Does Trump's victory matter to the world?

Does Trump's victory matter to the world?

The consequences of the US presidential election have extensive impressions not only on the United States of America but also on the entire world. Primarily, the election focuses on internal issues like inflation, abortion, and jobs. However, the global impact of this election is immense, as the USA is the world’s largest economy and trading country, determining international relations, geopolitics, global trade, diplomacy, and climate change with over 200 nations.

The two parties, Democratic and Republican represent different ideologies. Harris’s foreign policy focuses on Biden's American exceptionalism with liberal internationalism and pragmatism. On the other hand, Trump is known for his isolationist strategy, questioning alliances like NATO and using trade as a weapon. American foreign policies under Trump remain unfinished after his first term in 2016-2020, particularly relations with Iran, North Korea, China, Russia, and the EU/NATO allies. Donald Trump’s victory may leave drastic ramifications on the global economy, trade, diplomacy, and geopolitics.?

‘’A real businessman or entrepreneur has no enemies, once he understands this, the sky is the limit.” This is why Donald Trump, the President of the United States is not bad for Asia or Africa but not good for the UK & Europe.

Asia

Bangladesh: We have to acknowledge that a lot has changed in Bangladesh with a new interim government leader, Dr. Md. Yunus, who was a critic of Donald Trump previously. There is a trade partnership between Bangladesh and the US. Based on geopolitical considerations it's important for the USA to not back away too much from Bangladesh which could drive the country even closer to China. If Trump decides that he wants to calm down the USA-China competition, it would be very helpful for USA-Bangladesh relations and Bangladesh's economic and political interests on the whole.?

Pakistan: Regarding Afghanistan Trump’s previous actions with Pakistan were marked with negativity. Trump’s 2nd term, can put Pakistan under pressure in counterterrorism efforts. Pakistan may face restrictions on military aid in the future.

Afghanistan: Trump’s decision to pull USA troops out of Afghanistan can define his approach in the region. His foreign policy might prioritize counterterrorism operations without engaging in nation-building, which may leave Afghanistan unstable in the coming years.

India: China has been the main reason for the USA's engagement with India. India’s close relations with Washington come from the two countries' shared goal: Limiting China in the Indo-Pacific region. Trump is likely to deepen geopolitical engagement with India and the QUAD (United States, India, Japan, and Australia) keeping pressure on China. Indian defense and technology partnerships may get a boost, and New Delhi might attract more private investment and global supply chains.?

China: Trade is the most critical issue in the USA’s anti-China foreign policy. Both parties agreed on the importance of decreasing reliance on Chinese imports and reducing the trade deficit with China. Which led to the enforcement of embargos during both the first Trump and outgoing Biden governments. President Trump started the trade war against China in 2018, imposing tariffs up to 25% on Chinese goods under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974. Trump aims to bring back manufacturing jobs to the USA that were lost to external competitors, particularly China. Trump has proposed universal baseline tariffs on most imported foreign consumer goods, though this policy does not directly target China.

Universal baseline taxes would be a major hit to Chinese exporters as the USA is a big export market for China. Trump has also promised to “end reliance on China” by adopting many extreme steps, like canceling China’s most-favored national (MFN) status. China’s scientific, military, and technological development and the USA’s reliance on Chinese imported technologies are seen as a national threat. The USA claims that China has gained an unfair privilege over competitors through corporate espionage and forced technology transfer. However, Trump's isolationist tendencies can reduce the US’s global dominance, indirectly favoring China by weakening the US’s global alliances. His less interventionist strategy may lean the balance of power in China’s favor in the Asia-Pacific regions.

Middle-East: Israel is hoping for more full-throated US support for its military plans from a second Trump term. This is unlikely to improve conditions for the Palestinians or create a path towards a Palestinian state. Trump's victory likely represents a new shift in American policy on Yemen, adopting a tougher position against the ‘Houthis’ as a part of the “maximum pressure” policy on Iran.

Trump’s energy policies have historically favored fossil fuels, and his presidency can once again support the oil industries, benefiting Gulf countries reliant on hydrocarbon exports. By bringing back the transactional approach with Gulf monarchs, the new Trump administration will disregard any democratic and human rights norms. The new Trump administration will focus on finding a path for normalizing Arab-Isreal relations and continuing maximum embargoes on Iran. ? ? ??

Europe

Donald Trump’s election victory is nothing but bad news for Europe. Europeans have to suffer politically, economically, and strategically from his “America first” policies and his unpredictable transactions in global affairs. In his second term, Trump can take a more isolationist stance to decrease US outdoor engagements. Trump has been a strong critic of NATO and has warned to withdraw the US from the treaty, which would significantly wane the West’s global influence. The common risks of a 2nd Trump presidency are a battle against European regulation of US social media platforms, AI, and cryptocurrencies, encouragement of conservative nationalists, undermining of NATO, and transatlantic trade war.

Europe is now under pressure from the US-China trade conflict. Europe is facing the cheap Chinese goods diverted from the US market while Washington is demanding Europe to curtail economic ties with Beijing. Transatlantic relations have left Europe in great trouble. European economies are lagging behind the USA and China in productivity, investment, and innovation. On fears of migration and globalization, right-wing politicians are on the rise across Europe. Trump's presidency may pull European conservatives further to the right on gender issues and migration, waning Europe’s liberal values.

Influential members of the Russian elite are seeing Donald Trump’s resurgence as a chance for Russia to weaken the Western block in Ukraine and change the global balance of power. Trump’s idea that “America should focus on domestic issues over backing countries like Ukraine” is being viewed as a possible win for Russia's ambitions to establish its influence globally. Trump’s victory is seen as a success for isolationist, conservative forces, aligned with Russia, to counter the liberal, Western-led world order that the Kremlin and its allies have been trying to challenge for so long.

Trump’s energy policy pivots towards fossil fuels. The US renewable market, which is a growth area for many European utilities, faces uncertainty as Trump’s policy could affect projects, especially offshore wind developments. The new Trump administration will try to increase the export of US LNG (liquefied natural gas) to the EU, which would create an over-reliance on a single supplier as Europe moves away from Russian LNG. At the same time, the Trump administration could charge a tariff on LNG which would effectively increase LNG prices and household expenses even further in Europe.

Africa

Trump’s positions on abortion and LGBTQ issues, resonate deeply in Africa as its population is mostly Christian or Muslim. Many on the continent have embraced the Republican narrative that a strong US economy goes well for African trade with the rest of the world. Africans are hoping that Trump's “America First” policy means he would leave the continent alone. Trump would focus on how Africa fits within his broader geopolitical objectives, especially regarding his rivalry with China and Russia. Democracy and human rights may not be prioritized for strategic interest under Trump.

?

In the past, Trump wasn’t anti-Obama, Biden wasn’t anti-Trump, and now Trump is unlikely to be anti-Biden. The victory of Donald Trump as the 47th president of the United States is not a surprise like all other mishaps and polarizations of the Democratic Party and its leadership. However, Trump's return may heighten existing uncertainties on both the domestic and foreign policies.?

The “America First” and “Make America Great Again” slogans will return to the front, though these narratives are not translated into immediate, meaningful, and nationwide ways. Nonetheless, Trump's new term starts with ongoing wars in Palestine and Ukraine. Trump and his government will likely move for ceasefires or temporary peace deals to showcase their peacemaking agenda and the ability to “stop war,” as he mentioned in his victory speech in Florida.