Divided “United” States of America vs. United opponents (Russia, China, Iran & North Korea)

In the grand theater of international politics, a titanic clash of ideologies and interests has been unfolding before our eyes. On one side stand the United States and its steadfast allies, representing the legacy of democracy, freedom, and economic prowess. Opposite them, China and Russia, along with their diplomatic companions, challenge the prevailing order with their own vision for the world's future. The question on many minds today is whether America's greatness remains intact or if the nation has, in some way, lost its course.

USA with its history of innovation, its Constitution rooted in democratic principles, and its role as a global beacon of opportunity, has long held a special place in the hearts and minds of people across the globe. Yet, in recent years, a sense of uncertainty has crept in as political divisions and acrimony have tarnished the image of the nation.

U.S. politics, a vital component of the nation's identity, now bears the weight of turmoil and polarization. The once-hallowed halls of government resound with partisan bickering and gridlock, raising doubts about the country's capacity to address pressing issues. The divide between red and blue, conservative and liberal, seems at times insurmountable, undermining the very principles upon which the nation was founded.

America has become politically polarized & divided

In USA, Polarized?challenges the widely held belief that polarization is the product of party and media elites. American politics became highly polarized from the bottom up, not the top down. The Democrats and the Republicans are now ideologically distant from each other and about equally distant from the political center. There is no advanced industrial democracy in the world more politically divided, or politically dysfunctional, than the United States today.

It has been 3 years since America weathered one of its most divisive elections in decades back in 2020, and there's a looming sense that the upcoming 2024 election could potentially be even more polarizing. The partisan divisions that emerged from that pivotal contest have deepened over time, in part due to a growing trend of ideological sorting. Liberals have firmly aligned themselves with the Democratic Party, while conservatives have gravitated almost exclusively towards the Republican camp.

In this fiercely charged atmosphere, Republicans and Democrats find themselves locked in unyielding combat, sparing no quarter and relentlessly challenging each other on a multitude of fronts, be it on issues or personalities. The battlegrounds have expanded to encompass government spending, taxes, the environment, immigration, foreign policy, and a multitude of other critical matters. Political adversaries have engaged in heated skirmishes during one election season after another.

As the nation braces itself for the approaching 2024 election, the question that looms large is whether the chasm of division can be bridged, and whether a path towards greater unity and cooperation can be found amidst the fervent battles of ideology and principle. Only time will tell whether America can rise above the fray and navigate its way toward a more harmonious and inclusive political landscape.

'Divided America' is a narrative that extends far beyond the traditional lines of Democrat versus Republican or liberal versus conservative. It's a tale of the 1 % versus the 99 %, of rural communities grappling with urban centers, where climate skeptics clash with fervent believers. Bathrooms have transformed into unexpected battlegrounds, and borders have become stark lines of division. In this mosaic of division, the fault lines encompass matters of sex and race, faith and ethnicity, all simmering within a melting pot that seems to be on the brink of boiling over in today's divided USA.

Fake news is an ‘infodemic’: Fake news has grown into what can aptly be described as an 'infodemic.' Some of this misinformation has been strategically disseminated by foreign entities like Russia, while unwitting social media users have played a role in its rapid spread. Against a backdrop of escalating conspiracy theories and violence, the nation has been inundated with an unprecedented surge of claims and court challenges casting doubt on election outcomes. State and local elections officials, tasked with upholding the integrity of the democratic process, have faced not only the threat of removal from their positions but also chilling death threats, all for their diligent efforts in safeguarding verified election results.

Over the past decade and beyond, it has become increasingly evident that politics is not only driving deeper divisions over policy issues but also creating rifts in culture and character.

In fact, when leaders of one party begin to label the other not merely as wrong, but as 'anti-American,' it underscores the depth of division. Surveys reveal that today, more than two-thirds of Americans perceive members of the opposing party as not just having differing views, but ascribing moral and ethical failings to them. What was once seen as a manageable range of policy disagreements has now evolved into something profoundly personal.

The Capitol riot was not an isolated incident, but rather the culmination of decades of simmering tensions. This is due to the negligence of U.S. politicians in addressing 3 distinct features of American society that have been brewing beneath the surface for far too long:

(1)??? The Enduring Legacy of Race: America's complex history of racial injustice, slavery, segregation, and discrimination has left a profound and lasting impact on society. While significant strides have been made, systemic racism and inequalities persist. Politicians have often been slow to address the deep-seated issues related to race, hindering the nation's progress toward true equality and justice. The backlash, as a group of white Americans—many of them white rural—are?seeing their status in society threatened?as a result of demographics and the recent racial reckoning.

(2)??? The Changing Nature of Capitalism: The American economic landscape has evolved significantly, marked by increasing income inequality, a shift towards gig and contract work, and the decline of traditional job security. These changes have left many Americans feeling economically vulnerable and have raised questions about the fairness of the capitalist system. Addressing these concerns and adapting policies to reflect the evolving economic reality has been a challenge for politicians. Capitalism and the economic growth it drove is what made the U.S. the world’s preeminent superpower in the latter half of the 20th century. This capitalist, individualist economic system generates tremendous amounts of wealth, but it has also resulted in an average American worker with less of a social safety net creating issue of extreme inequality.

(3)??? The Fracturing of the Collective Media Landscape: The tech companies that power modern “World” have also brought a revolution in media consumption; fracturing media landscape with the evolution of social media—talk radio, cable news and blogs. The speed of technology is such that we’ve seen the fracturing happen much quicker with social media, but the truly disruptive element tech companies have introduced is algorithms—actively designed to capture more ad revenues and attention, often achieved by promoting extremist and misleading content. And it has come at the cost of a healthy and informed citizenry. The proliferation of digital media and social platforms has fragmented the way people consume information. This has given rise to echo chambers and the spread of misinformation, making it increasingly difficult for citizens to engage in constructive dialogue and have a shared understanding of facts. Politicians have been slow to respond to the challenges posed by this fractured media landscape, which has contributed to political polarization and distrust in institutions.

These underlying factors, neglected by policymakers over the years, laid the groundwork for the events that transpired at the Capitol on January 6, exposing the urgent need for a reckoning with these issues to heal and unite the nation.

Challenges faced by U.S. economy

The U.S. economy indeed faces significant challenges related to federal government spending, taxation policies, and the growing deficit, which contribute to the unsustainable national debt. These issues have been sources of concern and debate for some time:

a)????? Runaway Federal Government Spending: The consistent growth in federal government spending has raised concerns about the sustainability of budgetary practices. As spending continues to outpace revenue, it can lead to a growing deficit and an ever-increasing national debt.

b)????? Taxation Policies and Income Inequality: Lowering taxes on wealthy Americans, while often presented as a means to stimulate economic growth, has also contributed to income inequality. This can result in a concentration of wealth among the top earners and limit the government's revenue, exacerbating deficit issues.

c)?????? Spiraling American Debt: The national debt's continuous increase raises concerns about the country's long-term fiscal health. High levels of debt can lead to higher interest payments, which in turn can crowd out other essential government spending and limit flexibility during economic downturns.

d)????? Entitlement Programs: Programs like Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid are vital for many Americans but also represent a significant portion of government spending. Addressing their cost and sustainability is a complex challenge that has proven difficult for politicians from both parties to tackle.

e)????? Debt Ceiling Opposition: The perennial opposition to raising the debt ceiling has caused uncertainty in financial markets and the broader economy. The possibility of a default could have severe consequences, damaging investor confidence and economic stability.

Failure to address these issues can indeed undermine confidence in the economy and have far-reaching consequences for both current and future generations.

USA’s military unquestionably bears the brunt of American political dysfunction, notably within Congress. A glaring example of this dysfunction is the recurring failure to approve military appropriations bills before the start of the fiscal year. Instead, lawmakers have relied on "continuing resolutions," a stopgap measure that has significant consequences for the U.S. Department of Defense.

These continuing resolutions restrict the military's financial flexibility by preventing any increase in spending on existing programs or the initiation of new ones. This budgetary uncertainty hampers long-term planning, modernization efforts, and the ability to address emerging security threats effectively. It can lead to inefficiencies, readiness challenges, and deferred investments in critical areas.

Moreover, the unpredictable budgetary environment created by these recurring continuing resolutions can have detrimental effects on military personnel and their families, as well as the defense industry and its workforce. It can disrupt the timely acquisition of essential equipment, limit troop training and maintenance, and impact the quality of life for service members.

The inability of Congress to pass timely and comprehensive military appropriations bills underscores the need for bipartisan cooperation and responsible fiscal governance. A more stable and predictable budgetary process is essential to ensure that the U.S. military can fulfill its vital role in national security and maintain readiness to meet evolving challenges effectively.

United opponents

USA now faces a challenging security landscape characterized by the emergence of a coalition of adversaries including Russia, China, North Korea & Iran. This alliance of nations poses a significant threat to U.S. security, with the potential to escalate tensions and disrupt global stability. Of particular concern is the cumulative nuclear arsenal of these countries, which could double in size within a few years.

?? Russia: Russia possesses one of the world's largest nuclear arsenals, including strategic and tactical nuclear weapons. Its aggressive actions in Eastern Europe and its willingness to employ hybrid warfare tactics have strained relations with the United States and its allies.

?? China: China's rapid military modernization and its development of advanced missile systems, including nuclear-capable ones, have raised concerns about its intentions in the Asia-Pacific region. The U.S.-China rivalry extends beyond economics and into the realm of national security.

?? North Korea: North Korea's nuclear program has long been a source of international concern. Its pursuit of nuclear weapons, coupled with provocative actions and threats, poses a direct challenge to U.S. interests and regional stability.

?? Iran: Iran's nuclear ambitions and regional influence have been a source of tension in the Middle East. While the Iran Nuclear Deal (JCPOA) aimed to address these concerns, its future remains uncertain, with implications for U.S. security interests in the region.

Chinese President?Xi Jinping?and Russian President Putin have much in common, convinced that their personal destiny is to restore the glory days of their country’s imperial past.

China-XI’S Ambitions

Xi Jinping's ambitions and his personal sense of destiny carry with them significant risks, particularly in the realm of international relations and the potential for conflict. His resolute call for “the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation” and “the complete reunification of the motherland, including the contentious issue of Taiwan with mainland China” is central to his vision.

China's military prowess has seen substantial growth, making it a formidable challenge for the United States. The Chinese military now boasts more warships than the United States and has undertaken a comprehensive modernization and restructuring effort for both its conventional and nuclear forces. China is nearly doubling its deployed strategic nuclear forces and has upgraded its command-and-control systems. Furthermore, the nation is actively enhancing its capabilities in space and cyberspace domains.

On the economic front, China has implemented an expansive global strategy, becoming the top trading partner of over 120 countries. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), with participation from more than 140 countries, signifies China's ambitions for economic influence on a global scale. China's investments in ports across approximately 60 countries further underline its intent to expand its reach and influence worldwide.

In essence, Xi Jinping's vision for "the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation" serves as shorthand for China's aspirations to ascend to the status of the dominant world power by the year 2049. These ambitions, combined with China's military and economic advancements, are poised to have a profound impact on the global balance of power and the future of international relations.

Russia-Putin’s gamble

Putin's gamble in pursuit of Russia's lost empire has had significant geopolitical consequences. In 2014 and again in 2022, Russia's actions in Ukraine went largely unanswered by a divided United States. Economically, Russia has managed to offset much of the financial impact of international sanctions through oil sales (at a price much higher than pre February 2022 level) to countries like China & India. Additionally, Moscow has benefited from consumer goods and technology imports from China.

Despite the fact that the conflict has taken a toll on Russia's conventional military forces, it retains the world's largest nuclear arsenal. As long as Putin remains in power, Russia will continue to be an adversary of the United States and NATO.

Putin's outreach extends beyond military actions. Through arms sales, security assistance, and the provision of discounted oil and gas, Russia is cultivating new relationships in Africa, the Middle East, and Asia. These efforts aim to expand Moscow's influence and challenge U.S. dominance in these regions.

Furthermore, Putin employs various means to sow division in the United States and Europe, with the ultimate goal of undermining U.S. influence in the global South. His strategies include disinformation campaigns, cyber-attacks, and support for divisive political movements. As a result, Putin's Russia remains a complex and challenging player on the international stage, with significant implications for global politics and security.

Security challenges USA facing from Iran

USA faces several significant security challenges from Iran, which continue to impact U.S. interests and regional stability:

?? Arms Supply to Proxies and Client States: Iran's support for proxy groups and client states across the Middle East, such as in Yemen, Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon, poses a substantial threat to regional security. This support includes the provision of weapons and training to these groups, which can destabilize the region and threaten U.S. allies.

?? Cyber-attacks: Iran has been linked to various cyber-attacks targeting the U.S. government, critical infrastructure, and private businesses. These attacks can disrupt essential services, compromise sensitive information, and undermine U.S. national security.

?? Threats to U.S. Officials: Iran has been implicated in plots to harm current and former U.S. officials in retaliation for the 2020 assassination of General Qassem Soleimani, a senior Iranian military figure. Such threats can escalate tensions and jeopardize diplomatic efforts.

?? Proliferation of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs): Iran's proliferation of advanced UAV technology to non-state actors across the region is a significant concern. These UAVs can be used for surveillance, reconnaissance, and even offensive operations, posing threats to both civilians in Gulf nations and U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria conducting counter-terrorism missions.

Security challenges USA facing from North Korea

North Korea remains a security challenge to USA, and to allies in South Korea and Japan, and USA continues to pursue North Korean denuclearization, cyber-crime, weapons trade (including arms deals with Russia), and the potential resumption of small-scale conventional attacks against U.S. ally South Korea.

China and Russia think the future belongs to them

China and Russia, driven by their respective ambitions, perceive the future as belonging to them. Both nations are actively engaged in extensive efforts to advance their influence on the global stage.

China, through significant financial investments, is shaping its narrative and footprint across the world. It deploys vast resources to support infrastructure development, international initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative, and various forms of soft power projection.

Russia, on the other hand, conducts aggressive campaigns aimed at spreading its propaganda, disinformation, and divisive tactics within and among democracies. These efforts aim to undermine trust in democratic institutions and create discord among nations.

In light of the growing alignment between China and Russia, the United States faces a pressing need to reconsider its nuclear strategy. The increasing cooperation between Russia, which is modernizing its strategic nuclear forces, and China, which is significantly expanding its once limited nuclear capabilities, poses a substantial challenge to the credibility of the U.S. nuclear deterrent.

This challenge is further compounded by North Korea's ongoing nuclear expansion and the potential for Iran to develop nuclear weapons. These developments collectively underscore the necessity for the United States to reassess its nuclear posture and diplomatic strategies to maintain stability and security in an evolving global landscape.

What should USA do address security threats from China, Russia, Iran & North Korea?

Addressing security threats from China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea is undoubtedly a complex endeavor. However, it's essential for the United States to strengthen its domestic foundation while simultaneously engaging with these challenges on the international stage. USA must adopt a multifaceted strategy that recognizes the complex and evolving nature of these challenges. The U.S. faces a dynamic security environment, and it must confront two critical strategic challenges: the ascent of rising powers, notably China, aiming for dominance in the global order. Some of the key components of a comprehensive approach:

1.?????? Domestic Unity and Resilience:

·???????? Address Political Polarization: Foster bipartisan cooperation, reduce political polarization, and promote civil discourse to present a unified front in foreign policy.

·???????? Strengthen Democratic Institutions: Reinforce the resilience of democratic institutions, the rule of law, and electoral processes to protect against foreign interference.

2.?????? Economic Stewardship:

·???????? Fiscal Responsibility: Implement responsible fiscal policies that prioritize long-term economic stability, control spending, and manage the budget deficit.

·???????? Investment in Critical Sectors: Invest in critical infrastructure, technology, and innovation to enhance economic competitiveness and security.

3.?????? Alliance and Partnership Building:

·???????? Strengthen Alliances: Reaffirm and strengthen alliances with like-minded nations, including NATO, to create a united front in addressing global security challenges.

·???????? Multilateral Engagement: Engage with multilateral institutions to promote collective security and rules-based international order.

4.?????? Diplomacy and Engagement:

·???????? Diplomatic Initiatives: Pursue diplomatic negotiations and dialogues with China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea to address specific security concerns.

·???????? Conflict Resolution: Actively engage in regional conflict resolution efforts to promote peace and stability.

5.?????? Defense and Deterrence:

·???????? Military Preparedness: Maintain a credible and modernized defense posture to deter potential aggression and protect national security interests.

·???????? Cyber security: Enhance cyber security capabilities to safeguard critical infrastructure and counter cyber threats.

6.?????? Economic and Technological Strategy:

·???????? Economic Statecraft: Utilize economic tools, such as sanctions and trade negotiations, to address economic and security challenges.

·???????? Emerging Technologies: Invest in and regulate emerging technologies to maintain a competitive edge and ensure national security.

7.?????? Non-Proliferation Efforts:

·???????? Nuclear Diplomacy: Pursue diplomatic efforts to address nuclear proliferation concerns, such as the Iranian nuclear program and North Korean denuclearization.

·???????? Arms Control: Engage in arms control agreements to reduce the risk of conflict, especially with Russia.

8.?????? Information and Strategic Communication:

·???????? Strategic Messaging: Communicate effectively with domestic and international audiences to articulate U.S. values and policies.

·???????? Counter Disinformation: Counter disinformation campaigns and promote responsible information sharing.

9.?????? Adaptive Strategy: Maintain flexibility in strategy to adapt to evolving security dynamics and emerging threats.

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CA Harshad Shah, Mumbai