, we are extracting resources at an unsustainable rate, triggering cascading consequences that could undermine our own future.

We must re-anchor ourselves in the tangible realities of our places. At this scale, there is no room for illusions: climate, biodiversity, local economies, and communities are all intertwined in the same space. The fate of businesses, people, and ecosystems are deeply connected.

The trajectory of L is not set in stone. A shift in paradigm is essential to break the cycle. The regenerative approach offers a way to rethink our relationship with technology, resources, and our environment, one that ensures not just sustainability, but the long-term habitability of our planet.

Will we choose to extend L, or will we let it define our limits?