Domestic and Geopolitical Implications of the Turkey-Syria Earthquake

There will be many political implications – domestic, regional, and international – of the terrible earthquake that has devastated Turkey and Syria, leaving a cataclysmic humanitarian and economic disaster in its wake. The electoral calculations of President Erdogan will be shaken to the core. Mr Erdogan said the elections will be held on time in mid-May, but declared a state of emergency he claimed would help deter troublemakers, profiteers, and criminals. Critics however said this measure could backfire against the president’s electoral ambitions. For his part, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his regime are unlikely to be rehabilitated politically as a side effect of the international and Arab solidarity with disaster-stricken Syria. Indeed, the Europeans will not rush to normalise ties with the regime while the United States will likely block attempts to bypass sanctions on the Syrian government. Russia is preoccupied with the war with Ukraine and NATO but will assist as much as it can although not to the level of what Syria needs. Russia will be cautious vis-à-vis Turkey, especially in relation to what Ankara may see as Iranian provocations such as the visit by Quds Force commander Ismail Qaani to Aleppo and the remarks he made there. To be sure, Russian President Vladimir Putin needs both the man in Ankara and the man in Damascus, and also needs Iran. In other words, he won’t have a smooth sailing navigating this situation.

Aleppo is suffering from an open wound. This ancient city was already devastated before the earthquake hit, suffering from years of Russian bombardment and the regime’s barrel bombs that Iran and its proxies helped prepare and deploy. Aleppo is also situated near the border with Turkey, and Ankara will not take well Iran’s arrogant message after the earthquake that ‘we are here, and we are in control’. Therefore, Aleppo may be the seed of a Turkish-Iranian standoff that will only harm the city and its surroundings, and the people who live there.

Turkey and Syria may be compelled to improve their relations because of the disaster that has struck both people. However, the recent push for rapprochement between the leaders of the two countries will likely now slow, not only because of the preoccupation with the humanitarian catastrophe, but also because of the competition between Iran and Turkey at this extremely sensitive time, given that the regime in Damascus remains under Iran’s thumb.

Iran will be forced to factor in the impact of the Turkey-Syria earthquake on its regional projects and may now relent. The implications of this disaster will not just be humanitarian. Its regional and geopolitical fallout will force many actors to return to the policy drawing board. Syria is crucial in the list of regional assets of the regime in Tehran. It is an indispensable strategic priority for Iran’s projects, and Tehran is determined to prevent anything that could undermine its control over Syria, which is blessed by Russia. Yet the earthquake has shone a spotlight on Syria and the Iranian dominance there endorsed by Assad regime.

The Republican-controlled House of Representatives will be on the lookout for Russia and Iran’s schemes in Syria, and any attempt to legitimize the Assad regime or bypass the sanctions imposed on it. It will also be on the watch for attempts by the Biden administration to issue waivers to the Caesar Act, the law enacted by Congress targeting individuals and companies providing financing or assistance to the Syrian president and the Iranian and Russian entities that back his regime.

Neither the Biden administration nor Congress are likely to lift sanctions on the Syrian regime on humanitarian grounds. The United States may look into mechanisms that complement the work of international relief organizations, including UN agencies, but will not agree to dealing with the regime to deliver aid to the affected regions, whether under government or rebel control.

US sanctions do not apply to humanitarian aid to begin with, and Congress will not allow any attempt to leverage the humanitarian disaster to end the isolation of the Assad regime. Washington is aware that the Arab countries will feel solidarity with the Syrian people and could be spurred into bypassing the sanctions, but Congress will not allow the United States and the European states to be dragged into the regime’s attempts to capitalize on the disaster.

Take one example: Congress is working to block the project of gas and electricity transit from Egypt to Lebanon via Jordan and Syria, which the Biden administration had touted as a way to help Lebanon. This project required waivers for the Caesar Act and a key role to be played by the World Bank. However, the World Bank from the beginning was hesitant to be part of bypassing the Caesar Act, even at the behest of the Biden administration. Recently, the World Bank made it clear it was not going to become involved in the scheme without Congressional approval of the Caesar Act waiver.

Another effort led by the Republicans in Congress is seeking to keep aid and relief for Syria away from the regime’s hands, and to bypass the Russian veto on opening aid corridors to rebel-held areas. The Republicans believe the UN and other international mechanisms are inadequate, requiring new ones to coordinate between US forces in Syria and the Turkish army to bypass the Syrian government and deliver aid to the affected areas. A sustainable plan is being sought to launch an aid effort immediately without waiting for the approval of the Assad government.

In other words, what the Biden administration may approve could be blocked by Congress, which refuses to allow for the earthquake to become a pretext to rehabilitate Assad. Congress is also working to pass additional laws to prevent Assad, Iran, and Hezbollah from benefitting from the disaster.

The disaster may soften tensions between the United States and Turkey’s president. But Turkey’s huge needs will require Mr Erdogan to seek an offramp on many levels.

Indeed, Turkey is in dire economic straits. Entire cities have been devastated, requiring billions of dollars for reconstruction that the immediate aid, worth mere millions, will not even begin to cover. Europe is tied down by its own problems and the war with Russia, which could escalate into a direct pan-European or even a world war. The United States is not eager to offer billions to Turkey unless it can collect a suitable price in return, such as Mr Erdogan abandoning his intransigence on the issue of Finland and Sweden’s membership of NATO – Turkey is a member of the alliance and accession of new members require the unanimous support of all existing members.

What will Mr Erdogan do with how Europe and the United States consider his positions on Finland, Sweden, and Greece to be unusually arrogant, at a time when Turkey desperately needs huge assistance proportionate to the extent of the major disaster? He could double down on his positions or he could reassess, including his relations with Putin, today the main lifeline for the Russian president and the Russian economy against Western isolation and sanctions.

Erdogan’s need for huge assistance from the United States and NATO members could force him to adapt to Western demands, at least in terms of ceasing his provocations of NATO in Europe and curtailing his Russian nexus. Most likely, the Turkish president will stop his threats against Greece, Sweden, and Finland, and his other plans to challenge NATO. He may be forced to show some humility, which will no doubt cause him great pain.

This means that Mr Erdogan will have to change his approach and forget his dreams of Ottoman revival. Indeed, the price tag of such a dream is in the billions of dollars, while the needs for relief and reconstruction in Turkey after the earthquake will exceed the ability of the brittle Turkish economy to handle. Moreover, this horrific earthquake may not have concluded yet, with some reports suggesting another earthquake of a similar magnitude could follow.

The February 6 earthquake will paralyze many of Erdogan’s projects, from central Asia and Azerbaijan to Libya and his endorsement of the Muslim Brotherhood project. It will impose changes on his foreign policy and curtail his threats to establish a buffer zone inside Syrian territory.

The damage from the quake to the Turkish president, the Russian president, and their expensive projects is momentous – Putin was forced recently to link the fate of the Russian economy to the person of Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his survival in power.

However, the earthquake may alter the electoral calculus in Turkey for many reasons, including the fact that the Turkish president has leveraged foreign policy to try to convince voters of his ambitious program for the country. If he is forced to focus on the home front in the aftermath of the quake, he could lose a precious card in his campaign to secure re-election.

Put differently, the earthquake may benefit the opposition in Turkey. It has a chance to unite and perhaps win the election, because the battle will be focused on domestic issues not foreign policy now. Moreover, the state of emergency may become electoral fodder for both Erdogan and the opposition, as it is a double edged sword. Indeed, the mood of the Turks may not abide a full coup against democracy.

It is still early to assess the full dimensions of a disaster that has devastated Turkey and Syria, killing more than 30,000 and destroying entire cities. Millions of people are mourning and weeping, as the corpses of children are removed from the rubble and their families are trying to come to terms with their loss. What is also painful is that this will not be the last tragedy. The world that fought back its tears watching it unfold will soon move on to other global crises, while the suffering of the surviving victims will last a long time, as things stand.

May God have mercy on the dead and the living.