DOES THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION CYCLE HOLD THE SECRET TO BEATING THE MARKET?
Paul Adams
Helping clients Design and Build a Good Life - Founder/CEO/Podcaster/Entrepreneur
EPISODE SUMMARY
In this episode of Your Business, Your Wealth, Paul and Cory discuss an article they recently discovered on the influence that the presidential election cycle has on the marketplace. Specifically, they break down the fallacy that the market can be timed or beaten by analyzing data based on market performance in election years. They take a look at historical data of the S&P 500 Index to strengthen their argument and point out other flaws within this article. Finally, Paul provides some actionable advice and sound strategies to those looking to invest their money.
WHAT WAS COVERED
01:54 – Introducing today’s topic, Does the Presidential Election Cycle Hold the Secret to Beating the Market
02:34 – This Week In Planning
05:28 – The Gell-Mann Effect, revisited
16:17 – Cory points out a huge flaw in the article from This Week In Planning
21:50 – Paul takes the audience through the history of the S&P 500 from 1980 to 2000
23:31 – Paul interrupts the podcast to provide the audience with a special offer
24:34 – Final thoughts on ‘Final Thoughts’
28:02 – Paul provides some actionable advice for the audience
30:54 – Cory reads this week’s featured review
TWEETABLES
He (Marshall Nickles, author of the article) says, ‘If you examine the returns of the S&P 500 for each of the twenty-three election years since 1928, you’ll see that only four of them it was negative.’
And the actual rate of return of the S&P 500 over that same twenty-year period of time is not 8.1% as the strategy said it would be if you did their really cool thing of moving in and out and getting all these really high double digit rates of return, just not all the time. Instead the S&P 500, if left alone, would have been 16.38%.
Nobody wants to have the conversation that none of these active managers, none of these strategies, can consistently or predictably been proven to work, including this one in an academic journal.
To listen to the full episode, and read show notes, which includes a FREE PDF of the transcription, visit: https://sfgwa.com/ep170.