Do we have it all Figured out? 21 Lessons for the 21st Century Review

Debates about what the future holds for the human species has been here with us for a while now. Jean-Jacques Rousseau offered alarming descriptions of this future, writing in his book émile (1762) that societies were “approaching a state of crisis and the century of revolutions”

If Sapiens by Prof Harari examined humanity’s deep past, and his follow-up work, Homo Deus, considered its potential long-term future, 21 Lessons focuses on the troubles of the here and now. 21 Lessons for the 21st Century which is bold, breezy and engaging, romping its way into the possible challenges we are likely to face and providing plausible answers in less than 400 pages.

How should democracies contend with the quantum leaps in biotechnology and artificial intelligence (AI), just as “liberalism is losing credibility”? How should we regulate the ownership of data, which “will eclipse both land and machinery as the most important asset”? How will societies respond to AI, and the conceivable uselessness of workers? What will a progressive politics look like since it’s “much harder to struggle against irrelevance than against exploitation”? Should we fear another world war? What can be done about climate change? And what are the best responses to terrorism and fake news?

These are admittedly big questions, and this is a sweeping book. There are chapters on work, war, nationalism, religion, immigration, education and 15 other weighty matters. But its title is a misnomer. Although you will find a few concrete lessons scattered throughout, Harari mostly resists handy prescriptions. He’s more interested in defining the terms of the discussion and giving you historical and philosophical perspective.

According to him, “If we want to make the world a better place, understanding ourselves, our minds and our desires will probably be far more helpful than trying to realize whatever fantasy pops up in our heads.”

We all have anxieties about the future and what it holds for the human species which might not be beneficial in its entirety, the trick for putting an end to our anxieties, he suggests, is not to stop worrying. It’s to know which things to worry about, and how much to worry about them. As he writes in his introduction: “What are today’s greatest challenges and most important changes? What should we pay attention to? What should we teach our kids?”

The debate on free will has gone on for aeons amongst various scholars, in this book, through grim speculation on the way that the algorithmic nature of our agency may negatively impact on our ability to compete with AI, Harari raises the question of whether consciousness and free will are worth anything. On Harari’s analysis free will is an illusion, consciousness has little economic value, and our future looks bleak.

However, if Hodgson’s arguments about consciousness, plausible reasoning and free will are sound, then we are not algorithmic choosers. This might not avert some of the dystopian future scenarios that Harari considers, but the conscious exercise of libertarian free will, by way of plausible reasoning, might mitigate some of the negative consequences. In particular, consciousness might give us a valuable capacity that helps us decide what to believe, and what to do, when faced with incommensurables. Crucially, this would be a capacity that non-conscious AI lacks.

Homo sapiens might therefore retain some value in a technological dystopia because of the continuing value of consciousness and free will. Hitherto, those engaged in the free will debate have generally addressed other, perhaps loftier, questions about freedom, but if one now asks what turns on the issue of whether we have free will, on the view presented here the answer might be: our livelihoods.

As much as I did find the book fascinating and illuminating, I didn’t agree with everything in the book. I was glad to see the chapter on inequality, but I’m skeptical about his prediction that in the 21st century “data will eclipse both land and machinery as the most important asset” separating rich people from everyone else. Land will always be hugely important, especially as the global population nears 10 billion. Meanwhile, data on key human endeavors — how to grow food or produce energy, for example — will become even more widely available. Simply having information won’t offer a competitive edge; knowing what to do with it will.

I was also dissatisfied with the chapter on community. Harari argues that social media platforms have contributed to political polarization by allowing users to cocoon themselves, interacting only with those who share their views. It’s a fair point, but it undersells the benefit that such technological communities have bestowed on human species. He also creates a straw man by asking whether technological platform alone can solve the problem of polarization. On its own, of course it can’t — but that’s not surprising, considering how deep the problem cuts. Governments, civil society and the private sector all have a role to play, and I wish Harari had said more about them.

I am a cynical optimist of the propositions that Harari offered as probable solutions to the 21st century problems. It’s no criticism to say that Harari hasn’t produced a satisfying answer yet. Neither has anyone else. So I hope he turns more fully to this question in the future. In the meantime, he has teed up a crucial global conversation about how to take on the problems of the 21st century.