Do You Remember BRAC?

I have begun advising clients that with the new administration, there is considerable risk that we will address cuts to federal programs far beyond defense, which will look and feel like the BRAC environment of the 1990s and early 2000s.

BRAC stands for Base Realignment and Closure.

It was a strategic initiative by Congress to eliminate excess defense capacity being carried on the books. Bases, posts, air wings, tank production, and much more were far beyond what was needed in a post-Cold War environment. The government recognized that paying for?infrastructure?that was no longer needed was costing far too much.

The plan to eliminate excess capacity made great sense to those with green eyeshades who spend their time counting, saving, or stretching federal dollars. Teams were formed, evaluations were drawn up, assessments by greybeards confirmed decisions, and lists were soon published.?

“Yes, we will close the following bases, yards, barracks, or posts,” declared the BRAC Commission.?

Congress had another reaction, “Not in my backyard.” Have you heard this phrase or its now popular acronym, NIMBY?

Today, with the return of the lame-duck Congress, both chambers are wrestling with how far to push the current CR. Should we tie a bow on FY25 now while a democratic Senate can have an imprint? Should we look at this anew after the new Congress forms in January??

Fast on its heels is the development of an FY26 budget.

DoD already has one prepared. If you approach your customer today to talk about FY26, it’s out of their hands. Traditionally, this budget proposal passes to Congress in February as a statement of presidential priorities. The new administration will surely delay the FY26 budget’s movement to Congress for one reason—to make big cuts.

If you are not feeling the need to get very defensive about your programs and your contributions to?national defense, you need to pop your head up like a prairie dog. Don’t know what a prairie dog is? I learned this one from a Chief Warrant Officer a long time ago. Prairie dogs pop up out of their holes in the ground, stretching their necks and surveying the landscape for safety before leaving their holes in search of food. If you don’t see the threat of cuts, you need to survey more carefully.

What I don’t expect is an elaborate decision process with layers of review and reclama like we saw with BRAC. The first pass at?budget?cuts will be swift and sharp. Some will be caught completely off guard.

National security was never seriously discussed during this presidential election.

The people spoke quite clearly that domestic issues matter more today. “Don’t tell me about the Suez Canal, just bring down the cost of food and give me my shot at the American dream, now.”?

Sadly, we will re-learn a serious lesson that readiness requires ongoing and serious investment. Our forces have been hollowed and rebuilt before. We are in a hollow phase right now that has not been fully acknowledged, and we are about to double down on it.

The tricky thing about controlling inflation is that prices rarely, if ever, go down.

They generally can stop going up when using economic tools of control, but loss of demand is the only thing that changes the prices downward.?

I’m not an economist. However, I am an expert in national defense and public policy. I’m a trained political scientist. I watch these things with a different perspective than that of a CEO. My information sources are numerous and varied.

My counsel is to prepare to play?defense?at least as well as you are playing offense. The budget knife is nigh.?

Your customer and your world will look and feel much different by June of 2025.?

Are you ready??

Think your Member of Congress will say NIMBY for you? What makes you think that?

The executive branch has the authority to do this. Cuts can be initiated swiftly without congressional permission. Once the knife is in, it might take years in the ICU to recover.?

The incoming executive?demonstrates Congress can be brought to heel. Consider this one exchange.

“How much do you think we can rip out of this wasted, $6.5 trillion Harris-Biden budget?” Howard Lutnick, a Wall Street CEO and Trump’s transition team co-chair, asked Elon Musk on October 27th.

Musk’s response, “at least $2 trillion.” ?

Some laugh at that number, a 30-plus percent cut to federal spending. Well, what would a 5% cut feel like to you??

Do you remember Sequestration in 2011?

It was to be a $50 billion dollar cut across the board, roughly 9% of defense at the time. It was considered so grievous that it never fully materialized as Congress carved up the sequester agreement like Swiss cheese riddled with exceptions that prevented the full scope from taking effect. Sequestration still triggered a contraction of the defense industrial base by 30% over the ensuing years.

It almost sounds quaint that Congress slowed those cuts down.

I’m an observer. What do you see?

Are You Ready to Capture More Government Business in 2025?

Join me and Kate Robb for an expert-led, two-hour intensive workshop focused on navigating the nuanced dynamics of government interactions and maximizing your business opportunities in the new year.

This workshop is for professionals who are:

• Responsible for government business development or contracting
• Facing budget challenges and uncertain travel budgets in 2025
• Ready to refresh their approach and boost their success with government clients
• Looking to build confidence in their presentation and communication styles
• Committed to making 2025 a record year for government sales

Where: Capitol Hill Club, Washington, D.C.

When: January 17th, 11AM - 1PM Eastern

Attend in person or virtually. Click on the graphic below to register and to learn more.