Does the Free to Play model still make sense for indie games in 2024?
Mauricio Alegretti
Game Industry Executive | Chief Technical Officer (CTO) at Ortiz Gaming | Founder and Investor at Industria de Jogos | Advisor at Guidepoint | Former Microsoft Xbox MVP | Game Development | Business Development
( vers?o em português deste artigo disponível aqui )
Greetings, game developers and enthusiasts!
In recent months, I've been quite surprised by the meteoric success of the game Balatro, which sold 1 million copies in less than a month after its launch on Steam. It has also done exceptionally well on consoles and still has potential since it hasn't officially arrived on mobile devices yet.
As always in cases like this, I like to delve a bit into the story behind the game, its production, and the launch strategies used. Besides being a great game, Balatro had a fascinating production cycle. It was created by a solo developer who did everything except the music and publishing efforts. Interestingly, this developer chose to remain anonymous, not revealing his real name even in the game credits, and went by the pseudonym LocalThunk. The few known details are that he is Canadian, a self-declared game development enthusiast, and a regular on Reddit, where he documented much of the development process in real-time.
I strongly recommend reading an interview LocalThunk gave to GamesRadar back in February 2024, shortly after the game's release, as well as the insightful "AMA - Ask Me Anything " he conducted on Reddit. Particularly striking was the creator's admission that he never expected the game's success and that his motivation was simply to create a great game that he and his friends would enjoy.
In a challenging year like 2024, when companies of all sizes are announcing mass layoffs and even shutting down, it's refreshing to see a success story like this. The game is sold in a premium model, costing around $15 on Steam and other stores, with variations depending on sales. Given the number of copies sold, it's safe to assume that LocalThunk must be quite happy financially at the moment ??.
Now, let's cut to another interview I saw a few days ago, this one in video format, with the great Christian Lykawka for the Control Break program on YouTube. Christian is one of the most veteran game developers in Brazil, with a remarkable story of resilience and persistence in the market. His current company, Rockhead Games, created a strong intellectual property called Starlit Adventures , which includes a series of excellent games such as Starlit Kart, Starlit on Wheels, Starlit Archery, and the original Starlit Adventures.
During the interview, they discussed frankly the challenges of the free-to-play model used by Rockhead in their series titles. There was a high-level debate on how, despite the success they achieved in their specific case, it's a very difficult model to monetize efficiently. For those unfamiliar, the Free to Play (F2P) model allows players to access games for free while developers generate revenue through in-app purchases, advertising, and other strategies.
This week, while I was already reflecting on this topic, a great friend and fellow game developer called me to discuss monetization models for a title he is planning. This led me to take the liberty of inviting you, my dear and esteemed readers, to join this debate as well.
In my view, the Free to Play model, which was so popular in the early days of app stores and still generates a mountain of money for major publishers, is no longer viable for indie developers in 2024 for launching new games.
In 2011, I was deeply involved with this model at the studio I co-founded, Smyowl, and I vividly remember the euphoria of that time when investors made user conversion calculations that made their eyes sparkle with dollar signs. It was common to hear business plans based on "partnering with a major digital influencer on Facebook or YouTube, who has millions of followers," leading to the fateful phrase, "if one in ten followers downloads the game, and x of them buy a golden coin, we'll be billionaires!!!".
I'm sure many readers who have or had game studios can relate to this and have received various siren calls from all kinds of (sub) celebrities. The reality is that, despite several examples of successful games following this model, the vast majority of results were nothing more than an illusion.
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Looking at today's landscape, 13 years later, I see an F2P game market that is absolutely more competitive, with major publishers heavily investing in marketing and development. Keeping players engaged and motivated to spend money is much harder, requiring constant updates and new content. Additionally, there is the game design challenge where F2P games will be viewed negatively if players feel forced to spend money to progress (pay-to-win).
I'm not condemning the model (and who am I to do so), but my point of view is that all these difficulties make it practically unviable for indie studios today, especially for solo developers. It doesn't help that developers of this profile tend to pour even more of their heart into their games, as LocalThunk did with Balatro, and will probably hesitate to add more aggressive monetization mechanisms. I have no doubt that this will result in a better and more enjoyable gaming experience, which, in the end, will bring almost no financial return.
In this internal debate and later with my friend, I tried hard to find a good example of an indie game that achieved global success in recent years using the F2P model and couldn't. Whereas in the low-cost premium model, besides the already mentioned Balatro, several others came to mind, such as Vampire Survivors, Stardew Valley, Sea of Stars, and Slay the Spire.
My conclusion is that, despite its challenges (like all models), and that success and financial return are never guaranteed, charging a fixed price for a premium experience is still the least painful alternative for indie games in 2024.
But, as I said before, I would love to turn this article into a debate - do you think Free to Play is still a valid model? What are the good (and bad) examples you would like to share?
I look forward to your comments, and regardless of the model you choose, I wish you much success in all the game projects you launch in the future.
All the best, and see you next week!
Reference links:
Interview with Christian Lykawka on Control Break ( in portuguese )
Partner at Animorf, CEO/Director at Animuz , Character Artist, Animation and Art Director, teacher and speaker.
5 个月It is a very important question indeed my friend. We'll be releasing our first mobile game next week on App store, and the second one around july, (hope you can test them and tell us what you think). This question is the "one milion (bilion) dolars question" that resonates around the market right now. My view so far has been the one that what makes a success of a title is still the community building. Belatro is an example of it. LocalThunk built the hype around his trajectory in reditt, creating the expectation for the release. it seems to me that everything in this industry, and others as well (as crypto and gamestop for example) is all about building a narrative and creating an active community around it. Of course, it can always backfire as your delivery may not attend to the expectations as we could see in CyberPunk... But then, the preorder cash was already made and that was what mattered to the executives. So, all in all, it's all a matter of creating momentum and gathering the audience around it rather than if it's paid or free. I'm studying the best ways to do that in my IP's and test the best system to build narrative and community organically. I'm probably creating a kickstarter campaign after the launch...