Do you remember these massive market movements?

Commodity markets are known for their volatility, with prices often reacting sharply to geopolitical events, natural disasters, and shifts in supply and demand. Recent movements in various markets have reminded us how quickly prices can change in response to external shocks. In this article, we examine some of the most significant price swings in commodity history - instances where markets experienced rapid, unexpected shifts due to extraordinary circumstances.

This list is not ranked in any particular order and does not follow specific selection criteria. Instead, it represents key events that brokers and analysts within our network recall as being particularly impactful. While some are single-day price moves, others cover short periods of heightened volatility that had lasting effects on their respective markets.

Leave a comment on this post with your most memorable markets movements!

UKA Price Surge Following Policy Shift Discussion (January 2025)

Earlier this year, the UK Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) experienced a sharp price increase with the UKA Dec 25 contract seeing a 15% rise in a single day following reports that the UK government was considering aligning its carbon market with the European Union’s ETS. The prospect of linking the two schemes sparked immediate market reaction, as traders anticipated structural changes that could drive demand for UK Allowances (UKAs).

A key factor behind the price jump was the expectation that a linkage would require the introduction of an adjustment mechanism similar to the EU Allowance (EUA) system. This would help prevent an oversupply of carbon credits, thereby supporting higher prices.. While no official policy changes had been confirmed at the time, the market’s rapid response highlighted the sensitivity of carbon prices to regulatory developments.

Chart showing the spike in price of UKAs

Nickel Price Surge and Market Suspension (March 2022)

In March 2022, nickel prices saw an unprecedented spike due to supply concerns linked to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Nickel, a critical metal for stainless steel and electric vehicle batteries, surged by over 270% from $27,080 per tonne to $50,000 per tonne by the close of trading on 7 March. The following day, the price briefly hit $101,365 per tonne—doubling in just five hours.

This rapid increase prompted the London Metal Exchange (LME) to suspend nickel trading and cancel transactions, citing disorderly market conditions. This event led to intense debate over the role of exchanges in managing extreme price volatility. The incident also underscored the risks of concentrated short positions, as some market participants were forced into covering trades at unsustainable price levels.

Oil Prices Rebound on Supply Expectations (April 2020)

On 2 April 2020, Brent crude oil prices rose sharply, climbing above $30 per barrel following optimism that Saudi Arabia and Russia could reach an agreement to end their price war based of a tweet from Trump. This surge followed a period of extreme volatility, where oil prices had plummeted due to a combination of oversupply and a global demand collapse driven by the COVID-19 pandemic.

While no immediate resolution had been reached at the time of the price spike, market participants anticipated that production cuts would be implemented to stabilize the oil market. Indeed, on 12 April, OPEC+ agreed to reduce output by 9.7 million barrels per day, marking one of the largest coordinated production cuts in history.

The Baltic Dry Index Collapse (May–December 2008)

The Baltic Dry Index (BDI), a key benchmark for dry bulk shipping rates, experienced one of the most dramatic declines in its history during the 2008 global financial crisis. After reaching nearly 12,000 points in June 2008, the index fell by 93% over the next seven months, bottoming out at 663 points on December 5th. Put another way, this saw the Capesize basket rate fall from over $230,000/day to below $3,000 by December.

Several factors contributed to this collapse. The global financial crisis severely restricted credit availability, making it difficult for companies to finance trade and shipping activities. Additionally, a sharp downturn in Chinese demand for raw materials, previously a major driver of bulk shipping rates, exacerbated the decline. Structural issues in the shipping industry also played a role, as an oversupply of vessels led to excess capacity, further pressuring rates.

The dramatic drop in BDI in the last 6 months of 2008

Cyclone Debbie Disrupts Coal Markets (April 2017)

In April 2017, Cyclone Debbie struck Queensland, Australia, a key region responsible for more than half of the world’s seaborne coking coal supply. The storm caused extensive damage to mining operations and railway infrastructure, particularly the Goonyella line, which is crucial for transporting coal to export terminals.

As a result of these disruptions, coking coal prices surged and continued to climb in the following weeks, peaking at $314 per tonne by 17 April. The supply shortage forced major importers, including China, to seek alternative sources, leading to increased US coal shipments to the region. This event underscored the vulnerability of commodity markets to extreme weather and infrastructure disruptions.

Iron Ore Prices Surge Following Vale Dam Collapse (January - February 2019)

In early 2019, iron ore prices rose sharply following the collapse of a tailings dam at a Vale mine in Brazil. The disaster, which led to significant fatalities, prompted the temporary suspension of several mining operations. Given Brazil’s role as one of the world’s largest iron ore exporters, this supply shock triggered an increase from $75.40/t on the 25th January to $94.20/t by the 8th Feb 2019.

Concerns over long-term supply constraints and regulatory tightening on mine safety further supported prices in the months following the incident. This event highlighted how disruptions in key producing regions can have lasting impacts on global commodity markets.

Flash Crash of 2010: Market Turbulence in Minutes (6 May 2010)

While not directly tied to commodities, the Flash Crash of 2010 warrants mention due to its dramatic impact on financial markets. The event was triggered by trading in e-minis, futures contracts that track the S&P 500 index.

On May 6, in minutes the Dow Jones index lost 9% of value, with hundreds of billions of dollars being cut from major companies like Proctor & Gamble and General Electric. The crash was later linked to high-frequency trading and alleged market manipulation involving “layering” strategies, where large trade orders were placed and then rapidly cancelled to create misleading market signals. In response, regulators intensified scrutiny of trading practices and introduced safeguards to prevent similar disruptions in the future.

Fertilizer Market Volatility Following Ukraine Conflict (March 2022)

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in early 2022 had significant repercussions for global fertilizer markets, given that Russia’s status is a major exporter of urea and ammonia.? By spring 2022, prices had risen for all five key fertilizers (MOP-potassium chloride, phosphate rock, DAP, urea, and TSP). Bloomberg’s Green Markets Weekly North America Fertilizer Price Index reached an all-time high of 1,270.4 on March 25, surging past the former record of 932.27 set in 2008. Sanctions on Russia and Belarus disrupted fertilizer trade, prompting importers like Brazil to seek alternative suppliers, while countries such as Canada and Morocco expanded production. The crisis underscored the interconnectedness of geopolitical events and global agricultural markets, reinforcing the need for diversified supply strategies.

Tanker Market Soars as Floating Storage Demand Rises (March 2020)

During the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic, a global oversupply of crude oil pushed storage capacity to its limits. With onshore storage facilities near capacity, oil producers turned to floating storage, significantly increasing demand for large crude carriers (VLCCs).

As a result, tanker rates skyrocketed, with VLCC time charter equivalent exceeding $260,000 per day at the peak of the crisis. However, as production cuts took effect and demand rebounded, freight rates eventually declined. This period highlighted the role of tanker markets in managing global oil supply imbalances.

Tanker rates rise during as warehousing space runs out

Conclusion

These events illustrate the complex and often unpredictable nature of commodity markets. Whether driven by policy changes, supply disruptions, financial crises, or geopolitical tensions, extreme price movements can have far-reaching consequences for traders, industries, and economies. As market participants continue to navigate volatility, risk management and strategic planning remain essential tools in adapting to these rapid changes.

Edited by: Jessica Free , Lena Liu

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