Does our shared cultural vision of the future affect our decisions?

I am really bored and disappointed with LinkedIn posts today. Same old same old. So I'm going to put forward a theory I have been working on and see if any interesting conversation happens.

Let's start with the premise that a culture/civilization/society/community has 'shared culture values'. Obviously we can't know the future, but we do think about it, and worry about it, and plan for it. Our vision of the future reflects our shared cultural values. The decisions that we make can change things. Our shared cultural vision informs how we believe our actions are righteous, or at least conform to acceptable norms or avoid risks.

I postulate that the main factor for decision making that might cause a change to the status quo is the status quo. The way that the future is envisioned is based on the culture and traditions of the time.

To test this, let's look at how shared cultural vision, and therefore the way decisions that affect the future are framed. I looked at shared cultural vision in Europe and Britain in the Middle Ages. Six hundred years ago, change happened very slowly. The depth of individual artisan's craft or individual farmer's knowledge or scholar's capacity are really quiet deep. Apprenticeships ensured that the next weaver or miller or baker did things exactly the same as the last. Consider that most people knew how to do most of the things that were necessary for life and participation in the economy of being good at what you did and following the rules.

Once the waves of Plague had finished rolling across Europe, the reliance on tradition and religion to explain the way the world works and inform future vision started to give way to science. Once the exploration and colonisation period got into full swing, then the visions of the future became much more about what new things might be discovered, new lands acquired, and new fortunes made.

The industrial revolution, along with all that westward expansion reframed the expectations of the future to be about progress, mostly technological advancement. And in the 1900's we have expected some dearly held traditions to continue, more scientific discoveries to benefit our health and understanding, continuous progress of ever better, cheaper, more plentiful, more powerful technologies, and continuous economic growth, inclusion, advancement and modernity. Isn't that really what the UN Sustainable Development Goals are about? We expect that going forward, all things will get better for all people through growth?

I am going to get out my crystal ball, and make a prediction about the next shift in how we view the future.

The limits to growth are becoming obvious. The ramifications of global warming are shocking us, and the first wave of the pandemic woke us up to a new vision of the future. What does it look like? I propose that the ideas we have been hearing from young people and thought leaders about simplicity, localisation, building communities with circular economies, and regenerating natural, agricultural, marine and urban ecosystems are going to lead to the realisation that transition is what we can expect in our future.

We are coming to realise that the stories we have been telling ourselves about our technological progress, continuous growth, modernity and tolerance have obscured realities of false narratives and flawed assumptions. From here, realisation will struggle with reaction. The new discovery that shifts shared cultural values is sobriety. From 2020 we start to realise that the future is not going to be like the past, we will be Abel to see that growth is over. We will come to expect science to define constraints and realities, and our technology will allow us to fit into constraints because we value what is worthwhile. As we adapt to these transitions we will start to build up traditions and customs that honour wisdom and sobriety and rationality.

By 2100 when people speak of the future, they will never be heard to say "If we want to save the planet...". It will not make any sense to them to put the "if" or the "want" in there. They will expect that what the science makes clear will be accomplished, not by waiting for new technologies or bold policies or for the market to respond, but rather buy effort and adaptation. Our species has two superpowers of survival. The first is the ability to teach what works to the next generation, and the second is the ability to adapt to new circumstances.

*This article is the result of my own reading of history, contemplation and critical thinking, and does not necessarily reflect the views of my employer, my academic field or my people. But it might some day.

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