The Doldrums

The doldrums refer to an area of the Atlantic Ocean along the equator. Winds are generally light to non-existent, and often difficult to predict. In Washington, DC, August often provides a similar forecast of light activity. Congress takes an extended district work period also known as?recess, while DC staffs and executive branch decision makers flee the humidity by heading toward the shore, the mountains, or a well-deserved family vacation.

This August we find circumstances that don’t readily conform to the way things typically are in Washington, DC.

Election?fever is at a heightened pitch with an unplanned presidential match-up that came to fruition in a matter of days. Fundraising is heightened, and down-ballot races have taken on new dimensions. The potential for chambers to shift control from one party to the other presents new opportuntities for candidates and issues.

An assassination attempt on a presidential candidate reveals cracks, fissures, poor accountability, and—wait for it—hearings. These hearings appear to be refreshingly sober and bipartisan; however, their proximity to the elections assures ongoing political posturing and messaging will emerge.

The business of?funding the government?for the coming fiscal year (FY25?begins October 1st) once again lags well behind the required pace for on-time funding of the government. You know what that means—a continuing resolution is inevitable.

Some House Republicans argued that August recess should be abandoned in favor of completing the appropriations bills. Curiously, that same faction also voted the bills down earlier in the year.?

Washington, DC, is anything but dull this August, yet, depending on one’s news sources, few can interpret what’s really different and what it means for them.

Clients in regular conversation with me understand a few of the unfolding Washington realities that translate directly to their business.

1. The presidential election, while consequential, will have only an oblique relationship to the contracts on your horizon for the next two years. The US government spent $574 billion in July alone; $71 billion on defense.
2. The late funding of the government for FY24, that arrived at program offices six months late, is sloshing over the gunnels of government—it can’t all be put on contract, and the fight is on to reprogram and obligate funds.
3. We will have a continuing resolution that comes in two steps. The first will kick the FY25 funding can from October 1st into the post-election Lame Duck Congress. The second will further kick the FY25 funding can from Thanksgiving until late January/early February. The rationale will be, “We need to let the new administration and new Congress form its position.”
4. The ongoing geopolitical instability will continue to create a demand signal on the US defense markets.Russia/Ukraine may well resolve with new borders, but the need for US equipment and supplies will remain. Although NATO is more engaged than before this skirmish, it remains unable to secure Ukraine without US involvement. No meaningful change will take place before the election.The Middle East will require a shift in carrier deployment strategy for the foreseeable future.? The US posture to cover 5th and 6th fleets with one carrier is not sufficient in the near term. This Obama-era change in force deployment strategy will be reversed until Iran is dealt with by the US and world community.With carrier deployments now out of cycle and the US again distracted in the Middle East, the Indo-PACOM region continues to demand US attention. While the recent RIMPAC exercise was as impressive as ever with its size, its composition of forces does not provide the required mix of assets to secure US interests.?

Defense spending?will continue to increase, and will remain the largest opportunity for public sector?sales. Governing from the middle will be required. That’s not a popular position in our polarized environment however, it’s what the world will demand of the United States. National security is bi-partisan.

Our strategy, policy, and political messaging are out of alignment at the moment. The misalignment contributes to the feeling of chaotic fits and starts. History will confirm we continue to live during momentous times.?

While uneven in its distribution of access to capital, the US economy is at its strongest in history.?Every metric confirms this.?

While the US military is currently stressed and underfunded, it remains the most potent military force in history.?Opportunity is all around for any company in the US industrial base. The process through which opportunity is reached is sometimes unfair, but it is learnable. While we complain about the hardships of commercial air travel, Americans continue to fill flights to capacity and can visit nearly any country in the world in a matter of hours. Italy is the top European travel destination for Americans this fall.?For those flying, how often do you have an empty seat next to you?

While our electric car policies continue to miss the mark as we subsidize a market we hope to create; car travel is at an all-time high during the summer months in the United States. In a given year, Americans travel hundreds of billions of vehicle miles using whatever car they have.?People want to, and can, go where they like.

Nvidia stock, in one month this summer, increased in value by more than the GDP of Australia. The chip that underpins AI is setting the stage for a transformation of the workforce and work, the likes of which we can hardly imagine.

August is proving to be anything but dull. Can you see it?

Join Kate Robb and myself in Orlando on January 17th, 2025, for a one-day intensive on capturing sales success from the very beginning. Learn proven strategies to outshine your competitors and achieve unprecedented results. Don’t miss this opportunity to transform your sales approach!?Learn more and register here.