The Downside of Being Up

Optimists rule the world. They are our entrepreneurs, teachers, politicians, scientists, and greatest thinkers. We are taught this at a young age, and it is reinforced through books with lofty titles like Optimists Rule the World. Turns out, it is actually more of a cliché than a deep truth: we are all optimists (yes, even you, Mr. Negative Nilly). So we assume that the most optimistic among us will ultimately be the most successful, but when is too much optimism simply too much?

Our brains are inherently geared toward positive outcomes. As a result, we generally think optimistically. Scientists call this optimism bias, and it infects virtually all of our thinking. We tend to believe we are better looking, healthier, wealthier, and overall more likely to succeed than we actually are. We are the mental equivalents of yearning tweens thinking we are, in fact, venerable teens, who in turn think of themselves as 21 (of course, the reverse is true of us old folks).

In general, this is a good thing. Optimism allows us to see into the future and believe a better state exists. And it helps us overcome risk aversion. Optimism bias is what drove Mark Zuckerberg and Bill Gates to quit Harvard and start businesses. It is what nearly drove Elon Musk to bankruptcy on his quest to build Tesla, SpaceX, and a legion of other companies. And it is how evolution propels people to have children and make a better life for them.

When we consider a success story in hindsight, we simply call it confidence. But optimism bias is responsible for big successes as well as big problems. For every Zuckerberg or Gates, there are countless dropouts with failed businesses. Musk may still end up bankrupt for his efforts. More generally, consider our enthusiasm for gambling and lotteries, despite knowing how bad the odds are. Losing money is no fun, but an even worse consequence of optimism bias is when people become overly optimistic about their health and choose to avoid medicine that could save their lives.

When you think deeply about your own optimism, consider whether it could be restrictive. I, for example, am an optimist to a fault. The glass certainly isn’t half empty on my table. But it isn’t half full either. It is completely full, part water part air. And there is a lot you can do with air and water. I am an optimist to the extreme—given enough time and resources, I believe few things are impossible. This has led to many successes in my life, but also more than a few failures.

Even if you aren’t an extremist like me, you can fall prey to your own optimism. There is no cure and that is a good thing, but it’s important to prevent yourself from falling victim to too much of a good thing. The single best approach is to focus on real hard facts. Thinking you can beat a disease without drugs? Consider what the facts tell you rather than your gut instinct. Thinking you can be the next Zuck? Consider the failure rates of startups. Thinking you can win the lottery? Well, you can’t. (But it sure is fun to try!)

If all else fails, go for it. Who knows, maybe you can beat the odds.

Note: A version of this article was first published in USA Today, but because of the importance of the subject matter, we felt it was worth including on Linkedin, where we tend to get more feedback and a lively discussion.