Does a Hot Summer Means a Cold Winter with Extra High Energy Consumption?

Since June and July 2022, heat waves are affecting parts of Europe, causing heat-related deaths, wildfires and evacuations. +47.0?°C was the highest temperature in Europe, recorded in Pinhao,?Portugal, on 14 July.

The?2022 heat wave in India and Pakistan?has resulted in the hottest March in India since 1901. The hot season arrived early this year and extended into April, and affected a large part of India's northwest and Pakistan with a drought, with rainfall being only a quarter to a third of normal.

But does an extremely hot summer means a cold winter and extra high energy consumption??

Examining the winter temperatures in December - February versus the previous summer's temperatures in June - August) in Syracuse, NY, no significant correlation between the two sets of data has been found, therefore the summer temperatures cannot really be soundly used as predictors for how cold or warm the upcoming winter will be.

The coefficient?of determination R2, presented in the picture below, is only R2=0.04, indicating no statistical correlation between variables. The trend line in picture in orange on the graph below is more flat than it is steep, indicating that it is difficult to make a statement about a well-defined relationship between summer and winter temperatures.

Meteorologists have done extensive studies to test this theory, and have found that summer weather is in no way a predictor of winter weather: a hot summer could be followed up by a milder winter just as readily as a colder winter. The final conclusion is that: "the only predictable aspect of weather is its unpredictability".

More to read: