Does Your Organization Suffer From Demographic Change Blindness?

Change blindness is when an individual (or in this context, an organization) fails to perceive a change in their environment. But, what we see or don’t see is not only applicable to physical objects in our visual field, it includes changes in our environment that may only be indicated by what many might consider as mind-numbing statistics. Consider demographic change — a mass of data of numbers and lifestyle trends that often appears too far in the future to factor into today’s strategy.

My recent MarketWatch article, Who's to blame in the air travel blame game, discusses how the aviation industry (both air carriers and government) suffer from demographic change blindness. The result? Countless delays, cancelations, and a blame game that ranges from government blaming industry, industry blaming government, everyone blaming the pandemic and the weather.?

While these are contributing factors to lost hours and days in airport terminals nationwide, poor workforce planning, the aging of the aviation workforce, decades long labor shortages across the enterprise, as well as waves of retirements, and foreseeable drivers of increased travel demand are something that everyone in transportation saw coming decades ago but failed to act. Instead, decision makers from corporate boards, to C-suites, as well as senior government decision makers saw demographic change as a background issue too far in the future to factor into actions that would prepare the air travel industry for tomorrow. That tomorrow is today.

Is your organization, your industry, suffering from demographic change blindness? Do you see the implications of population aging, massive retirement waves, dropping birthrates, fewer workers, and changing life stages/lifestyles as something to address now, or down the road? Many industries cite the pandemic as causing current workforce challenges and changes in consumer behavior — but like the air travel industry —many of these changes were foreseeable. Is your organization aware of demographic changes that are underway today shaping your environment tomorrow?

For example, the aging of the baby boomers has been in the news…since they were born. How many magazine covers celebrated boomers turning 30, 40, 50, 60, 65, and beyond. Likewise, the birth rate in the United States has declined nearly 50%, not just in recent years, but over the last 70 years. Despite these observable changes, business and government decision makers did not see the demographic transition coming or did not see it as something to be addressed on their watch.

Consider a few sectors facing the results of demographic change blindness.

Healthcare — Healthcare workers are not just crunched from pandemic exhaustion, they are facing a demographic reality that has been in the making for decades. Just when you may need your doctor most, they may be retiring. As I wrote in a previous MarketWatch article, the average age of primary care physicians are well into their 50s and nurses are averaging about 50 years old. Need a specialist? Cardiologists, and others that are likely to be in high demand to care for an aging population, are averaging about 60-years old.

Financial Services — The person guiding you into retirement is likely to be planning their own exit from the workforce, maybe even before you. The average financial advisors age is about 58 years old.

Agriculture — Should you be planting your own garden? Farmers are now averaging 60+ years old.

Trucking — My MIT Center for Transportation & Logistics colleague David Correll has focused on the trucking workforce exploring the past, current, and future shortage of drivers, where the average driver age today is already 50+.

Higher Education — Many colleges and universities are now confronting the realities of a declining birth rate. There are simply fewer 18 to 21 year olds to enroll in degree programs causing some colleges to shutter their doors or others to lower their expectations for tuition income. Most, however, are failing to recognize that their future might be found in providing education programs that cross the lifespan and include middle-aged and older students seeking a career change or wanting to maintain their competitive edge in the workforce.

Small Business Owners - The average small business owner (responsible for employing nearly half of the United States workforce) is 50+ years old, planning retirement, and facing a succession crisis. That is, there is no one to take over the business. A crisis that will affect the jobs and household incomes of millions as well as the economic vitality of Main Street, USA.

These are just a few industry sectors that my colleagues and I at the MIT AgeLab are examining. Has your organization, your industry, conducted a scan of its demographic future? What’s next for recruiting, training, and retaining tomorrow’s workforce? How are the demographics of your consumers, clients, patients, or suppliers changing -- thereby impacting their wants, needs, expectations, and capacity??

Unlike technology that moves at an uncertain, but high velocity, or economics that is based upon many moving assumptions, demography is often destiny. Most of us will be caught by surprise by technological innovations that seemingly come directly from the pages of science fiction, or shocked by unexpected market changes, only to be explained later as the result of "animal spirits."

Demography, however, provides relative clarity in at least one dimension of the future — the human dimension, addressing who will do the work, who will be the consumers, where is demand likely to come from, where is it likely to recede.?That is a future that no organization should be caught flying blind into.?

Want to learn more about demographic change blindness or share a comment? Comment here on LinkedIn or contact me at [email protected].