Does a "Temporary" Immigration Ban Make Sense? NO!

The main headline today is Trump's announcement of a "temporary" ban on immigration. Does such a ban make sense? The short answer is NO, it doesn't make sense.

My answer is based on two main points. (1) This isn't really about protecting the U.S. from COVID19 -- it's a politically motivated move to advance the administration's long-term agenda of lowering immigration. (2) Restricting immigration, even temporarily, is dangerous because it hampers the ability of the country to recover from the pandemic in the short term and to grow economically in the long term. I will try to go short on the political issues, because they are well-covered by the media, and to go long on the facts and data to support my second point.

The Politics

Why is this move politically motivated? Because travel and immigration have already mostly halted due to the threat of COVID19. No executive order is needed to restrict them even further. And as the health threats of traveling decline, immigration would return to its normal flow without needing an explicit presidential decree. If there was a time to close the border temporarily, that was way back in January/February when the administration had information about the looming threat. Now the virus is within the U.S. borders and the greatest risks of infection are internal, not external. So why threaten a ban on immigration now? Because it's a cover for a much longer-lasting objective to keep a campaign promise and continue efforts to lower legal immigration. I note this explicitly because the agenda of the administration is not just about restricting undocumented immigration, but immigration in general. Under the guise of "temporary" security concerns, the executive branch can extend this for quite a long time. The muslim travel ban is a very similar precedent.

The Likely Consequences

Limiting immigration will be directly damaging for the country's ability to fight COVID19 and for the recovery of the economy for at least the following reasons. My points here are based on over a decade of studying how immigration affects firms and the economy.

1. The US needs a lot more health care workers to deal with the crisis. Already 1/4 of health professionals in this country are immigrants, and more are desperately needed. Indeed, the State department recently announced efforts to make it easier for medical professionals to enter the country Even a "temporary" immigration ban will make it harder to get the additional health professionals we need.

2. The US depends on migrant workers to secure our food supply. They work on farms, meat processing plants, food service, etc. Even a "temporary" ban will make it harder to feed the country.

3. The US depends on immigrant scientists to produce the innovations that will solve many of the issues in this crisis. Many of the technological inventions that make us healthier contain a significant amount of immigrant contributions.

4. One of the stated reasons for the "temporary" ban is to protect American jobs. The preponderance of evidence from many decades of studying this issue is clear: immigrant workers do NOT, on average, take away jobs from natives. This is not the place to get into the details of the research on this, but I refer readers to this excellent non-partisan report. Low-skill immigrants tend to fill jobs in sectors in which natives don't work, and they bring different skills sets that often complement those of natives. Therefore, they don't substitute native labor. In fact, there's good evidence that immigrants often create jobs and other economic gains for natives.

At first, evidence showing that immigrants do not take away jobs or lower the wages of native workers seems counterintuitive. After all, if a number of native workers are competing for a job and we add more people to the job market, doesn't that make the labor market more challenging for everyone? The answer is yes if the size of the economy stays the same as more people enter. But that's not what actually happens. Immigrants help make the economy bigger. Why? Because immigrants as more than just "labor" when they come into a country. Whether low- or high-skill, they also function as new consumers, taxpayers, transmitters of new ideas, etc. So they enlarge the market -- after all, they need places to live, food, entertainment, etc. Thinking of immigrants as zero sum competitors in a labor market makes little sense. Yes, they compete for jobs, but they also make the market larger and more differentiated. This creates opportunities for natives and immigrants.

5. The US depends on immigrant teachers/professors and students to support the educational system. Universities in particular will suffer greatly, even if the "temporary" ban is lifted next year. This is the sector in which I work, so I know this from first-hand experience.

6. Bans on immigration result in long-run reductions in capital investment to and from the location that suffers the ban. Additional evidence on this can be found here and here. Right now, every country would love more capital investment, and immigrants are a vehicle to promote it.

7. "Temporary" restrictions on immigration can have significant long-term consequences because of the message they send to potential immigrants. They communicate that the US doesn't want them, and the most talented migrants will take their skills elsewhere.

We Need MORE Immigrants, Not Fewer

All of this points to a clear conclusion. Immigrants are part of the solution to our current health crisis and to the long-term health and growth of the economy. We shouldn't be banning them, even temporarily. We should be doing all we can to attract them and let them participate in the economy.