Doug Ford Crushes Ontario Election with 43% - Trump Shocked!

On February 28, 2025, Doug Ford, the brash and polarizing Premier of Ontario, stood victorious once again, securing a rarely achieved third term for his Progressive Conservative Party in Canada’s most populous province. The Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (CBC) projected a commanding win, with Ford’s party capturing 43% of the vote in an election he called more than a year early. Ford’s gamble paid off, not just in electoral terms but in reframing his political identity. Once a right-wing populist known for domestic controversies, Ford has now positioned himself as Canada’s defiant anti-Trump figurehead, rallying Ontarians against the looming threat of 25% tariffs from the United States.

Ford’s victory speech encapsulated this shift. “As we stare down the threat of Donald Trump’s tariffs … I will work with every level of government and every political stripe because fighting back against Donald Trump, standing up for Canada, it will take a full Team Ontario effort,” he declared. It was a call to unity, a promise of resilience, and a shrewd political pivot that turned an external threat into a domestic mandate. With Ontario’s economy—particularly its manufacturing sector—deeply intertwined with the U.S., Ford’s messaging struck a chord. But this win was about more than economics; it was a masterstroke of timing, strategy, and a province-wide rejection of letting Trump dictate Canada’s future.

The Early Election Gamble

Ford’s decision to call an election in the dead of winter, with much of Ontario still buried under snowstorms, was a bold and unconventional move. Ontario elections typically avoid the colder months, and on election day, voters trudged through icy streets to cast their ballots, resulting in a turnout of just 42.62%, according to Elections Ontario. Critics questioned the necessity of the snap election—Ford already commanded a majority in the provincial legislature—but political analysts like Laura Stephenson, a professor at Western University, saw it as a calculated bet. “Calling the election was Ford’s way of securing a stronger mandate to confront Trump’s tariffs,” Stephenson noted. “He turned a foreign policy issue into a provincial rallying cry.”

The timing wasn’t accidental. Trump, newly returned to the White House, had reignited his aggressive trade rhetoric, threatening 25% tariffs on goods from Canada and Mexico as a means to pressure both nations into compliance with his administration’s demands. For Ontario, a manufacturing powerhouse that exports heavily to the U.S., the stakes couldn’t be higher. Automotive plants, steel mills, and countless small businesses rely on seamless cross-border trade. A 25% tariff could devastate jobs, spike consumer prices, and unravel decades of economic integration. Ford seized on this fear, donning a “Canada is not for sale” hat and making two high-profile trips to Washington, D.C., during the campaign to lobby against the tariffs. The hat became a symbol, and the trips underscored his willingness to fight.

A Province Under Pressure

Ford’s opponents—the New Democrats (NDP) and Liberals—struggled to shift the narrative. Ontario, home to 35% of Canada’s population and over 14 million residents, faces pressing domestic challenges that should have dominated the election. Healthcare, a perennial issue, has reached crisis levels: 2.5 million Ontarians lack a primary care provider, a dramatic rise from 1.8 million in 2020. Wait times for surgeries stretch into months, and emergency rooms are overwhelmed. Then there are the scandals dogging Ford’s tenure—accusations of cronyism, controversial land deals, and a heavy-handed approach to governance. Yet, these issues failed to gain traction.

Why? Trump loomed larger than any local grievance. “Ford’s rivals couldn’t compete with the visceral urgency of an external threat,” said Semra Sevi, a politics professor at the University of Toronto. “Voters saw tariffs as a clear and immediate danger, and Ford positioned himself as the guy with the plan.” The NDP and Liberals, bogged down in policy debates and lacking a unifying counter-narrative, couldn’t break through. Ford’s campaign, by contrast, was simple and visceral: Ontario first, Canada strong, Trump be damned.

The Anti-Trump Crusader

Ford’s transformation into an anti-Trump warrior is a remarkable twist for a politician once compared to the former U.S. president. A right-wing populist with a penchant for blunt talk and tax cuts, Ford swept to power in 2018 on a platform of “Ford Nation”—a nod to his blue-collar base and a promise to slash government waste. His early years were marked by clashes with unions, cuts to public services, and a pugnacious style that earned him both loyal fans and fierce detractors. Parallels to Trump were inevitable: both were outsiders who thrived on disruption, distrusted elites, and spoke directly to working-class frustrations.

But where Trump now wields economic threats from Washington, Ford has cast himself as the defender of Canadian sovereignty. Trump’s bombastic claim that he could use tariffs to turn Canada into the “51st state” only fueled Ford’s fire. The premier’s “Canada is not for sale” mantra wasn’t just a slogan—it was a rejection of American overreach, a line in the sand that resonated across party lines. Even progressive voters, wary of Ford’s domestic record, found themselves nodding along. In a province where cross-border ties are a fact of life—Ontario exports over $200 billion annually to the U.S., much of it to neighboring states like Michigan and Ohio—Trump’s threats felt personal.

Ford’s trips to Washington were a calculated show of strength. Meeting with U.S. lawmakers and trade officials, he argued that tariffs would hurt American workers as much as Canadians, pointing to the integrated supply chains that define the Great Lakes region. Back home, he framed these efforts as proof of his leadership. “I’m not going to sit back and let Donald Trump bully us,” he told a crowd in Windsor, a city whose auto industry hangs in the balance. The message worked.

A Ripple Effect Beyond Ontario

Ford’s victory may signal broader shifts in Canadian politics. At the federal level, the Liberal Party, led by Justin Trudeau’s successor after his resignation, has seen a dramatic resurgence. Just days before Ontario’s election, on February 25, 2025, Liberal leadership candidates—including former Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney and former Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland—debated in Montreal ahead of a March 9 vote to replace Trudeau. Anti-Trump sentiment has galvanized their base, mirroring Ford’s strategy. Polls show the Liberals climbing after months of decline, buoyed by a public increasingly anxious about U.S. aggression.

“Ontario’s results show how external factors—like Trump’s tariffs—can significantly shape the political climate and voter priorities,” Sevi observed. A federal election, expected later in 2025, could hinge on the same dynamics. If Ford’s win is a bellwether, Canada’s next prime minister will need to channel that same defiance, balancing economic pragmatism with national pride. The Liberals, long seen as the party of free trade and diplomacy, may find Ford—an unlikely ally—has paved the way.

The Road Ahead

Ford’s third term begins under a cloud of uncertainty. Trump’s tariffs remain a threat, not a reality, and their implementation depends on negotiations, congressional approval, and the unpredictable whims of a president known for volatility. Ford has vowed a “Team Ontario” approach, but specifics are scarce. Will he push for retaliatory measures, seek exemptions for key industries, or lean on Ottawa to lead the fight? His majority—projected to deliver at least 70 of 124 seats—gives him leverage, but the province’s economic fate rests on forces beyond his control.

Domestically, Ford can’t ignore the cracks in Ontario’s foundation. Healthcare won’t fix itself, and 2.5 million people without a family doctor demand action. Housing costs are soaring, infrastructure is aging, and climate change looms as snowstorms—like those that blanketed election day—grow fiercer. Ford’s ability to juggle these crises while staring down Trump will define his legacy.

For now, though, he’s riding high. The man in the “Canada is not for sale” hat has turned a winter election into a springboard, proving that even in a province weary of his scandals, fear of the neighbor to the south trumps all. Ontario has spoken: Doug Ford, for better or worse, is their guy. And as Trump’s shadow lengthens, Canada’s anti-Trump crusader is just getting started.