Don’t Piss on My Shoes and Tell Me It’s Raining: a Mid-Year Review for the 2024 Job Market

I’m a passionate person and an aficionado of, well, everything I care about. This means that I “go deep” on the subjects that interest me and can even be a tad evangelical about them too… I guess I just feel compelled to share the "good news." Fortunately, this disposition results in vigorous representation for my clients and candidates and in my personal life has turned family and friends on to clothing brands, restaurants, college degree programs, stock picks, and vacation destinations that they might have otherwise overlooked.?

There are, however, instances where my interest veer off and become too obscure for my own good or that of anyone else’s. Examples of this is my appreciation for Ford’s indomitable 4.6L V8 engine that they put in sedans such as the Crown Victoria, Lincoln Town Car, and Jaguar XJ from the late 90s through the 2008 automotive crisis. Despite never owning one, I can’t help but share their merits with those around me every time I see one of these rear wheel drive beauties floating down the road. Hamm’s Beer is another one. In my estimation it ought to be the best selling beer in America due to the simple fact that its a full-bodied lager with a per can price that's cheaper than La Croix. I also hate wearing blue?jeans.?

It’s my waxing on these "oddball" affections that usually elicits the “don’t piss on my shoes and tell me it’s raining” quip from my wife; and I recognize that she’s probably right to say as much. After all, a car commonly used as an airport taxi isn’t that special, there are many reasons to drink beer other than Hamm’s, and Levi's are universally accepted to be awesome. That said, as a headhunter who pays attention to leading economic indicators and keeps a close eye on the mood of his candidates and clients, seeing other recruiters post on LinkedIn that this job market is “hot” strikes me as equally obtuse; if not at the very least, insensitive to the increase of half a million US workers who have filed for unemployment since January 1.?

So, with it now being mid-year, I thought it’d be a good time to take an unfiltered look at the 2024 employment data and overall economic trends. High-level, here's what's really going on: unemployment is slightly up, separations are flat, and new job openings have modestly improved. Unlike the AI inspired bull run in financial markets, we in labor have been riding post pandemic waves such as 2022's "Great Resignation" to the more recently coined "Big Stay." I actually find these terms to be overamped and think they belie the real driver behind hiring and what truly inspires people to change jobs. In a word, the key is always confidence.

To further illustrate, I pulled the Bureau of Labor Statistics' month-over-month job openings data from January 2021 to present and created the graph below. What initially caught my attention was the steady increase in hiring that began in January of 2021 and persisted through the end of 2022. Job openings declined and unemployment has been increasing since January, 2023 (see second graph).

But what does it all mean? where might we be headed in the year's second half? and how to act accordingly? In searching for the answers to these questions its important to keep in mind that people have a bias toward absolutes and that there are no easy answers during uncertain times. Regardless of the season, I always caution against thinking its a bad time to look for a work or an easy time to hire - the best time to do anything was 10 years ago and job changes have tremendous implications. Anyway, if you are on the market or hiring, its important to keep in mind that the 2024 job openings are still about 20% higher than the pre-pandemic norms (Jan. 2014 - Mar. 2020) and unemployment is about 50% lower than it was in 2015. This means demand for workers remains tight and hiring for specific skill sets will likely prove challenging, especially considering the "stickiness" indicated by the flat separation rate.

In addition, I would also suggest taking a few contextual factors into account. The first being that the RIFs, which have been so often highlighted on LinkedIn post over the past 18 months, have occurred in job functions that are essential for growth but inessential for subsistence: i.e. sales, marketing, project management, HR, talent acquisition, and customer support. Seldom does one find a terminated accounting, technology, or product candidate on the market, though its also true that these same functions haven't been hiring as much either. Whether you want to fault interest rates, pandemic era valuations coming back to earth, or leadership teams who saw profit as a secondary consideration (the answer is All of the Above), we are nevertheless 18-months into a period of market wide malaise. I'm an avid investor in Salesforce and found their CFO Amy Weaver's explanation for CRM's lack luster revenue growth on May 29th to have summed up the whole state of affairs quite nicely: "The result was at the lower end of our guided range due to continuing pressures on professional services, some license revenue volatility, and the continued measured buying environment."

Mix jobs numbers, the market correcting post-pandemic exuberance, and the ever present influence of public perception, you might think I'm about to end on a low note but in fact I'm optimistic about how 2024 will end. As I said, people tend to error toward absolutes and pendulums swing in both directions. Right now, a lot companies are hungry to grow again, there are probably even more workers ready to make a move, and there's a whole lot of FOMO to catch-up on. Knowing how Presidential elections tend to put everything on edge, I'm forecasting a modestly improved holding pattern of current conditions through November and a very active 2025. To put it another way, I think that we can all take heart in knowing that though our shoes may be wet, it's only water and sandal season is just around the corner.

Thanks for reading and please reach out if you'd care to discuss any of this further, explore new opportunities, or hire with the Illyrian Group .

Corbin

312.544.9237 | [email protected]

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