Donald Trump's historic and dramatic day in court; And Finland finally joins NATO

Market Watch

• Indian benchmark indices ended the day in the green, with the Sensex up 582 points at 59,689, and Nifty up 159 points at 17,557.
• Sectorally, Nifty PSU Bank (-0.79%) and Auto (-0.55%) shed the most, while FMCG (1.36%) and IT (1.20%) gained the most.

What do the 34 felony counts against former US President Donald Trump reveal?

Former US President Donald Trump - charged with 34 counts of falsifying business records in a Manhattan criminal court - has pleaded not guilty calling the development “an insult to our country.”

• The 34 counts only pertain to 34 invoices (all relating to the same crime) which were allegedly falsified by the former president and have no bearing on the actual or perceived gravity of the “crime” Trump has been accused of.

What does the law say? Falsifying business records are usually just considered a misdemeanour in the US justice system; hence, Trump’s supporters argue that calling them felonies is a stretch, and proves the political motivations of the prosecutors.

• However, NY laws add that if the person falsified business records “with the intent to hide another crime,” then it becomes a felony. Hence it is up to the prosecution to prove that a felony crime has been committed.
• Trump is now the first former American president ever to be criminally charged.

Tell me about the charges: The charges are related to “hush-money” payments made by lawyer Michael Cohen to adult film star Stormy Daniels just before the 2016 election.

• Cohen was convicted of spending money to help a presidential campaign but not disclosing it - which violates federal campaign finance law.
• The allegations are that Trump - while serving as President - made and concealed payments to Cohen as a “reimbursement” for having paid off Daniels, thereby hiding “damaging information from the voting public during the 2016 presidential election.”

Trump has denied all the charges, saying “I never thought anything like this could happen in America. The only crime that I've committed has been to fearlessly defend our nation against those who seek to detroy it. This fake case was brought only to interfere with the upcoming 2024 election and it should be dropped immediately.”

What they’re saying: Utah Senator Mitt Romney, who voted to impeach Trump during both his impeachment trials said the NY DA “stretched to reach felony criminal charges in order to fit a political agenda. The prosecutor's overreach sets a dangerous precedent for criminalising political opponents and damages the public's faith in our justice system.”

• Democrats though are choosing to remain quiet as they feel the case may now do more to rally the Republican base than damage Trump’s political standing.

What happens next? Trump’s lawyers will now try to get a motion to dismiss the case altogether. However, if they don’t manage to do that, the case will go to trial.

Can Trump still run for President? Yes. US laws only have 3 requirements for a candidate to run for President - a natural-born citizen, at least 35 years old and a resident of the US for at least 14 years.

• In fact, there have been two examples of people having run for president of the US from prison - Eugene V Debs in 1920, and Lyndon LaRouche in 1992.

Some noteworthy observations: The charges, however, have deeper ramifications for US politics. Some Democrats believe that by formally bringing criminal charges against Trump, “swing voters” who make up a considerable chunk of the vote base, will now distance themselves from Trump.

• Trump has been asked to reappear in the New York court just a week before the first Republican Primary - and Fox News’s Tucker Carlson points out that the timing seems designed to affect the Republican Primary.
• Other observers, like El Salvadorian President Nayib Bukele, made a pertinent observation, saying “Just imagine if this happened in any other country, where a government arrested the main opposition candidate. The United States’ ability to use democracy as foreign policy is gone.”

Let’s not forget, just a few weeks ago, the US State Department said they were “watching” Indian opposition Congress leader Rahul Gandhi’s case in the Indian courts and were engaged with the Indian government on “freedom of expression.”

Finland joins NATO as Russia fumes

Finland has become a full-fledged member of NATO after its foreign minister handed over the official documents of accession to the alliance’s secretary general Jens Stoltenberg.

Why this matters: With this, the line of direct contact between NATO and the Russian Federation’s border has now more than doubled.

• The ceremony marking Finland’s accession occurred at the alliance’s headquarters in Brussels on the 74th anniversary of the establishment of NATO.?
• NATO has said it has no immediate intention to increase its presence in Finland, though some members sent troops there for war games last year.

A point to note here is that NATO’s aggressive eastward expansion was one of the primary reasons for the deterioration of Moscow’s ties with the West. Finland’s joining does little to build confidence in the region.

What they’re saying: "What we see is that President Putin went to war against Ukraine with a declared aim to get less NATO. He’s getting the exact opposite," Stoltenberg had said.?

• Russia’s foreign ministry said their response would depend “on the specific terms on which Finland joins NATO, including the deployment of NATO’s military infrastructure and offensive weapons on its territory.”
• They added that “the Russian Federation will have to respond with military-technical, as well as other measures in order to address national security threats arising from Finland joining NATO.”

Is Finland losing out by joining NATO? Prior to joining NATO, Finland enjoyed a “special status” by acting as a neutral bridge between Russia and the West.

• Observers in Moscow argue that by signing up as “a minor” member in another US-led bloc, Finland “has given up on its unique identity and lost its independence.”
• They also point out that the development would endanger all of Northern Europe, which “used to be one of the most stable regions in the world.”

ICYMI

• Rajiv Jain, Chief Investment Officer of GQG Partners, has invested nearly $2 billion in India’s Adani Group—and predicts that he could get returns over 100% within five years.
• JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon warned the banking crisis is not over yet and it will cause “repercussions for years to come”.
• Elon Musk’s electric vehicle company Tesla is now selling its own brand of beers called GigaBier, inspired by the automaker’s yet-to-be-released electric pickup truck.
• Mukesh Ambani has been named the richest person in Asia and the ninth richest in the world with a net worth of $83.4 billion in Forbes’ Billionaires 2023 list.
• Healthcare giant Johnson & Johnson has agreed to pay $8.9 billion to settle claims that talc in its popular baby powder caused cancer.
• Hours after receiving a threatening letter, Kannada superstar Kichcha Sudeep has confirmed that he will campaign for the BJP, but won't join the party or contest in the upcoming Karnataka elections.