Does everything turn out completely different?

The narrative in strategic thinking.

Hardly any newspaper commentary, virtually no magazine article and only a few online columns can currently do without the term "narrative". Within a very short time it has brought the word - at least my feeling - to the top of the hit list of the most used words.

In the past it used to be called: the "spin" or - even earlier - the "twist" of a story. Today it is now the narrative. And it says that you can evaluate every story in one way or another. The narrative provides the framework for this.

This narrative also exists in thinking: we know this from the so-called "priming", which is in turn close to prejudice. But we also know it in private: What worries us massively one day, leaves us untouched the next day, without the facts having changed. After all, strategic-conceptual evaluations are also subject to such narratives.

And as the year 2020 is slowly coming to an end, I would like to slightly look back and a little bit forward.

In the past few months, we have learned - once again - that no one is immune to surprises. As well as we are preparing ourselves now: The chance of a new pandemic is low. It is much more likely that next year everything will be thrown overboard again for another reason.

Anyone thinking about the future, especially from a German perspective, could become really nervous or even depressed. Just a few suggestions:

• The export world champion is looking at a renationalizing world.
• The automotive world champion is looking into an era of electromobility in which a newcomer from California has outstripped him in terms of performance and innovation.
• The stability world champion is looking at an election of which he has little idea who could emerge from it as the successor to long-term German Chancellor Merkel.
• The Reflector is looking at a country in which one part of the population is calling for restrictive anti-Corona measures and the other part of the same population already has no understanding for the current measures and simply wants to celebrate again.
• The former paragon of equilibrium looks at a state budget whose national debt has been increased by 20 percentage points or a quarter of the gross domestic product within a very short time.
• The man oriented towards the Western world looks at - to put it mildly - strained transatlantic relations and a disintegration of part of Europe that threatens to break apart without a treaty thanks to Brexite.

Each analysis in itself is certainly not wrong, in any case legitimate. Little reason to celebrate the New Year. But: Couldn't it be completely different?

As far as Covid is concerned, it looks as if the doctors working in therapy have taken the opportunity to improve the treatment of the infection. Based on the WHO figures, the mortality rate is in the per mille range. And there are many indications that the vaccine may come onto the market in the first half of 2021. Perhaps then we will be able to appreciate much more what we experienced as an annoying daily routine before March 2020. We know this from convalescence phases following illness: The upturn in the recovery phase is already making some people euphoric.

With a bit of luck and just before the end of the day, the Brexite can lead to a regulated break-up with a subsequent new partnership.

The result of the American presidential election can be reflected, among other things, in the world's return to a sense of togetherness, to communication, to contracts and their observance.

Car nation Germany can still hope that it has turned the corner late, but not too late, and that it will retain its leading role in electromobility.

Perhaps everything will get another turn after all. A better spin. A positive narrative. Let's hope for the best.