The Dividing Issues of the US Presidential Election

Usually I spend a significant amount of time in the Middle East, most often in Abu Dhabi, Tel Aviv, or Dubai. Last week, however, I was back in the United States, specifically in New York City. The reason for my trip was an invitation to the Global CEO Summit. The engaging talks given by TV host David Letterman, Hollywood star Idris Elba, and tennis legend Steffi Graf were just a few of the many highlights of the program. However, I also enjoyed many other interesting discussions at this summit. Unsurprisingly, the most dominant topic was the US election.

In two weeks, approximately 160 million registered American voters will go to the polls. This election won’t just significantly shape the future of the US, but is also extremely relevant and pivotal for us Europeans, given the many geopolitical hotspots around the world. One aspect I find particularly fascinating is that the outcome of the election is determined by a very small group of voters in just a handful of states. This is partly due to the US electoral system, the high number of core voters, and the "first-past the-post" principle. Without going too deep into the details, I would summarize it like this: whoever manages to convince the most voters in the swing states will win the election, if even by a very small margin in some swing states.

After many discussions, the following issues seem to be particularly important to American voters and are the most dividing in the country:?

1. Migration

Although this issue is also decisive in elections in European countries, there are clear differences: while in Europe, migration mostly refers to immigration from Africa, Afghanistan, Syria or Iran, for example, the focus in the US is on illegal immigrants from South and Latin America crossing the southern border with Mexico. It’s safe to say that Trump’s clear stance on this issue was one of the reasons he won the 2015 election. What also bolsters his credibility on this issue is the inability of the Biden Harris administration to get illegal migration across the Southern border under control and being responsible for the rising numbers of illegal immigrants entering the country over the last 4 years. This high credibility is likely why he prefers to talk about this issue in TV debates. Meanwhile, it’s one of Harris’ biggest weaknesses. As vice president, she was supposed to manage the problem of illegal immigration – but hasn’t succeeded. According to numbers published by the US Customs and Border Protection, the number of illegal passings more than doubled under Biden-Harris compared to the Trump-Pence administration. In Republican circles, this has earned her the nickname “border tsar”.

2. Economy

If you think that cost of living in the European Union has reached problematic heights, you should take a look across the Atlantic. While the Fed has managed to get inflation under control, the price for this has been increasing interest rates. In a country like the US, where not only mortgages, but also consumer loans are part of everyday life, interest rate hikes have a much more drastic impact than in the EU, where private debt is lower and there’s a stronger social safety net. Once again, the middle class, blue-collar workers, and the poorest are the ones who suffer most. Although economic prospects – at least in terms of unemployment and growth – are better in the U.S. than in Europe, the social problems and the risk of falling into poverty are definitely greater here. The fact that the economy has worsened under the Biden-Harris administration helps Donald Trump who recorded very strong economic growth, particularly at the beginning of his term of office. Harris, meanwhile, has yet to present a concrete plan to turn the economy around. At least in previous TV discussions and interviews, she has avoided going into depth on the subject, focusing instead on the areas of climate policy and social justice.

3. Abortion

At first glance, it may seem somewhat odd that abortion is playing such a significant role in this election. Not because it wouldn’t be a relevant issue, but because of the way it’s being discussed. To grasp it fully, one needs to understand some background on this discussion. Similar to some European countries, the U.S. president has the right to nominate Supreme Court justices whenever a vacancy arises. Both Democrats and Republicans use this to position ideologically aligned individuals in the highest Court of the country. During Trump’s presidency, a conservative majority was established. What does this have to do with abortion? Well, about two years ago, the Supreme Court overturned the nationwide right to abortion and handed the decision back to the individual states. An interesting side note: about 9 out of 10 Democrats oppose this decision, while slightly fewer than two-thirds of Republicans support it. As an Austrian, I’m familiar with both the positive and negative aspects of federalism, and one downside is that it creates a patchwork of regulations, with some states having stricter laws than others. Although the U.S. is an extremely religious country, the majority of Americans seem to lean more liberal on this issue – as was evident in the 2022 midterm elections.?

Of course, there are other wildly debated issues beyond these three major points, such as woke identity politics, healthcare, the national budget, the Russia-Ukraine war, or national security. Speaking of: Trump has repeatedly emphasized in recent months that he would end the war in Ukraine within 24 hours of taking office. That statement seems exaggerated to say the least. However, I do believe that a resolution to the war would come faster with Trump than with Harris.

People often ask me how I predict the outcome of the election and I always give the same answer: I don’t know. Truth is, no one knows, and we won’t have a definitive answer to this question until November 5th. However, what I do know is that no matter who becomes president, Europe needs the US as a partner and vice versa. The close relationship between the US and the EU benefits both sides. As major trade partners, our collaboration in areas such as investment, technology, and innovation fosters growth and job creation on a global scale. On the security front, our shared commitment through NATO, joint efforts in counterterrorism, and cooperation in cybersecurity reinforce stability and peace in the world. The transatlantic partnership is ensuring prosperity and resilience for both the US and the EU in an increasingly interconnected but at the same time more and more divided world.