Dog Days

Hello from Sydney,

According to several reckonings, last Friday marked the end of this year’s ‘dog days’, measured by the transit of Sirius, the Dog Star. Others will cite a different date – it depends on the latitude – but today, dog days are mainly associated with the hottest weeks of the northern summer, and the time to take off work, rather than the celestial calendar.

This year, however, they may be remembered differently. As heat records lose their shock value, and work and leisure get blurred, this year’s dog days were perhaps more notable for

• the elections in Britain, France, Iran, and Venezuela;
• the intensification of the US presidential race (from the attempted killing of Trump, to Biden's exit); and
• escalations in the Middle East and Ukraine (from the death of Ismail Haniyeh, to the invasion of Kursk).

Add in English riots, a Japanese market crash, and Bangladeshi regime change, and it seems there’s been more news in the languid heat of this year’s summer than in the totality of a normal year. And that’s not counting the Olympics (or mpox).

But lest this present a high noon as it were, the pace is likely to only pick up from here, as August moves to September, the US election gets closer, and other polls – from Algeria and Austria in September, to Uruguay and Uzbekistan in October – get started. Economically, there are big moves to come as well. In policy, there’s a likely easing of US rates in September and an OPEC meeting in December. In markets, there are possible IPOs for Klarna, Stripe and Shein.

But returning to this week and next – where forecasting and analysis tend to be more incisive – what’s on the nearer horizon? The biggest event we see coming up, and which has already shaped some of this week’s developments, may surprise you: the impending release of China’s annual “standard map” update.

This year, like last, we don’t expect many changes. But like last year, we expect China’s ongoing claims to the South China Sea, Arunachal Pradesh in India, and the Doklam Plateau in Bhutan, to irritate its neighbours. We also expect China to continue to claim Bolshoy Ussuriysky Island, at the junction of the Amur and Ussuri rivers, despite a sovereignty-sharing agreement with Russia, plus of course Taiwan and the Japanese-administered Senkaku Islands.

This will exacerbate tensions with Washington and its allies. It will complicate attempts in Delhi to stabilise the border. And it will remind Moscow, which has annoyed Beijing in North Korea, of who really controls continental Asia.

But one thing the map won’t likely show is any new claim to the ethnic-Han regions of northern Myanmar, which are now out of the junta’s grip and are advocating for secession as rebel forces seize more territories. It also won’t show the parts of northern Laos, which Chinese settlers are economically colonising (helped in part by the opening of a high-speed rail line). Yet these unacknowledged irredentist adventures are perhaps more real (and more worrying) than China’s shadow-boxing on uninhabited atolls off the Philippine coast.?

As for our own geopolitical map of the world - not of the future, but of last week - you can find below a digest of all our coverage with links to the full stories.?

All the best

Damien

Europe

• UKRAINE. RUSSIA. The IAEA warns of another Chernobyl at Kursk.
• RUSSIA. CHINA. Eurasia’s giants deepen their ties, but not without risk.
• EUROPE. CHINA. An investigation opens into EU dairy imports.
• FRANCE. An attempt to dismiss Macron will fail, but it won’t help his cause.
• GERMANY. Budget holes and Landtag elections constrain Scholz's options.
• MOLDOVA. Another crucial November election looms.
• BELGIUM. An extension is given to form an improbable coalition.
• UKRAINE. RUSSIA. Kyiv seems to be playing for a penalty shootout.
• AZERBAIJAN. RUSSIA. Putin visits on the eve of a possible Armenian peace deal.

Asia

• TAIWAN. CHINA. Lai makes a trip to the frontline.
• MPOX. A clade 1b case is confirmed in Thailand.
• THAILAND. Thaksin’s court case is adjourned as Paetongtarn forms government.
• AUSTRALIA. INDONESIA. Canberra and Jakarta enshrine blank space into law.
• JAPAN. RUSSIA. Another warning of a ‘megaquake’.
• MPOX. China announces border screening measures.

Middle East

• THE RED SEA. Deterrence goes out in a blazing oil tanker.
• ISRAEL. IRAN. Tehran finds more reasons to delay its response.
• AFGHANISTAN. Kabul rebuilds its diplomatic relations.
• ISRAEL. PALESTINE. Hamas declines Antony Blinken’s ‘bridging offer’.
• ISRAEL. IRAN. As ceasefire talks collapse, Tehran could get its signal.

Americas

• ARGENTINA. The Senate makes a unified move against Milei.

• PARAGUAY. CHINA. Asunción spies a backdoor to Beijing.
• UNITED STATES. Amid job number jitters, even Elon Musk may be looking for a role.
• MEXICO. The judiciary goes on strike amid a gang war.