?? Don't Believe the Scare: AZ Real Estate Market Is Strong! ???? Arizona real estate market 2023

?? Don't Believe the Scare: AZ Real Estate Market Is Strong! ???? Arizona real estate market 2023

Hey there! It's great to talk to you today. My name is Geoff and I'm here to chat with you about the real estate market in Arizona. It's been a really cool spring so far with tons of snow and wet weather, but I think we'll start seeing some warmer temperatures soon.

Now, let's take a look at the real estate market in the greater Phoenix and central Arizona areas. As I mentioned last month, we're back in a seller's market, tracking at about the 2,015 to 2016 pace, certainly not like 2021 and 2022. I know a lot of people have been asking why prices aren't coming down, and we'll take a closer look at that today.

Despite some terrifying headlines that suggest prices are going to crash, I believe that we hit the market bottom last October/November, and prices have been increasing ever since then. Even though we've had a pullback, owners with two years of ownership still closed with significant profits.?

However, for the next three to five months, at least, year-over-year appreciation rates will be negative because of the huge peak we had towards the end of last year, and then the subsequent pullback. But, I want to reassure you that the leading metrics in greater Phoenix do not support continued downward pressure on prices. In fact, they're starting to come back up.

Let's start by looking at some of the headlines that are making people panic. I cut out some of the craziest ones because they're just meant to shock and scare people. It's important to understand the numbers behind these headlines, which quite frankly, just don't make a lot of sense. Many of them are manufactured to capture eyeballs, so please don't believe everything you read.

Let's take a look at some charts that I think debunk most of these scary headlines. But first, have you seen these cat pictures and pictures of the two women? They just crack me up! If anyone knows where they're from, please let me know.

Okay, back to business. The top right chart shows YouTubers talking about a crash in real estate prices, while the bottom left shows a calm-looking cat that represents Phoenix real estate prices. We hit the top back in May of last year, and since then, we've had a pullback of about 11% to the lows in late December. But, in my mind, an 11% pullback on a price doubling over the last three or four years is not a bad deal at all.

It's important to remember that for the next three to five months, year-over-year appreciation rates will be negative. So, if you bought a house during this time period, you've likely experienced a pullback. But, the question you should be asking yourself is whether your house price is still effective for you compared to when you bought it.

Towards the end of last year, we started to see an increase in prices, and even though this chart doesn't show it, we've had a normal run-up in prices that you would expect in the springtime, even though interest rates have been going up. So, despite what some headlines suggest, I don't believe the Phoenix housing market will crash to 2008 levels.

While it's true that we're in a seller's market and year-over-year appreciation rates will be negative for the next few months, the leading metrics in greater Phoenix do not support continued downward pressure on prices.?

So, if you're thinking of buying or selling a home, don't let the scary headlines scare you. The real estate market in Arizona is still strong, and I believe it will continue to be so in the coming months.

Contact me if you want additional information.

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