Do VPs Actually "Win"?

The question everyone seems to come back to is, “Who won?”

(It’s often said that debates are about “making memorable moments” – but if that’s the case, the winner was the fly that photo-bombed the night by sitting on Vice President Pence’s head for several minutes.)

For a lot of people, all they wanted was for the VP debate to be a more civil discussion than presidential debate #1. But that bar was set so low, it was more of a line drawn on the pavement to ROLL over than a bar to hurdle, so it could hardly be called a “win” for anyone.

Then what is the standard for winning? The answer is: It depends on how you define the objective of the game being played.

(Here's the short version from my conversation on PHL17 this morning with hosts Demetria Green and Nick Foley: https://phl17.com/phl17-morning-news/weve-heard-what-the-vp-candidates-said-now-lets-analyze-how-they-said-it/)

Defining the Game

A primary goal at this point is to convert the remaining undecided voters, for whom little if any change will occur based on policy answers. Instead, because the political climate has turned the contest into a “rejection election,” the likability and trustworthiness of the VP candidates become far more important. As a result, a fundamental objective is to determine what people find most distasteful or objectionable about their running mate (what makes people want to “reject” them), and prove to the fence-sitters that they (the VP candidate) are exactly the opposite kind of person, i.e. someone you DON’T want to reject.

From this standpoint, Vice President Pence had the comparatively easier task. Why?

Pence's Goal

While most people were unhappy with both Trump and Biden’s behavior in their first debate last week, there are many who feel that Trump’s behavior was far more extreme, even “unhinged.”

Mike Pence, in contrast, is the personification of “hinged.” While some may find him boring, the fact is that he is the perfect counterbalance to his running mate on this scale: Where President Trump’s personality and speech is volatile, melodramatic, and often deliberately incendiary, Mike Pence is the paragon of predictability, manners, and unflappable stability.

Verbal/Content

Regardless of whether you think his answers were remotely factual or accurate (to the extent that either he OR Senator Harris actually answered ANY of the questions they were asked), Pence was cool as a cucumber the entire time. He thanked everyone from the moderator to the American people, and even told Harris that he was honored to share the stage with her.

Vocal

Yes, he completely ignored time limits, which was probably his most off-putting habit of the night, but delivery-wise he did so “politely,” never raising his voice or otherwise appearing aggressive or rude – which could have worked against him as appearing racist or sexist against Senator Harris – so he successfully avoided that delivery pitfall too.

Visual

Similarly, we never once saw Pence’s hands, and short of an occasional head tilt or momentary eyebrow flinch, there was almost no body language to interpret. It was completely nonthreatening and unremarkable.

Ultimately, to the extent that President Trump’s “bare knuckle fight” debate style and Twitter addiction makes undecided voters feel uneasy wondering which side of the President they’ll see on any given day, Pence’s completely unwavering demeanor puts those same people at ease and makes them feel safe: what you see is what you get, period. That tips the scales for many people in favor of the Republican ticket.

Harris's Goal

Senator Harris had a far more challenging task for (at least) two reasons: First, she is not as well-known as VP Pence, so she needed to make an extremely good FIRST (and possibly only) impression on a large subset of the American people. And second, she’s at a disadvantage because it’s harder to identify exactly what undecided voters collectively find objectionable enough about Joe Biden that they’re on the fence, but not so objectionable that it makes them commit to voting for Donald Trump.

At that point, it’s NOT about policy, so the content of her answers was almost irrelevant. Without a clearer answer to the question, “What is Biden missing?”, Harris is trying to hit a moving target in determining what would be seen as the perfect complement of a running mate, as well as how to effectively show that she is such a person in order to woo those voters off the fence.

To the extent that someone may vote for her on principle because she is the only woman and/or candidate of color, she already had that vote by default. But for that very same reason, she’ll have to work twice as hard to prove herself as “presidential material” to others, and that is far more open to interpretation.

For example:

Verbal

When Mike Pence interrupted her during her allotted time on several occasions, her ready-response was “Mr. Vice President, I’m speaking, okay?” On the one hand, many women, particularly working professionals, probably cheered at that response, living vicariously through her, for all the times they have been talked over by a male coworker.

On the other hand, other viewers may have found it a somewhat snarky-sounding response, and studies repeatedly show that women and minorities are often penalized more harshly than white men for such behaviors.

Vocal/Visual

She also had no poker face: When she clearly disagreed with statements Pence was making, she typically had a big smile and/or sat with a smirk listening to him. To some, keeping a smile on her face rather than a scowl (which could have evoked the stereotype of the “angry black woman,”) could be seen positively, as a polite disagreement.

In contrast, others may have seen the smirk as condescending, particularly when combined with the “I’m speaking, okay?” retort. And men in particular have been shown to have more viscerally negative reactions when they feel like they are somehow being reprimanded by a woman – a fatal flaw that plagued the Elizabeth Warren campaign, as I wrote about during the primaries a year ago.

To the extent that a concern regarding Joe Biden is his age and energy level, Harris was animated and energetic. Her voice was authoritative but she never raised her voice in anger or defense. Her decisive head nods and hand gestures were emphatic and deliberate, but from a seated position the hand gestures often got in the way of the camera, which can come across as less polished.

Know Your Audience

Knowing your audience is a fundamental rule of thumb for theater actors, politicians and business leaders alike. The audience that mattered tonight were the undecided voters who feel like “something is missing.”

While Kamala Harris performed well overall, it’s unclear whether the “piece” she demonstrated was indeed what the fence-sitters believe Joe Biden is actually missing, and if it was persuasive enough for them to pull the trigger – or in this case, the lever – for her.

Comparatively, Mike Pence had a much clearer target to aim for in trying to fill Donald Trump’s “missing piece,” and he did so handily.

Does that make him the “winner”? We’ll find out after November 3rd.