Don’t let the perfect be the enemy of the good: One State Approach?

The Israel/Palestine conflict has been described as one of the world’s most intractable hot zones with potential to ignite the region and beyond.? Gaza has long been a powder keg. Here’s a look at the history of the embattled region.

The two state solution has been historically presented to reduce the tensions, but it has not been able to adequately address physical borders, governance and security, settlers and settlement, displaced refugees and right to return, and sharing Jerusalem, hence, tensions simmer and then spike, it seems, periodically like clockwork.

The decades of conferences, Madrid Conference of 1991 - Wikipedia, peace initiatives, Arab Peace Initiative - Wikipedia, and accords, Oslo Accords,? around a two state solution has neither brought Israeli security nor Palestinians an independent state. Two states DNR (do not revive) or dead?? Israel-Hamas war: Is the two-state solution dead? - Northeastern Global News??

Two State Solution Challenges

"I do not think a two-state solution is possible, and, even if possible, it is not advisable. For more than 50 years, hundreds of self-proclaimed ‘peacemakers,’ led by the United States, have attempted to coerce Israel and the Palestinians into a two-state solution," former U.S. Ambassador to Israel David Friedman” Biden admin continues push for two-state solution as critics warn: ‘efforts repeatedly fail’?

‘Support for a two-state solution on both sides has tanked…A Gallup poll of Palestinians taken a week before the October 7 attacks showed support at just 25 per cent – down from nearly 60 per cent a decade ago.

‘Support has also dropped among Jewish Israelis…In 2019, Rand Corporation conducted 33 focus groups in the region, testing attitudes towards five alternatives:

• the status quo
• a two-state solution
• a confederation
• Israeli annexation of Palestinian territory
• A one-state solution

‘None were acceptable to a majority of both Israelis and Palestinians…Jewish Israelis preferred the status quo, but Palestinians hated it…Rand Corporation found the two-state solution was the most politically viable alternative, but even then it attracted heavy skepticism…Palestinians in Gaza were the only group to rate a one-state solution over the two-state solution – and not by much.

What are the one-state and two-state solutions for the Israel-Gaza war? - ABC News?

Time to disrupt the old thinking and approach?

With 100 days passing since October 7 massacre of innocent civilian Israeli lives, 1200 lives and 240 hostages -with pause in November with exchange of hostages for prisoners-, and massive retaliation, aerial and ground, by US supported Israeli military, resulting nearly 23,000 Palestinians killed, Gaza decimated to ‘moon looking geography’ rubble, 90% of Gaza population displaced/evacuated to the south, Israel-Hamas: Will War Spread to Hezbollah and 'Axis of Resistance'? - Bloomberg? escalated violence in west bank, Growing Israeli settler violence and army raids in the West Bank raise tensions : NPR? Lebanon based Hezbollah trading missile fire with Israel, Hezbollah hits Israel with heavy rocket barrages, anti-tank missile attacks, Yemen based Houthi firing missiles/drones towards Israel and ships in Red Sea,? Live updates: Israel-Hamas war, Houthi strikes, Gaza crisis, and South Africa genocide case against Isarel What is South Africa’s genocide case against Israel at the ICJ?, and, where, ‘Israel often boycotts international tribunals and U.N. investigations, saying they are unfair and biased. But this time, Israeli leaders took the rare step of sending a high-level legal team — a sign of how seriously they regard the case and likely their fear that any court order to halt operations would be a major blow to the country's international standing.’ Israel defends itself at the UN's top court against allegations of genocide in Gaza?

Thus, it may be time to table and have serious discussions for? the ‘non-acceptable/non-liked’ one state solution.

Netanyahu Operating a One State Sovereign?

From Time Magazine, Israel's Bitter Lessons From the Hamas War, Three Months In | TIME,? ‘In 1967, the IDF astounded the world by defeating Egypt, Jordan, and Syria in six days—capturing the Sinai, the Gaza Strip, the West Bank, and the Golan Heights. But in more than 90 days, it (Netanyahu led government) has not been able to achieve victory in Gaza; the total elimination of Hamas is a seemingly impossible goal.’?

‘A [fourth] lesson centers on Netanyahu himself. He is continuing to play politics, postponing any investigation into who’s to blame for the security failures of Oct. 7, while he tries to wear the mantle of a heroic wartime Prime Minister. Israeli columnists highlighted the CIA’s conclusion that he is prolonging the war for his own selfish interests, to remain in power as corruption charges continue to play out at a snail’s pace in court. To maintain his coalition, he keeps bending to the will of extreme rightwing cabinet ministers who are intent on retaining the West Bank forever—and now talk about taking over the Gaza Strip and expelling the 2.2 million Palestinians who live there...The results of Netanyahu’s narrow-minded path have led to catastrophe for both Israelis and Palestinians and nearly constant border fire between Israel and Hezbollah.’

Are Netanyahu ‘governing actions’ comprise that of a one state 'sovereign’ for Israelis and Palestinians?

Trauma of War & Day After Planning

‘For both Israelis and Palestinians, the war has been a trauma that looks likely to last for years, deepening the hostility and mistrust that have stood in the way of peace [ie, two state solution] for more than 75 years.

"No one will win," said Rebecca Brindza, a spokesperson for families of the 240 Israelis and foreigners seized as hostages during attack on communities around the Gaza Strip that opened the war on Oct. 7.’ Mental strain, deepening risks as Israel's war with Hamas reaches 100 days | Reuters?

Now, the increasing emphasis and ensuing focus, led by the US, is what happens next: plans for Day After, in Gaza, west bank, Israel and, consequently, address the wider implications, ie, expansion of the conflict, for and beyond the region.??

After Israel left Gaza in 2005, settlers and soldiers, and with Hamas, plurality victory over Palestinian Authority Fatah in 2006, ‘governing’ Gaza, there was no peace, no security for Israel, no Palestinian state. The Palestinian Authority Fatah governed parts of the west bank and cooperated with Israel on security.

Thus, one can possibly, if not plausibly, say, Hamas [elected] in Gaza and Israel as ‘two states,’ -with Israel being sovereign insecure- and Israel/PA Fatah in west bank being ‘one state’ - with Israel being sovereign secure.?

But, it should be noted PA/Fatah is not well received in Gaza Don’t Give Gaza to the Palestinian Authority - WSJ,? and ‘The PA has been steadily losing ground… Today, a staggering 87 percent of Palestinians in the West Bank and Gaza believe that the PA is corrupt, 78 percent want Abbas to resign, and 62 percent believe that the PA is a liability. This loss of popular legitimacy has had real-life implications.’ How the Palestinian Authority Failed Its People - The Atlantic?

Can we further extrapolate on the non-liked one state solution.

One State Solution (does it already exist?)

The two state chatter has not contained, reduced or eliminated the violence between Israelis and Palestinians. Maybe a two state solution would be viable and doable if led by competent moderates on both sides, but, today, that may be wishful thinking, as extremists on both sides have preempted, if not, hijacked, the narrative.?

Below are four (of many) references for a one state solution:

1. ‘A one-state arrangement is not a future possibility; it already exists, no matter what anyone thinks. Between the Mediterranean Sea and the Jordan River, one state controls the entry and exit of people and goods, oversees security, and has the capacity to impose its decisions, laws, and policies on millions of people without their consent.

A one-state reality could, in principle, be based on democratic rule and equal citizenship. But such an arrangement is not on offer at the moment. Forced to choose between Israel’s Jewish identity and liberal democracy, Israel has chosen the former. It has locked in a system of Jewish supremacy, wherein non-Jews are structurally discriminated against or excluded in a tiered scheme: some non-Jews have most of, but not all, the rights that Jews have, while most non-Jews live under severe segregation, separation, and domination. Israel’s controversial new “Jewish nation-state” law, explained - Vox?

‘Netanyahu’s new government, composed of a coalition of right-wing religious and nationalist extremists, epitomizes these trends. Its members boast of their mission to create a new Israel in their image: less liberal, more religious, and more willing to own discrimination against non-Jews. Netanyahu has written that “Israel is not a state of all its citizens” but rather “of the Jewish people—and only it." The man he appointed as minister of national security, Itamar Ben-Gvir, has declared that Gaza should be “ours” and that “the Palestinians can go to . . . Saudi Arabia or other places, like Iraq or Iran.” This extremist vision has long been shared by at least a minority of Israelis and has strong grounding in Zionist thought and practice.’ Israel’s One-State Reality | Foreign Affairs?

2. The “one-state solution” … comes in two versions. One, favored by some leftists and Palestinians, would create a single democratic country. Arab Muslims would outnumber Jews, thus ending Israel as a Jewish state. The other version, favored by many on the Israeli right, would involve Israel annexing the West Bank and either forcing out Palestinians or denying them the right to vote. Virtually the entire world, including most Israelis, rejects this option as an unacceptable human rights violation.

'But belief in the possibility of a two-state solution has dropped significantly, which seems to have led to a decline in public support. In one survey, published in January 2023, only 34 percent of Israeli Jews and 33 percent of Palestinians supported a two-state solution — which the authors note was “linked to low perceived feasibility.

‘The inability of Israelis and Palestinians to come to terms on two states has led to a recent surge in interest in a one-state solution, partly out of a sense of hopelessness and partly out of fear that if the sides cannot negotiate a two-state solution, a de facto one-state outcome will be inevitable. But each version of the one-state solution is unacceptable to one side or the other, and it is difficult to see how one could be implemented in the foreseeable future without significant violence.' What are the “two-state solution” and the “one-state solution”??

3. ‘The question for Jewish Israelis—who hold most of the power in this situation and therefore must take the lead on any lasting resolution—is whether they can muster this kind of sensible farsightedness. The biggest difference between the South Africa’s late apartheid regime and that of Israel is that there has not been any serious attempt to reach lasting peace from the latter party for decades now, since the pro-peace Israeli Prime Minister Yitzakh Rabin was assassinated by an ultra-Zionist terrorist. As Jerome Karabel writes here at the Prospect, there is a man currently in Israeli prison, Marwan Barghouti, who bears an eerie similarity to Mandela. Like Mandela, he once advocated violent resistance but turned against it in prison; like Mandela he is by far the most popular potential leader among Palestinians. If Israel wanted a credible negotiating partner, there he sits. But he remains locked up…Instead the Netanyahu government has consistently prioritized the maintenance of apartheid and occupation, to the point of propping up Hamas to prevent the formation of a united Palestinian front, and undermining the idea of nonviolent resistance by regularly gunning down unarmed protesters.

‘a one-state solution—perhaps as a Belgium-style federation with Zionist and Palestinian sub-units—really is the most realistic possibility to reach lasting peace. Maybe a two-state solution could be made to work somehow. But not without summoning the wisdom and decency that a one-state solution would also require. Just shoving off a Palestinian state consisting of the smoking Gaza crater and shreds of the West Bank will not solve the suffering that is at the root of Hamas’s murderous attacks.’ A One-State Solution Could Work in Israel - The American Prospect?

4. ‘The discourse on the Israel-Palestine conflict stands at a critical juncture, in which the traditional paradigms have proven inadequate in resolving long-standing grievances, in meeting Palestinian aspirations, and in offering security to Israelis and Palestinians. While laden with challenges, the proposition of a one-state solution offers a paradigm shift toward a future predicated not on division but on equity and mutual respect.’ Shifting the Paradigm: The One-State Solution as a Path to Peace?

Some of challenges with One State Approach:

Assumption: ‘A one-state solution means there would be a single country made up of pre-1967 Israel, the Gaza Strip, and the West Bank. As a placeholder name, let’s call this one, sovereign state “the Holy Land.” Every person who lives between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea would have equal individual rights, regardless of their ethnic or religious identity. They could live anywhere they want in the Holy Land, and they would have the right to vote in national elections. The capital would be in Jerusalem, and the government would include Jews and Palestinians… one state could be solely based on equal individual rights, or it could be a binational state, Binationalism | Encyclopedia.com,? meaning the two communities (Jews, Palestinians) have some communal rights as well.’

But, why would Isarelis forfeit benefits? ‘Israel as the Jewish State is not compatible with the Holy Land because the latter assumes symbols, laws, and government policies do not favor Jews over Palestinians. Yet Israel today privileges Jews in many ways, e.g. in migration, housing, employment, political rights, and treatment by security organs of the state. Why would Israeli Jews willingly forfeit those advantages?’

Would the Refuge for world Jewry be compromised? ‘...could the Holy Land serve as the fulfillment of Zionism and as a refuge for world Jewry if it was no longer defined as the Jewish State? What, for example, would happen to the Law of Return, which gives a Jew from anywhere in the world the right to become a citizen of Israel? …the law is also tied to the idea of Israel as a safe haven for Jews, somewhere they may automatically seek protection if things go badly in their home country (think violent anti-Semitism).’

But, what about Palestinian Right to Return? ‘‘A parallel problem would arise with the Palestinian right of return. Palestinians, with backing from international law and UN resolutions, claim a right to return to their homes and land from pre-1948, the years before the establishment of the State of Israel. Over 5 million Palestinians are registered as refugees with UNRWA. While past surveys suggest many of the refugees might not want to return permanently, but might be content with visiting and receiving compensation, if even 10 or 20% moved to the Holy Land, it would have a notable effect on the Palestinian share of the population. A majority of Jews would oppose the influx. But many Palestinians would object to any resolution that does not acknowledge and address the right of return.’

Top Line issue, Sharing Security & Intelligence? ‘...difficult to imagine how the shift would take place in the state’s armed forces and security and intelligence community. Would Palestinians be integrated into the Israeli military and police to bring the numbers closer to 50/50 and to put Palestinians in key leadership roles? Would Palestinians leaders be given access to Israel’s nuclear secrets? That seems hard to imagine and yet that is what equality mandates. At the same time, most Israeli Jews would be reluctant to concede exclusive control of the state’s security decisions, fearful that they would not be protected in crisis moments.’

Possibility for Equal socioeconomic opportunities? ‘...equality in socioeconomic terms? In the status quo, Israeli Jews have many times the income and wealth of Palestinians. Would equality involve significant economic redistribution, something that itself could lead to further Israeli Jewish opposition to one state with equality? For comparison, the unification of East and West Germany faced such economic challenges with gaps that were not as stark.’

Billion dollar question, Status of Settlers & Settlements in the West Bank? ‘Israeli settlements are towns and outposts built in the West Bank since Israel occupied the land in the 1967 War….the government, the judiciary, and the military have aided and abetted the illegal expropriation of Palestinian land for establishing or expanding settlements.…most countries consider settlements illegal under international law. With an agreed-upon Israeli-Palestinian resolution and the end of the Israeli occupation, that would no longer be an issue… But as the law and courts changed in this new one state, the Holy Land, presumably that favoritism toward Israeli Jewish claims would fade...Israel would not need to withdraw settlers or close down any settlements since everyone would already be living in the same state, the Holy Land.

Nobody said it was going to be easy, but potentially doable based upon ‘...tens of thousands of Palestinian and Jewish citizens of Israel stood side-by-side at protests denouncing war and violence and calling for working together. There are organizations that illustrate successful Arab-Jewish partnerships and the values that could help one state function amicably such as the Hand-in-Hand schools, the Oasis of Peace, the Palestine-Israel Journal, the Parents’ Circle, and Combatants for Peace.’

Thus, ‘One state…would have all the attributes of a sovereign state. There would be no debate about its borders. The state and its borders would receive wide international recognition.’ Assessing One-State and Two-State Proposals to Solve the Israel-Palestine Conflict?

One State: Iran & Saudi

If, big if, there is a one state solution, where ‘Every person who lives between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea would have equal individual rights, regardless of their ethnic or religious identity,’ would Iran and its proxies Hamas (Gaza), Hezbollah (Lebanon), Houthi (Yemen), Iran Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in Syria, Iraq, and even Islamic state,? IS Under Pressure After Hamas Attack On Israel | Barron's, attack the one state sovereign, knowing civilian Palestinians would be killed, and the ensuing blowback from the Arab/Muslim world and the west??

Saudi Arabia still wants to normalize relations with Israel, Saudi normalization still possible post-war, but price for Israel is higher — officials, but on a number of conditions, including commitment to a Palestinian state, would a one state satisfy Saudi for normalization.?

Peace in the region is a 'must have' for Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince Mohd Bin Salman's bold economic reforms. ‘Hamas's unprecedented attacks on Israel on October 7 and Israel's withering military response have scuppered Saudi Arabia's hopes for sustained peace in the region, which officials see as crucial for Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman's sweeping Vision 2030 agenda for economic and social reform.

'The Red Sea coast is a linchpin of the vision, with developers eyeing a slew of resorts that could help transform the once closed-off kingdom into a tourism hot spot.

'That makes ending military operations in Yemen a central foreign policy goal for Riyadh, one officials hoped would be more feasible in the wake of a surprise China-brokered rapprochement deal between Saudi Arabia and Iran announced in March.' Saudi In 'Tight Spot' As US, UK Take On Huthi Rebels | Barron's

Top White House official, ‘‘McGurk has been pitching national security officials on a plan suggesting an approximately 90-day timeline for what should happen once active fighting in Gaza ends, three U.S. officials said. It argues that stability can be achieved in the devastated Palestinian region if American, Israeli, Palestinian and Saudi officials launch an urgent diplomatic effort that prioritizes the establishment of Israel-Saudi ties, ....McGurk’s? plan would use the incentive of aid for reconstruction from Saudi Arabia and possibly other wealthy Gulf countries like Qatar and the United Arab Emirates to pressure both the Palestinians and the Israelis, per the officials. In this vision, Palestinian leaders would agree to a new government for both Gaza and the occupied West Bank and to ratchet down their criticisms of Israel, while Israel would accept limited influence in Gaza. A Top Biden Official Is Pushing An Urgent Post-Gaza Plan That's Alarming Some Insiders?

Conclusion

A one state solution ‘would make Israeli Jews an ethnic minority in the only Jewish country. The high total fertility rate among Palestinians accompanied by a return of Palestinian refugees, would quickly render Jews a minority…Jews, like any other nation, have the right to self-determination, and that due to still existing antisemitism, there is a need for a Jewish national home…Israeli historian and politician Shlomo Ben-Ami, who served as Foreign Minister of Israel, dismissed the one-state solution as "ivory tower nonsense" and said that it creates a "South Africa situation without a South Africa solution." One-state solution - Wikipedia?

But, one state solution could allow ‘Israel to maintain a long-term military presence in Gaza….’ its top line concern. In 100 days, the Israel-Hamas war has transformed the region. The fighting shows no signs of ending?

There appears to be no perfect answer to the world's most intractable conflict. But, maybe, don't let the perfect be the enemy of the good, and give the one state solution more airtime discussions.