Does anyone really understand HS2?
High Speed 2 is the rail line under construction to better connect the North of England to London. It has been in the news again recently, but I have long struggled to make any sense of it. Listening to the ex-Chief Economist of the Bank of England on Channel 4 News last night made me think - does anyone really understand HS2?
1.???? How can the business case still be justified?
The original project budget was an astronomical at ￡37.5bn. In entirely predictable UK Public Sector fashion, it is now forecast to cost double that - ￡70bn. At 2019 prices. The final cost will be well over ￡120bn! No wonder politicians are having second thoughts!
The Covid pandemic accelerated the ability of UK office workers to work productively from anywhere. According to some forecasts, 75% of business meetings will already happen via video ( Zoom or similar) by 2024. The predicted demand for rail travel must have vastly reduced since HS2 was planned.
2.???? Why does it have to be so fast?
UK cities are close together and I believe the average train journey times are already faster than any other major country in Western Europe. Although there is no doubt our trains are much less reliable.
In 2012, the National Audit Office reported that, for HS1, ‘the ￡7bn economic value of quicker journeys will be less than the total cost to taxpayers’. The same must apply to HS2. A lot of subsequent justification has been that ‘we need more rail capacity’ – in which case, why didn’t we build new lines next to existing ones, and save a tonne of money?
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And now it seems the journey times will actually be slower than existing rail, as the trains will not arrive in central London any time soon!
3.???? Why does it help the ‘levelling up’ agenda?
The idea of ‘levelling up’ is to improve living standards in the North of England, to match the investments that have typically been made in the South. HS2 just makes it quicker to get from North to South and vice versa. It seemingly does little to improve the economic activity within a region, other than perhaps to encourage some associated inward investment.
4.???? How can we justify the environmental impact?
The impact of HS2 on the countryside and people’s lives is already shocking. The waste during construction is incredible. I believe the UK government’s own calculations for HS2 suggest its total carbon emissions (crucially including construction) could exceed all potential savings over the predicted 120-year lifetime of the line.
Other than a few thousand construction jobs being created, how can we justify spending so much money on this trainline?
Wouldn’t more economic value and net-zero benefits be unlocked by spending ￡120bn of economic stimulus on education, research, health, social care, green energy, etc? And on improving regional public transport (for example East West Rail, Northern Power House Rail, shared mobility schemes) and digital infrastructure across the UK.
Growth Advisor
1 年It's vanity "me too" project - just because the Germans, Japanese, French, Italians, Spanish and even Moroccans and Indonesians have it, then so should we. Just consider the Chinese built 40000km of high speed track in just 10 years but with compulsory land grab and enough debt to cripple the UK national debt for the next 10000 years. The UK is a small country, London to Leeds or Manchester a mere 300km and 2 and a bit hours in a brand new Hitachi AT300 is perfectly adequate - what really is the point of spending another ￡40+ Billion over the next 50 years to gain an extra 15-20 minutes time saved - and by the time the trains are running, high speed rail will be obsolete or climate change will have forced us all to emigrate to Mars anyways.
Technical Manager at McArthur BDC
1 年Great points well made John. With crumbling schools and hospitals it’s difficult to understand how anyone can justify this vanity project. Lord Berkeley has some really interesting ideas on utilising the works that have already been undertaken to ensure all is not wasted.
Experienced Reseller Commercial Leader
1 年I agree with you John. The current Birmingham to London route is about 75 mins straight into Euston. I have not had to use that line for a long time but there used to be three trains an hour from about 5 am. At peak times very busy, off peak very quite. Not sure a new line delivers much benefit for that leg
Best option is to reverse it - start building from Leeds downwards until they run out of money. There's zero benefit in funnelling more people into London; we need other centres of excellence for finance and tech. around the country. The current model is a shambles. To stop outside central London means losing the 20 minutes gained from high speed into the capital. The East Midlands branch would end in the middle of nowhere, so not get used. Any government needs to save face and refocus the project as a benefit for the north, not just to get more people into London.