Do You Have Vasa Syndrome?

The Vasa

I took a tour through Scandinavia a few weeks ago and had the opportunity to visit the Vasa museum in Stockholm. With over 35 million annual visitors, the museum is one of the most popular attractions in Sweden. As the name suggests, it houses the well-preserved remains of the Swedish warship, Vasa, which was built between 1626-1628. The Vasa sank about 1,400 yards into its maiden voyage, toppled by a strong wind, due primarily to being too top-heavy. The ship was a massive undertaking that consumed over 5% of Sweden's GNP at the time. It was raised and restored in 1961 in one of the most extensive maritime recovery operations in history.

How did it happen?

Looking at this "testament to failed engineering," I couldn't help but think about how the project ended in such failure. It's clear to the layperson that the ship's design is top-heavy, unstable, and unseaworthy. Even the 10-year-old child next to me expressed to his mom that it looked "wonky." Of course, it's easy to criticize and judge with nearly 400 years of hindsight, but there are plenty of modern Vasa examples: Boeing 737, Hubble Telescope, failed ERP and "Digital Transformation" projects, etc, etc.

According to one academic paper, the main factors contributing the Vasa's failure included:

• Excessive schedule pressure: The Vasa was completed under strong time constraints to meet a pressing need.?
• Changing needs: Many changes to operational characteristics were made during construction of the ship.?
• Lack of technical specifications: The (non-existent) specifications were not revised as the operational requirements changed.?
• Lack of a documented project plan: During a year-long transition in leadership it was difficult for the assistant to manage the project.?
• Excessive innovation: No one in Sweden, including the shipwright, had ever built a ship having two gun decks.?
• Secondary innovations: Many secondary innovations were added during construction of the Vasa to accommodate the increased length, the additional gun deck, and other changes.?
• Requirements creep: It seems that no one was aware of the degree to which the Vasa had evolved during the 2 ? years of construction.?
• Lack of scientific methods: There were no known methods for calculating center of gravity, stiffness, and the resulting stability relationships of the Vasa.?
• Ignoring the obvious: The Vasa was launched after failing a stability test.?
• Possible mendacity: Results of the stability test were known to some but were not communicated to others.

Vasa Syndrome:

?As it turns out, there's also a term for this type of failure. It's called Vasa Syndrome:?

"Vasa syndrome refers to the need to stay realistic in terms of?strategy and project management. Also, organizations need to keep their?goals?matched to their capabilities. Decision makers need to have access to unbiased (both internal and external) information and there needs to be processes in place that will allow for the flow of information throughout the organization. Through changes such as in?customer needs,?advancements or breakthroughs in technology, and changes in?competition, companies may find it necessary to alter their goals. If company coordination is poor, this can make the new goals confusing. This will affect product development at both the strategic and product management levels. It is important that organizations keep their goals and objectives clear so that their new projects and activities are not being doubted by company?employees."

Antidotes and Reflections

There are many antidotes to Vasa Syndrome that I've seen deployed in successful projects, including lean product development, agile engineering, and aggressive use of organizational OKR's.

More recently, I see Vasa Syndrome playing out in the software industry as legacy players try to transition their products and services to compete against hyper-scalers like Amazon, Azure, and Google.??

As you look at your projects and product initiatives within your industry, how many of them have hints of Vasa Syndrome?

Sources:

https://faculty.up.edu/lulay/failure/vasacasestudy.pdf

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vasa_syndrome