Dollar’s not done yet

Happy Friday, readers.?Hallam Bullock here, reporting from London.?

There's a key US jobs report dropping at 8:30 a.m. today. It may seem like nonfarm payrolls have been a B-list macro datapoint since the Consumer Price Index has taken the spotlight all year, but the September report is of particular importance.?

The Fed will be watching very closely for signs the labor market, and thus the economy, is cooling off, feeding into its decision making over the path of rate hikes. Economists are expecting 250,000 new jobs added in September, which would be down from 315,000 in August.?

While we wait for the jobs report, let's turn our attention to the dollar, which according to UBS, isn't done rising yet.?

Let's see what they have to say.

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1. The surging US dollar has yet to peak.?That's according to UBS, which thinks the Federal Reserve is unlikely to start cutting interest rates any time soon, keeping the dollar rising against rival currencies globally.?

The greenback has already flown up 16.7% this year,?bolstered by Fed rate hikes?and weaknesses among major counterparts. But hopes of a pivot in the Fed's policy pumped the brakes on its rise recently, with the US dollar index, which measures the buck against a basket of six currencies, retreating on the speculation fueled by a?fall in US job openings?and a?lower-than-expected rate increase in Australia.

However, UBS's analysts, led by CIO Mark Haefele, said in a note to clients this week that it's too early to call a peak in both Fed hawkishness and the US dollar.?

"The number of job openings in the US remains much higher than those unemployed, while the latest core personal consumption expenditure price index showed that inflation is still elevated," the note read.?

"Fed officials including Chair Jerome Powell have stressed that?the central bank's job is not yet done."?

Against a backdrop of global uncertainty amid the war in Ukraine, the pressure weighing on the euro is likely to prop up the dollar in the near future, UBS says.?

The monthly jobs report today will give more insight into the labor market and what the Fed might do — and the likely future path of the dollar.

Do you think the dollar still has room to rise??Let us know in the comments.

In other news:

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4. A personal finance expert shared his top financial advice for women in their 20s, 30s, 40s, 50s and 60s.?As women are moving up in their careers, starting businesses, investing and making more money, their financial goals and needs are constantly changing. Ernest Burley, CFP, who has been in the financial planning industry for over 25 years,?laid out some of the biggest financial moves a woman can make in her life, decade-by-decade.

5. Middle Eastern powers are pushing the price of oil higher right before crucial midterm elections.?OPEC+ is adding political pressure on the Biden administration by slashing its oil production by 2 million barrels per day — and?the White House is not happy about it.

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This newsletter was curated by Hallam Bullock.