Do you really know what to expect from your Forex Currency Trading?

Good statistical analysis is required in order to trust a FX trading methodology. Without trust there can be no confidence and without confidence there is no consistency.  In order to be an effective and efficient currency trader with consistent positive results a trader must abandon all emotional attachments to a trade and have the courage and patience to follow a disciplined trading plan that has been analyzed to prove its worth.

All nicely said but how is it done?

The following is an approach I use to determine whether or not a particular methodology, in this case my “Zebra EOD Hunt”, can or has the potential to deliver expected consistent results. This is a summary of the Data / Chart Analysis of 100 48ZA alerts that were posted on the Facebook page “Forex Pips-Ville” going back to 2012. 100 alerts were identified to create a minimum historical statistical data base. Please take note that only the "Minimum Target Gain", as defined by the trading plan, is being identified for the analysis. In reality many more pips could have been achieved with good monitoring and stop loss management.

(For additional details review posts in Forex Pips-Ville or search @FXpipstrading in Facebook.)

Above is Chart 11 of 11 charts showing 10 confirmed 48ZA's between March 2013 and October 2012, the most recent being trade #91 and going back to trade #100. 9 of 10 confirmed trades hit the minimum target. The loss at trade #92 was the result of being stopped out based on strict adherence to the trading rule parameters imposed on the trade even though the 48ZA alert did identify the down trend that followed. Keep in mind that alternative initial entry parameters and follow up trades (scaling in) are not addressed in this most basic EOD analysis appro

Above is Chart 10 of 11 charts showing 8 confirmed 48ZA's between November 2013 and April 2013, the most recent being trade #83 and going back to trade #90. 7 of 8 confirmed trades hit the minimum target. Again, the loss at trade #88 was a result of the trading rule parameters imposed on the trade even though the alert did identify the down trend that followed.

Above is Chart 9 of 11 charts showing 8 confirmed 48ZA's between July 2013 and December 2014, the most recent being #75 and going back to #82. 7 of 8 hit minimum target. The one loss was a stop out at trade #77 due to the trading rule parameters imposed on the trade even though the alert did identify the down trend that followed.

At this point I’ll skip to Chart 7 of 11 (below) to show 2 occasions where a trade was stopped out. However, notice that the minimum target (go to Forex Pips-Ville Group for details) could and would have been met if alternate rather than the most basic and conservative trading rule parameters had been applied.  

Above is Chart 6 of 11 showing 9 confirmed 48ZA's between May 2016 and October 2015, the most recent being #49 and going back to #57. Notice that 48ZA #52 potential trade was cancelled because it did not meet trade confirmation criteria before trade #51 was verified. 8 of 9 hit minimum target.  

Above is Chart 5 of 11 charts showing 10 confirmed 48ZA's between January 2017 and June 2016, the most recent being #39 and going back to #48. Notice that 48ZA #'s 40, 43 & 46 were stopped out even though the 48ZA’s correctly identified trends that could have resulted in hitting at least minimum targets except #43 which may have been cancelled. 7 of 10 hit minimum target.

Similar results were identified in all 11 charts spanning the 6.75 years

Similar results were identified in all 11 charts spanning the 6.75 years to create a valid statistical data base of 100 48ZA alerts that, after confirmation, resulted in a trade. For those interested in seeing all the charts and trades I invite you to contact me and request the complete “48 Zebra Alert Analysis for EURCAD” that includes a summary of all 100 trades as well as the data analysis used to calculate:

“Win Rate” ·“Win / Loss Ratio” ·“Average Winning Result (minimum)”

“Average Losing Result (maximum)”  ·“Average Risk Reward Ratio (AvgRRR)”

and the “Expectation”

We all know that past performance does not guarantee future results.

It’s only when fear and greed are removed from the mix, by an in depth analysis, is the expected performance of a trading method more likely to result. The ultra-conservative results, exposed by this thorough analysis, are based on absolute fixed trading parameters implemented for this particular FX currency pair. The same type of analysis approach must be done for each pair traded if, ...

You really want to know what to expect from your currency trading.