Does the falling fertility rate usher in truly good news for the environment?

New research published in The Lancet by the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation shows that the global fertility rate has nearly halved to 2.4 in 2017 (with respect to the 1950 baseline of 4.7); the research projects that it will fall below 1.7 by 2100. The same research indicates a sharp decline of ~60% in India’s fertility rate to 2.14 in 2017 (with respect to the 1950 baseline of 5.6); the research projects that it will fall to 1.29 by 2100.

If the fertility rate falls below ~2.1, then the size of the population starts shrinking. The global population is expected to peak at 9.7 billion around 2064, and then start declining to 8.8 billion by 2100. India’s population will peak at 1.6 billion around 2048 and then shrink to 1.09 billion by the end of the century. India will still be the most populous country in 2100.

This decline in the fertility rate will be driven by rising levels of education (in particular for girls and young women), access to improvements in reproductive healthcare, and the expansion in women’s political, social, and economic empowerment. The Drawdown Review 2020 by Project Drawdown estimates that the overall impact of health and education will be ~85.4 GtCO2e of reduced/sequestered carbon between 2020-2050.

Whilst The Lancet publication apparently ushers in great news for the environment, this research should not be viewed in a silo; instead, it should be considered as a changing phenomenon within the larger narrative of the negative consequences of an inverted age structure, the global recognition of the challenges around racism, migration, and changing world order.  

Changing demographics have already started effecting regional dynamics. For example, East Asia and Europe will face further demographic stagnation and even contraction; and Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia will face the prospects of significant increases in population. Moreover, the age distribution across countries is already surprisingly uneven: many countries in Africa have a very young population, which places stress on funding schools and creating more jobs for new job seekers; by contrast, much of Western Europe and parts of Asia have an elderly population, increasing the burden on the working population to support healthcare and caregiving for the old and ailing; interestingly, the US has a relatively balanced work-age distribution, in part because of immigration.

Climate change and climate action are inextricably tied to the changing global demographic and geopolitics – it will be interesting to see how these new population projections feed into climate models and influence our understanding of what the future might hold for us.

References:

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30677-2/fulltext

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53409521

https://theprint.in/theprint-essential/why-indias-population-could-shrink-to-109-crore-by-2100-and-what-it-could-lead-to/468527/

The Drawdown Review 2020 by Project Drawdown

The World: A Brief Introduction by Richard Haass