Don't be fooled by reports of lowering crime data: It’s NOT what it looks like...

Crime data in the U.S. is often used to shape public perception, but the reality is far more complex. Recent reports of declining crime rates may be misleading due to significant gaps and misreporting.

Part 1:

The reality of underreporting:

In 2023, the National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS) revealed that only 44% of violent crimes and 29% of property crimes were reported to the police. This underreporting skews official statistics, giving a distorted view of the actual crime landscape.

The impact of data gaps:

The transition to the FBI's National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS) has resulted in many police departments failing to submit data. By 2021, participation dropped drastically, with only 63% of agencies submitting data, leaving major cities like New York, Los Angeles, and Chicago unrepresented.

To compensate, the FBI has relied on estimations, which are prone to error. Comparing Baltimore's 2015 homicide surge to similar cities showed how local factors can make such estimations inaccurate.

Misleading FBI reports:

In 2023, the FBI reported a 13.2% decline in murder and a 5.7% drop in violent crime compared to 2022. News outlets unquestioningly repeated these figures, despite the fact that many cities were missing from the data.

In reality, violent crime is still significantly higher than in 2019, with major cities reporting increased levels of homicides and aggravated assaults.

Inconsistent data reporting:

A comparison of 40 major cities' data with the FBI’s figures showed discrepancies. For example, the FBI reported a larger drop in violent crime than local agencies did, creating a false impression of improvement.

Even when cities do report their data, the FBI’s figures often don’t match local crime statistics. Baltimore, for example, reported 262 homicides in 2023, while the FBI counted only 225.

The consequences of misreporting:

The inaccurate data provided by the FBI misleads the public and policymakers, leading to a misinformed understanding of crime trends.

Claims of crime “plummeting” can’t be trusted when large portions of the country’s crime data are incomplete or misrepresented. The truth is that crime levels, especially violent crime, remain elevated compared to pre-pandemic levels.

Conclusion:

While crime data may show a drop in recent years, this decline is not as significant as it appears. With continued gaps in reporting and underreporting, the full picture of crime in the U.S. is likely much grimmer than official figures suggest.

Part 2:

The challenges of misreporting crime data in the U.S.

For over 100 years, the FBI has collected crime data via the Uniform Crime Reporting Program, considered the gold standard for national crime statistics. By 2020, nearly every U.S. law enforcement agency was included. But a major shift occurred in 2021 when the FBI switched to the National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS), leaving many agencies unable to adapt in time.

Key challenges in crime data reporting:

1. System overhaul in 2021: The FBI stopped accepting data from the older Summary Reporting System, requiring all agencies to switch to NIBRS. Many agencies fell behind, leading to significant data gaps. In 2022, about one-third of the nation’s police agencies, representing a quarter of the U.S. population, were missing from the FBI's national crime data.
2. Patchy participation: While participation slightly improved in 2022, with 2,000 more agencies submitting records, many major departments like the NYPD and LAPD are still absent from federal data. Florida and Pennsylvania reported the lowest participation rates, with less than 10% of their agencies submitting data.
3. Confusion and uncertainty: The incomplete data has caused confusion over national crime trends. The FBI could not definitively say whether crime had increased or decreased in 2021. Hate crime statistics also suffered, with early reports missing data from nearly 40% of agencies, prompting backlash from experts and policymakers.
4. Political misuse: Politicians have been quick to use flawed or incomplete crime data to support their claims. For example, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis cited a 50-year low in crime in 2021, but this was based on incomplete state data. Similarly, Wichita Mayor Brandon Whipple used inaccurate data to claim a reduction in violent crime, which missed half of the recorded violent crimes.

Conclusion:

As the FBI continues to push for broader compliance with NIBRS, experts warn that national crime data will likely remain incomplete for years, allowing further politicization and misuse of crime statistics.