Dodgy Pollsters.

This makes up a trio of pieces I have written this year on the importance of accurate political polling and keeping pollsters like David Farrar and his business partner, Jordan Williams honest.?

The Research Association of New Zealand (RANZ), who implement the New Zealand Political Polling Codes of Conduct, finally exposed Curia Market Research and The Taxpayers’ Union-Curia polls to scrutiny. Farrar resigned. Both are joined at the hip and both are long term business partners. ?

Farrar wrote a 4700-word resignation letter (sigh) that stated he was sick and tired of the number of complaints that were being made and upheld by RANZ against Curia Market Research. To quote, “I can’t even count up how many complaints there have been” and, that the complaints process had been “weaponised” against him. So sad. ?

In a close election period David Farrar from Curia Market Research built a system where he had between 3.5 and 9 per cent to play with due to his lack of accountability for two crucial areas, the undecideds and the don’t know’s. All pollsters take a margin of error of around 3.5 per cent but what The Taxpayers’ Union-Curia pollsters do is omit the percentages of the undecideds and don’t know’s which can increase the margin of error to as high as 9 per cent. Why? Well, it’s questions like that David Farrar refuses to answer. ?

Last year Nicole Satherley (Honorary Academic in Psychology, University of Auckland); Lara M Greaves (Associate Professor, University of Wellington) and Andrew A Sporle (Honorary Associate Professor, University of Auckland) released ‘Understanding Public Opinion Polling in Aotearoa New Zealand’, a comprehensive guide on how to read a political poll.??

They recommended looking for the following features of a public opinion poll, and reporting information about each of them:?

1. the target population and sample size?

2. the poll commissioner and polling company?

3. the sampling method?

4. the margin of error?

5. weighting adjustments?

6. the question wording?

7. the percentage of don’t know’s or undecideds, and?

8. the time the poll was conducted.

The Taxpayers’ Union-Curia political polls are some of the most commonly used polls by our media in their usual “copy and paste” way.? Polls like the August 7, 2024 one claiming 62 per cent of respondents wanted Darlene Tana ousted by The Greens using the waka-jumping law. That has nothing to do with The Green Party, that’s all about attacking Darlene Tana and The Greens.? Now, Farrar that is weaponisation by you as usual.?

The Taxpayers’ Union was co-founded by Farrar and ACT supporter Jordan Williams with ex ACT and National Party members on its board. Farrar left in 2023 but is still active with Williams as they co-release these polls.?

Last year The Taxpayers’ Union had an income of $2.8 million that Williams told journalist Guyon Espinor had come solely through donations, but would not be transparent about who the donors are. Some of The Taxpayers’ Union’s clientele include alcohol, tobacco, sugar and fast-food companies. British American Tobacco (BAT) are open about the fact they are regular donors to The Taxpayers’ Union.

In May of this year, Jordan Williams defended sending a Taxpayers’ Union staff member to Panama to oppose the World Health Organisation’s Framework Convention on Tobacco Control. That would have been a very expensive trip.?

Former chairperson and board member of The Taxpayers’ Union is Smokefree Minister, Casey Costello, herself making headlines this week on the politically charged tobacco policy document that she denies writing or knowing how it wound up in her office. Last week a leaked tobacco lobbying plan from 2017 showed Phillip Morris NZ was targeting NZ First to get Heated Tobacco Products (HTP’s) accepted. On July 18, 2024 Casey Costello, also our Associate Health Minister, cut the excise tax on HTP’s by 50 per cent, effective from July 1, 2024, a direct $216 million taxpayer gift to Phillip Morris.?

These are not coincidences and they all involve people associated with The Taxpayers’ Union who commission the Curia Market Research political polls.?

Last month Kathy Frankovic from The World Association for Public Opinion Research (WAPOR) did a presentation in Seoul called, “Defending Polling, Why It Is Necessary and How Can We Protect the Freedom To Poll” stating there are 22 countries with no election polls at all. That is the other extreme as a lot of our pollsters can be balanced and trusted.

However, David Farrar is going to continue releasing his polls with a self-governing complaints process that has three stages:?

1. Have a conversation with him directly, and if you are still unhappy;
2. Complain directly to Curia, and if that doesn’t solve things;
3. A peer review will be conducted by an independent (and paid for) expert in polling.

This will be all monitored and controlled by Farrar.

Farrar does not like the architecture of his questions scrutinised as he claims it is a very subjective process. And Williams, who despite stating The Taxpayers’ Union is all about transparency, remains secretive about their donors and members.?

This is an untrustworthy duo behind The Taxpayers’ Union-Curia political polls that make headlines and influences voters. With RANZ no longer monitoring their codes and standards, who’s going to keep these pollsters honest now?

Now the question is, will the lazy subservient media continue to copy and paste Farrar and Williams propaganda.?

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John Tamihere is Chief Executive of West Auckland Urban Māori organisation Te Whānau o Waipareira and the Whānau Ora Commissioning Agency