Donald Trump’s assault on Europe
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Hello from London,
Clarity is valuable. Europeans once entertained the fuzzy hope that, as president, Donald Trump would strengthen Ukraine before seeking a ceasefire. They had dared to imagine that Mr Trump, despite his promises to end the war, would stand by the government in Kyiv. After all, America paid a heavy reputational price in August 2021 for its humiliating cut-and-run from Afghanistan. It had been America, with Britain, that pressed Europeans to take seriously the Russian threat in Ukraine, early in 2022. To reverse course in 2025, and reward Vladimir Putin for invading his neighbour, would surely be too damaging to American prestige.
As the events of the past few days show, that fuzzy thinking is gone. At least Europeans now face a clear—though bleak—situation. Mr Trump’s 90-minute call with Mr Putin was made without consulting Ukraine's president or his European NATO allies. It is very unclear how much participation either Ukraine or Europe will have in a Trump-led deal to end the war. America's administration has strongly indicated that Ukraine will not join NATO and indicated willingness to let Russia keep Ukrainian territory it has seized. Mr Trump apparently favours the complete rehabilitation of Mr Putin; he has suggested that Russia could be invited to turn the G7 group of countries back into the G8, though the other half-dozen members would object. You don't need an AI-powered crystal ball to see that Russia expects to emerge smiling from the coming negotiations. Mr Putin expects that he will not only hold on to stolen territory, but that he will find ways to make the rest of Ukraine into a pliant, pro-Russian state. Less likely, but even more appalling, is the possibility that Mr Trump will allow Russia to dominate much of eastern Europe.
What should Europe do? I'd advise, for a start, that Europeans ignore the parallel trolling by Elon Musk and J.D. Vance over domestic politics, for example in Germany. It's not clear that any voters will be swayed by such outsiders to back the hard-right AfD, for example. (If the AfD does well in Germany's election next Sunday, look for domestic reasons, not American ones.) Mr Vance's claim that Europeans are intolerant of free speech certainly spread dismay in Munich last week. But remember that Mr Vance was mostly speaking to an audience of one back home, displaying his loyalty to Mr Trump.
Most important, Europe must move fast in organising a much stronger defence for itself. American protection is fast falling away. Europeans should now be prepared for the possibility that America will, perhaps soon, withdraw its own troops and guarantees from the old continent. If the world is becoming one in which might makes right, and if America has lost its will to subsidise its fellow democracies' defences, then a rich, ageing and underpowered Europe is woefully exposed. Without urgent efforts, Europe risks having little might with which to defend its rights.
Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine's president, talks of creating a pan-European army. Old discussions about how much more military kit to buy from America, and how much more to produce in Europe, will be resumed. (The only reasonable answer: do both.) Britain, rightly, is signalling it will co-operate closely with others in Europe, despite Brexit. European leaders are reportedly to gather for an emergency summit in Paris on Monday to discuss how to bolster security. At a bare minimum they must find ways to increase the share of public spending on defence to well above the current NATO target of 2% of GDP. I'd argue for a new target twice as high, along with credible explanations of how other public spending will fall to accommodate this. That, however, is just a start.
As an old period of security is coming to an end, huge questions are opening up. Are we now in an era of might makes right? How might smaller, more open countries cope in such a world? I'd like to hear your views. Write to me at [email protected].
Adam Roberts, Digital editor?
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4 天前A fragmenta??o do Ocidente realmente tem sido um grande desafio para a estabilidade global, especialmente com a ascens?o de figuras que favorecem agendas nacionalistas e isolacionistas, como Trump e Musk. A unidade europeia é fundamental para enfrentar amea?as como a de Putin, mas também é essencial que a Europa desenvolva uma estratégia robusta para fortalecer sua defesa interna e sua independência em rela??o a potências externas. Uma reflex?o profunda sobre o papel das democracias ocidentais no cenário geopolítico atual é necessária, pois n?o podemos permitir que a fragmenta??o interna enfraque?a ainda mais nossa capacidade de resistir às amea?as externas.
Entrepreneur; Engineer, Strategist; "Dolphin" Investor; Author
4 天前Trump has already demonstrated that he works for tweets, is erratic, inconsistent, and worst of all, a liar. His talks with Putin, another liar but a dangerous one, will obviously be another fiasco, just like his talks with Kim. The good thing is that Europe has to be the adult in the room and take full responsibility for its sovereignty. The bad thing is that America will never be great again, and China is leveraging all this irrational and erratic behavior, winning on all fronts. Europe must be ready for China!
Advisor to Global 500 CEOs & Billionairs | CEO @ SI INSTITUTE
5 天前SI INSTITUTE