Doomsday comet will not hit Earth in 2126
I came across an old newspaper clipping of the Sunday Times I collected on 29 November 1992. The headline in large bold read “DOOMSDAY; Aug 14, 2126? This article reported on the new sighting and naming of the 10 km wide Swift-Tuttle comet, that has a 1 in 10,000 chance of hitting the earth. The article goes into speculation of what the impact would look like, and its negative impact on the weather and biosphere, and likened it to the extinction of the dinosaurs.
This seemed somewhat intriguing, particularly as the climate change lobby would have nothing to frighten us with compared to this impending event.
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So, I looked it up on Wikipedia: Comet Swift–Tuttle?(formally designated?109P/Swift–Tuttle) is a large?periodic?comet?with a 1995 (osculating)?orbital period?of 133 years. The comet was independently discovered by?Lewis Swift?on July 16, 1862 and by?Horace Parnell Tuttle?on July 19, 1862. Its?nucleus?is 26?km (16?mi) in diameter. In 2126, it will be a bright naked-eye comet reaching an?apparent magnitude?of about 0.7. The comet is on an?orbit?that makes repeated close approaches to the?Earth-Moon?system. Subsequent observations (degrading change to stable orbit) have led to recalculation of its orbit, which indicates the comet's orbit is sufficiently stable that there is absolutely no threat over the next two thousand years.?It is now known that the comet will pass 0.153?AU?(22.9?million?km; 14.2?million?mi) from Earth on August 5, 2126?and within 0.147?AU (22.0?million?km; 13.7?million?mi) from Earth on August 24, 2261. A close encounter with Earth is predicted for the comet's return to the inner Solar System in the year 3044, with the closest approach estimated to be one million miles (1,600,000?km; 0.011?AU).?Another close encounter is predicted for the year 4479, around Sept. 15; the close approach is estimated to be less than 0.05?AU, with a probability of impact of 1 in a million.
So, I guess this is a let-off for the climate extremists, in that they can go on predicting their version for the doom of the Earth.
Managing Director at Badley Geoscience Ltd
1 年I for one am relieved. I’ll be 148 that day.
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1 年Comparing a comet collision to climate change is pretty strange. Sure if there was a 100% certainty that the comet would destroy human life, then we might not be so concerned about climate change globally. But even if it was a 1 in 10,000 change, then it it would be wise to act on climate change for that 9,999 in 10,000 change that the comet doesn’t wipe us out. And I think something that is missing in this representation is that it is not only extremist Greenies who are concerned about climate change. Climate change concerns are clearly different to some of the extremist Greenie doomsday predictions of the past. Climate change concern is about the scientists and the moderates of the world and not the extremist greenies or the extremist deniers. It was not the scientific consensus that made the doomsday predictions of the past so you are comparing apples with oranges. As it turns out, even 50 year old climate models have proven to be correct. https://thehill.com/changing-america/sustainability/climate-change/473684-even-50-year-old-climate-models-correctly/amp/