Don’t Fall For This Crypto Clickbait
Ben Simpson
Navigating the world of crypto with confidence & expertise | Founder & CEO of Collective Shift | Helped 1000+ investors maximise their returns & create a winning portfolio strategy
Hey LinkedIn,
After 10 years of waiting, billions of dollars worth of BTC are officially being sent to past users of Mt. Gox. While this sounds bad for prices, here's why you shouldn't panic. ??
Mt. Gox holds some 140K BTC (~$9B) that needs to go back to past users (i.e. creditors).
This week, some of this stash started to move, with 48,641 BTC (~$3.2B) being sent to Kraken, which aims to repay certain Mt. Gox creditors within the next 14 days.
We knew the repayments would start as of early July. So it's no shock to see some BTC already moving. Expect more of the same over the weeks ahead.
Are we in for more sell-side pressure?
It’s the billion-dollar question on everyone's lips.
In last month's newsletter, we covered why the Mt. Gox redistributions aren’t as bearish as many believe.
In short, not all the BTC will be sold and we expect individual creditors to be more diamond-handed than the market expects.
Here's the big difference between these redistributions and Germany's recent selling of nearly 50,000 BTC: Mt. Gox creditors are not forced sellers.
This is no time to panic, in our opinion.
Any further dips could be opportunities rather than catastrophes
In ARK Invest's latest Bitcoin Monthly Report, they called Bitcoin “oversold” during the latest sell-off, and it dropped below its 200-day moving average.
Running out of Bitcoin headwinds
Markets hate uncertainty. Pleasingly, the outlook for Bitcoin has become much less uncertain over recent months:
? U.S. government has sold some BTC.
? Germany sold its entire balance of nearly 50,000 BTC.
? Increased chances of pro-crypto policymakers in November's U.S. election.
? SEC dropped investigations into ETH, Paxos and Hiro Labs (Stacks).
? Rate cuts expected to start soon.
? Now, the final boss, the Mt. Gox distributions.
Bitcoin trying to rally in an environment with such heavy sell pressure is like trying to run on the beach.
No matter how fast you’re trying to run, you’re getting dragged down!
But it’s no time to panic; as the headwinds dwindle, the tailwinds are lifting.
When world leaders are speaking at Bitcoin conventions and global investment banks are embracing Bitcoin, it'd be a shame to throw it all away on short-term Mt. Gox fear.
What happened? In a CNBC interview, CEO Larry Fink continued his Bitcoin backflip, touting it as a “legitimate financial instrument”, equating it to “digital gold”, and explaining its importance as a hedge against “currency debasement and global economic uncertainty.”?
Why does it matter to you? The importance of BlackRock and Fink's crypto pivot cannot be understated, ushering in a new era of growing global acceptance. We know the TradFi backflip will be complete if reports are accurate that JPMorgan's Jamie Dimon is no longer anti-crypto.
What happened? All eight spot Ethereum ETF issuers in the U.S. filed what is widely expected to be their final amended registration statements.
Why does it matter to you? Unless an unexpected issue arises, the ETFs should go live next week. Many are calling for Tuesday (July 23) to be the big day.
What happened? BTC rallied in the hours after an attempted assassination on the U.S. presidential candidate. This coincided with prediction markets increasing his odds of winning the election from 60% to 71%.
Why does it matter to you? The outcome of the U.S. election will have major implications for crypto markets. Prices rallied on Trump's improved odds partially because a Republican win in November would almost certainly result in Gary Gensler—one of the most anti-crypto figures in Washington D.C.—being removed as SEC chair.
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