Dominican Republic: President Abinader favored to win on Sun. in first round
Metodi Tzanov
Helping finance professionals understand what is going on in Emerging and Frontier Markets
The May 19 general election is headlined by a presidential race in which President Luis Abinader stands a strong chance of winning outright, even perhaps security double the support of the two main opposition candidates. Abinader is thus feeling confident of victory, especially after dealing with the crisis in Haiti and a late in the day teachers' strike. The opposition is also partly divided, between Leonel Fernández of the People's Force (FP) party, a three-time former president, and Abel Martínez, the candidate of the Dominican Liberation Party (PLD).
In the campaign, the candidates focused on addressing the most pressing concerns identified by recent opinion polls. These include economic recovery and lowering the high cost of living, generating quality jobs, tackling high insecurity, and managing the impact of Haiti's social and political crisis on the Dominican Republic. The electoral campaign has unfolded amid a highly tense atmosphere, marked by allegations of state resources being used for campaigning, delayed disbursement of public funding to parties, and accusations of Electoral Law violations by the ruling party. Tensions escalated of late, but ultimately, the ruling Modern Revolutionary Party (PRM)?has been able to maintain a strong position. This can largely be attributed to the government implementing measures that gained public support, such as subsidies, a firm stance against Haitian migration, and stabilizing the macroeconomy.
WHAT'S AT STAKE
In the May 19 general election, Dominicans will vote for the president, but they will also elect members of the National Congress, including 190 deputies and 32 senators. Voting will take place from 7:00 AM to 5:00 PM, with the first results announced starting at 8:00 PM. Over 8.1mn Dominicans are eligible to vote, and there are a total of 9 presidential candidates competing.
In the event that none of the presidential candidates secures more than 50% plus one vote of valid ballots during the first round of voting, a runoff will be conducted on Jun 30. This runoff will involve only the two candidates who receive the highest number of votes in the initial round. The two main opposition candidates have pledged to back each other, but even then the incumbent is the favorite and acrimony between these candidates might even lead to problems of support.
THE CANDIDATES
Luis Abinader - Modern Revolutionary Party (PRM)
Abinader's presidential campaign focuses on a National Development Strategy aimed at restructuring the productive sector through innovation, technology, and job creation. He also aims to reform the government to achieve "zero bureaucracy," enhance transparency in the public sector, and improve the quality of services. In terms of public policies, Abinader proposes to improve education quality, electricity supply, security, and healthcare. His campaign has emphasized addressing these issues sustainably within the public budget and environmental considerations.
Leonel Fernández - People's Force (FP)
Leonel Fernández's strategy aims to strengthen the provision of public policies such as poverty reduction, food security, access to clean water, construction of decent housing, and citizen security. The party acknowledges the country's economic growth acceleration over the past quarter-century but highlights significant deficiencies that require appropriate public policies.
领英推荐
Abel Martínez - Dominican Liberation Party (PLD)
Abel Martínez's campaign emphasizes improving the living conditions of citizens. His strategy revolves around seven pillars including social transformation focusing on migrants, children, and vulnerable populations, productive transformation, security, border transformation, and environmental, institutional, and infrastructural strengthening.
Minority candidates
These include Miguel Vargas Maldonado of the Dominican Revolutionary Party, Fulgencio Severino of Homeland for All, Carlos Pe?a of Generation of Servants Party, Virginia Antares of Democratic Option, Roque Espaillat of Democratic Hope, and María Teresa Cabrera of Broad Front. While these parties' proposals vary, they share goals of modernizing and strengthening state institutions, improving public services, healthcare, education, migration management, and respecting natural resources.
POLLS
The polls show that President Abinader remains the frontrunner, with a significant lead in voter preference compared with his main opponents. Electoral competitiveness in the country is low, favoring a political system dominated by one party. The PLD held this dominant position for two decades, but now the PRM seeks to consolidate its influence. Abinader's high polling numbers are also bolstered by this lack of electoral competition, as the main rivals, the PLD and the FP, compete for the same electoral base.
This scenario emerged after Leonel Fernández and his supporters split from the PLD following their defeat in 2019 to form their own party, the People's Force. This also suggests that the main goal of the opposition is to survive this electoral process by securing an acceptable percentage of votes to maintain their status as the leading opposition force.
OVERALL
The elections are taking place against a backdrop of economic stability, with gradual recovery in economic activity and controlled inflation within the range set by the central bank. This has bolstered support for the President Abinader, who has capitalized on macroeconomic stabilization as the primary achievement of his administration following the pandemic. The country still faces significant challenges, including high public debt, substantial spending on energy subsidies, state modernization needs, deficiencies in education, income inequality, and complex relations with Haiti. Yet, contrary to expectations, these challenges have also influenced public favoritism towards Abinader. Local and international analysts, as well as the public, see his potential re-election as an opportunity to finally implement long-delayed structural reforms crucial for the country's development.
President Abinader concluded his electoral campaign by urging voters to reject candidates who have failed to address past issues. He emphasized achievements in public infrastructure over the past four years, progress in combating corruption, and the economic recovery post-2020 pandemic. Meanwhile, the main opposition candidates, Leonel Fernández and Abel Martínez, wrapped up their campaigns stressing the importance of a new government capable of "rescuing" the country from current mismanagement and improving key indicators like extreme poverty. Opposition candidates primarily focused their electoral strategies on criticizing Abinader's administration rather than presenting clear proposals for economic and social development that reflect the country's realities. The main opposition leaders have even deepened antagonism among themselves, failing to present a unified presidential candidacy, as feared by PRM supporters.
If the poll predictions hold true, President Abinader will secure victory in the first round. However, the margin of uncertainty stems from the level of abstention in elections, which has ranged between 27% and 30% in recent years. While the abstention rate is unlikely to significantly affect the outcome of the presidential election given Abinader's considerable lead over his competitors, it could influence the number of seats the PRM secures in the Senate and Chamber of Deputies. Securing a majority in both chambers would provide the PRM with the necessary legitimacy to push forward structural reforms, even in the absence of the required political consensus.The lack would undermine that ability.