DOHA FORUM, QATAR 2022 SOME EX-POST REFLECTIONS

It was good to have visited the Doha Forum in Qatar last week. I hope that the organizers do accept this little post-scriptum article also as a well-meant ‘Thank you for the invitation’.

I left the conference with basically 4 major impressions. I am sure that some or many of you won’t agree with part of these reflections. But I nonetheless decided to write them off my chest, so as to give a personal summary of this great event. One that includes elements of an emerging market expert’s view. Based on three decades of experience with countries that are not so mainstream for most of us.

1)?????HEAVY-WEIGHTS THAT CAN MAKE AN IMPACT

Most events that I attend have one or a few so-called ‘heavy-weight’ keynote speakers, surrounded by an army of specialists. Tempting to say ‘Guys or girls at my level’ here! Not this forum. Obviously the live video connection with Zelensky in his bunker (see attached photo) was a highlight. But the presence of the ruling family of Qatar; high level ministers and former ministers from Qatar, Turkey, Iran, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Africa etc.; John Kerry, Bill Gates, Malala from Afghanistan; high-level business leaders like for instance Total Energies CEO Pouyanne; FIFA president Infantino, and well-known people from the creative world (including David Beckham whose presence really seemed to be different for a large part of the audience even in such a setting!) really translated into something special. And that the hosts of the Qatar Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Qatar Investment Authority took care of the bill for their guests and Forum attendees showed also how keen they were to make this 20th Doha Forum a success.

For me the big lesson was, that in such an event with so many heavy-weights, the atmosphere normalizes. Gone where the herds of people chasing the 1-2 important people (caveat: maybe with the exception of how Turkish attendees chased ministers Cavusoglu and Akar, but having lived in Turkey for some time that was no real surprise to me. Quite sure that most Turks know what I mean!). Instead, interactions with anyone were easier. As if it took away hierarchy in the mindset of all attendees. And that was fantastic for the brainstorms during and especially after sessions. For more information on the impressive line-up, see www.dohaforum.org

2)?????WILL THE RELATIVE IMPORTANCE OF POLITICAL VERSUS ECONOMIC FACTORS IN FINANCIAL MARKETS CHANGE?

This Forum was most certainly (far) more (geo)politics than economics or finance. Something that is logical in an emerging markets context, but maybe important for the world long-term as well, if only because EMFM countries are gaining in importance vis-à-vis the developed world. For a westerner who specialized more and more in EMFM financial markets over the years this neatly fitted with a world in which Foreign Affairs magazine and starts-of-the-day with Al Jazeera (yep, from Qatar!), Russia Today, China’s Global Times next to my Western news sources became the new normal. Although I agree that the Financial Analysts Journal is never totally far away.

Food for thought (now that AI gains in importance and gives us opportunities that were not there in the past): with EMFM countries increasing in market share this could imply that your old quant and fundamental investment models need some kind of geopolitical multiplier or even a separate factor block. I recall that professor Camp Harvey at Duke University in the US did some interesting work on political risk indicators already decades ago, but that the problem back then was always that the availability of such political indicators was ‘too infrequent, noisy or subjective’ to really translate into smashing results. With AI and online screening of daily news, I wouldn’t be surprised to see this type of work becoming more important in the years that lie ahead of us. Note: this was not really something discussed at the Forum. More a reflection that I took with me on my way back being the quant that I still am (EVD). If you find this of interest, feel free to connect and brainstorm!

3)?????ANOTHER WAY OF LOOKING AT THE UKRAINE-RUSSIA CONFLICT

‘A war like no other’ when you believe Western media…. ‘Just a conflict like so many others before, but those times without Western outrage’ according to most EMFM-based attendants at the Forum. Well, there is a core of truth in that. Just like how it was remarkable to see that those with EMFM background did look at maps over a longer period of time, while carefully weighing the available information from year to year: of course NATO was moving towards the East; and that was asking for trouble. Global powers – and that holds for Russia as well as for the US and others – do one way or another control whatever their neighbors do or try to do. And in similar fashion they are always interested in gaining influence in the neighboring countries of fellow global powers. Russia-Cuba and the Pigs Bay crisis in the sixties; the Taiwan-China case; China-India; India-Pakistan-Iran-Afghanistan etc.

As an avid and reasonable chess player whose first explores behind the iron curtain took place in 1981 (see pic below with a much better looking me in Uzbekistan), ‘Russia’ (and in similar fashion all other Soviet Republics, including Ukraine!) was not an evil empire monolithically reduced to one dictator (be it Putin or predecessors), but a large territory where I had and have lots of friends. Initially mainly from chess, and later also from business. And I knew what would come. People from the East – contrary to ‘Zapadniks’ – do normally do what they say and say what they do. With this terrible clash as a result. But no matter how you look at it: the current Western outrage is strange, when comparing it with earlier silence in other cases.

The interview session with Dr Omar Suleiman, a New Orleans-born Islamic Scholar of Palestinian descent at the Doha Forum was for me definitely one of the highlights. Suleiman is the founder of the Yaqeen Institute, one of the fastest-growing religious organisations in the US. Suleiman is soft-spoken with balanced views. So definitely not a shocking surprise that he is also associated with Southern Methodist University, an excellent US university with a Christian background. In some ways his interaction with the interviewer reminded me a bit of the thoughts I had when I met with the late dr Tantawy (Grand Imam in the Azar in Cairo; one of the most senior Islamic scholars) to learn more about Islamic Finance. Questions were met with wise counter-questions that left one thinking. When looking at the world from another angle than the Western one, you learn that it is tricky to preach one or the other type of moral superiority when having a colonial background and history. A visit to the National Museum of Qatar gave a good insight into the country's past, including the days in which it was a British Protectorate. Protect from what? Basically something quite similar to how people like Al Capone were protecting retailers against themselves in exchange for protection money. In a way the use of the word 'protectorate' is quite shocking here. Reminds me of how the Dutch talk about 'politionele acties', when referring to the aggressive suppression of freedom struggles in Indonesia after WW2 translated into a situation in which basically the Japanese occupation helped kickstart their breakthrough against the Dutch.

And not just that: ‘isn’t it the ultimate form of being anti-democratic and post-colonial when insisting that another country should do this or that so as to be admitted to the ‘league of the righteous few’? The essence of democracy is that each group of voters decides on their own house. How can we insist on those in another place doing this or that because that is better for us, when we would at the same time feel appalled when they would insist on us changing things in similar fashion? This is not just true between nations, but also true on a much smaller scale. I am originally from the Dutch religious east, i.e. the Bible Belt. If the folks in Amsterdam would apply their local rules to the city where I come (Kampen near Zwolle) from and vice versa, one probably would already initiate the start of a confrontation between – definitely – youngsters, and probably - sooner or later - other age classes would join. No Dutch style debates with hours and hours of talking. Nope: clash like the confrontations we also see in France (les tricots jaunes) or in the former GDR in Germany. The moment you see yourself as the right side of the equation with all its details and tons of people with different opinions etc. all having a face; and the opponent as a dim or grim monolithic entity with inhabitants without a face, chances are that one or the other type of fake or distorted, one-sided news quickly enters your equation. Not less than it may be the case on the other side.

4)?????FROM WOKE TO A NEW GLOBAL BALANCE?

From a woke, almost authoritarian environment where ‘correct people’ (whatever that may be) are supposed to share a common belief, to a more balanced view that freely reports on the various points of view across the world. I admit that I did not expect to take that back from the Doha Forum and my Qatar trip. But I did. Not just at the Forum but also during the journey by plane. Qatar Airways’ entertainment system allowed me to watch 2 Russian movies at the flight from and into Doha. Both were made before the conflict. One was called ‘Goodbye America’, a comedy about Russian immigrants in the US, and the other was ‘Ne Football’, about a girl soccer team, which if you want to see more than just another comedy was a peek inside into Russian diversity struggles. Of course… why not! The actors and directors created these movies before the conflict and they cannot be held responsible for what happened later. So any type of embargo that would not allow people to watch it, seems to be more borne by a kind of frustration about not wanting to fight the Russian army directly than that it has anything to do with fairness. Just think of it: did we ever stop showing NBA basketball or boycott Israeli or US sports stars based on what their countries were doing? Nope, we didn’t. And that was in a way good. Holding people responsible for what their country is doing right or wrong simply based on the passport they are holding seems unjust and unfair. Of course you may object saying that this was all related to cases in which a true army was protecting 'morals' and 'rights' with the weaker enemy acting in a terrorist manner. But be realistic! After the horrendous WW1 and its battles in Belgium, the world moved further. People like Che Guevara taught the weaker parties some 'strategy': don't try to fight the fight in the same way as the stronger enemy does it. That is collective suicide. Fight smarter when weaker. This is not intended to imply support of terrorism. But it is just to stress that in any power struggle and geopolitical conflict there are two sides of the equation. And globalization in a world in which we have more than one dominant power implies that by necessity it is beneficial to try to incorporate all views, without upfront assuming that yours is the sole truth. It often is not.

And also: there is even a flaw in logic here when looking at things exclusively from the Western angle. If we reject political decision taking structures in other countries as being the result of elites superimposing their will on the ordinary people (i.e. those countries not being democratic), then – if that is true – it also means that you should not ban those ordinary folks from sports events etc. Make up your mind: if they have influence and are responsible for their system, then they are guilty as charged. But guess what: in that case one has to democratically respect that other countries take different decisions and decide on their own country. Otherwise you fall back into post-colonial thinking. True, we have established the United Nations to help solve international conflicts in a decent manner. With the Security Council as strongest decision-taking body within the UN. But even there: when the US uses its veto right (with normally France and the UK joining their big brother's dance), we tend to read in Western news sources that this is done in the interest of global peace and justice. And when China or Russia use it, it is considered to be blocking global peace and justice. That can only be true when your base philosophy is in all cases 'I am right and they are wrong'. But guess what: the emancipation of emerging markets - many of which were former colonies - has translated into those countries often admiring the new independent powerhouses China and Russia for their determination to stand up and create a more balanced world.

The fact that a few days after the Forum the FIFA Annual Meeting had its member states decide to vote for accepting Russian as official language (see picture below; credits Al Mayadeen English) - and with a landslide majority - it was in a way also showing this aspect very clear:

When we Westerners have an issue with EMFM countries X, Y, or Z (or all of them combined), we tend to (still) call it ‘The World versus X, Y and/or Z’…. but both in terms of number of people and more and more economic size as well, we have to learn to talk in terms of ‘us versus them’ (if you want to talk that way of course; I prefer 'me and you'). And moral and ethical leadership? I doubt if it is correct to give former colonial empires any benefit of the doubt on that one, as long as economist me can still see ‘coincidental’ (?) correlations in most cases between what we label morally-correct and what would be economically best for the former global leading powers.

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