By now, most people have recognized that bitcoin is doing well and that we're in a crypto bull market. But what about Ethereum, "Eth"? In my opinion, it's not doing well and it's overvalued. Here's why:
- This current bull market is all about Bitcoin, whose narrative is strong and simple, it's "digital gold", a store of value, a tool to protect your assets, and fight inflation. Eth does not really have a narrative this year, it still wants to be the "world computer" and "programmable money", something many other blockchains do as well.
- There are no applications and no users. If Eth wants to be programmable money, then why isn't somebody programming something useful with it? Eth's popularity came and went with its applications, starting with "Krypto Kittens" in 2016, then the ICO craze of late 2017, then DeFi, and finally NFTs in 2021/2022. What is there now? All I see are some rather boring staking and re-staking applications, which do nothing but generate a mediocre yield.
- Fundamentals and economics look weak: Eth was the first truly programmable blockchain, but its technology is outdated, slow, and expensive by now. The Ethereum community has reacted to that and implemented many (smart and useful) extensions to these challenges, but the main goal of those seem to be to drive down transactions prices. That's important to stay competitive, but bad news for Ethereum holders whose staking rewards depend on those revenues. Ethereum is even actively pushing revenue to its layer-2-blockchains! Therefore, buying Ethereum can be compared to buying a stock in a company who works to drive down revenues and profits!
- Competition is increasingly looking strong: I have to admit, Ethereum is still very much king in crypto-land, but what's worrying is that almost every exciting recent project seems to have chosen other blockchains to run on. The many new memecoins run on Solana, and many of the successful RWA platforms (real-word-assets) run on multiple other blockchains that offer faster and cheaper transactions.
For Ethereum to rally again, the community needs come up with a fresh narrative and at least one new application / project. The people are there, the money is there - why is it not happening?
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7 个月This is extremely insightful ???? Ulrik Deichsel
Business Development at Bullish
8 个月You’re killing the “open source app store” narrative with this Ulrik Deichsel !!!??