Don’t get angry, get data

Don’t get angry, get data

To be clear, there is nothing very funny about getting the energy dilemma wrong, it’s a serious topic, and we don’t want to be accused of being frivolous with such a heavyweight item.

You have to admit though that there is something mildly bemusing at least, if not fully amusing, about the way we as humans are interacting on the topic. ?Hippos on ice - is the picture that comes to mind. Now there’s an entertainment programme that would break new territory.?All the agility and all the momentum of hippo dodgems in motion looking to create a delicate ice-skating ballet. ?

We are pretty good at focusing on differences rather than agreements and becoming animated about it.?It’s important to recognise the differences and debate them.?However at the end of the day it is data from real projects which will dictate how things go, and what things work, so it’s always the place to focus ultimately.?Finding it, collating it, comparing it. ?

Theory is important ahead of time, and we shouldn’t really be stupid enough to do anything that is in obvious contravention of well-worn and well-accepted theory, but theory is never sufficient on its own. The complexity of variables in any real-world situation provides a whole bucket load of spanners being thrown into any works.?Not that theory is necessarily always black and white, but very dark shades of grey, and very pale hues of off-white are typically the norm.?If testing the boundaries of well-worn theories, well OK, never say never, but small scale first. ?

Of course with new things, sometimes that defining data is inevitably a while coming in.?That’s part of the problem with today.?So many new things are being tried, the data on how they really perform just isn’t there yet.?Not to a significant number of data points anyway, over truly representative periods of time.??So that will take time.?The time element is important in dynamic physical, chemical, and commercial systems that take time to “equilibrate”.?First results are not always representative. Especially if the optimal conditions are tried first, and their frequency of opportunity will radically diminish with time.

We can trust data provision will happen eventually though - a pool of data points sufficient to guide more effective decisions.?Stakeholders will insist on such auditing.?Where it is not there yet, we do well to note that fact and apply appropriate caution.?That’s not to write things off, it’s just to note that theory and practice are two different things.?

If something fails at the starter’s gun on the theory though, that’s a different matter.??Practice will not magically make well accepted theory disappear. To give something a go in the hope that it might - that is a very big hippo skating on very thin ice.

At the point that appropriately long-lived data does come to light, all prior discussions will be trumped by the numbers in front of us, and almost?everyone will no doubt be united in a hearty and robust chorus of “we knew it all along”. ?In the meantime, predictably, a lot of speculation rules a lot of roosts.?From no shortage of vested interests.?That’s not going to go away, so not crying on the pillow about that. ?It has never really been otherwise.?There is money to be made in the short term on speculation as long as there are people willing to invest on unresearched hearsay. ??There are.

Some time and money will be wasted along the way, and that’s kind of inevitable.?Governments would do well to let private industry do that first ahead of letting it happen with taxpayers’ money, but to be fair, they are in a dilemma.??So many voices, so many demands, so many spotlights, so many accusations flying if they do nothing.?Rock and hard place - between.?It almost is better to do something and make some mistakes and get it wrong than to do nothing – but there are limits to that – and where there is uncertainty, start small first.?

Avoidance of the downright daft, and where long-established vested interests are involved, applying a healthy pinch of salt to lobbied exhortations - ?should be a minimum expectation of taxpayer investment. ?Resourcing expertise-access to discern that, within central and local government is a pre-requisite.?The good news is that while we drastically overestimate our ability to get things right first time, we can sometimes also underestimate our ability to do total U-turns when the need arises.?

At an individual energy-professional level though, at a time of great change, delving into the data is the task ahead and the best we can do.?In diversity of talent, and diversity of approach, there will be both false trails with disappointments, and unexpected, pleasant surprises, accompanied by a whole lot of excel spreadsheets.?

We will likely disagree about much at times of metamorphosis, but we can trust that a whole lot more will become clear as various cocoons emerge.?To that end, we need not fret too much about disagreement in the here and now.?The butterflies as they emerge will be clear enough for all.?As will the duds.

Will hippos ever be adept at ice ballet??Modern thinking on this matter is likely not.?But then that is probably part of the transformation that needs to take place.??The traditional behemoths – at least in their current form – may not be suitable for the new dance.?That is not to deny the historical importance of the waterhole where we have all wallowed, but it is to consider that the rains have changed pattern, and that creatures which can adeptly wander far and wide in search of new will have the better chance of survival.?