Disunited Kingdom : Brexit, Scexit & Irexit

It is an important week for the UK laden with expectation as Theresa May officially invokes Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty today and officially notifies the EU of Britain's decision to withdraw from the European bloc after more than 40 years. Even more tenuous will be the remaining 48 hours after May invokes Article 50 as the UK waits with bated breath for the response from the EU, which is due this Friday. Triggering Article 50, formally notifying the intention to withdraw, starts the clock running. After that, the Treaties that govern membership no longer apply to Britain. 

Brexit was always a loaded decision not so much because it was a close call ; 52% voted to leave versus 48 % voted to Remain, but because both Northern Ireland and Scotland thought otherwise and the votes in those states were overwhelming balanced towards remaining a part of the EU. 

"There is no doubt that what is happening today does represent something of a leap in the dark"

Nicola Sturgeon

Nicola Sturgeon with Theresa May

Scotland voted 62% to 38% to remain in the EU, so you can't blame them for their overall disappointment. Around 42% of Scotland’s international exports went to the EU in 2014, the most recent year for which these statistics are available, worth about ￡11.6 billion.( ￡ 12.3 billion in 2015). Six of Scotland’s top ten export destinations were EU countries. 

Northern Ireland voted to remain in the EU Referendum by a majority of 56% to 44%. Northern Ireland receives substantial grants from the EU. including fund for peace-related projects. Two of the three bridges that span the River Foyle in Derry were built in part with European funds. Almost 90 percent of Northern Irish farmers' income comes from Europe. The tragedy is that the Scotland and Ireland had a more definitive view of the EU than either England or Wales. 

By a vote of 69% to 59%, members of the Scottish Parliament in Edinburgh approved plans to request a referendum on independence that could take place just before Britain completes its withdrawal from the European Union creating a air of uncertainty over May invoking Article 50.

“If Britain must choose between Europe and the open sea, she must always choose the open sea”

Sir Winston Churchill

In 1707, the Acts of Union received their Royal assent, thereby abolishing the Kingdom of England and the Kingdom of Scotland and their respective parliaments to create a unified Kingdom of Great Britain with a single Parliament of Great Britain. That union that created the United Kingdom now lies threatened because of a vote to leave the European Union.

As early as 1946, Churchill saw Britain helping a new Europe but not being part of it.

He said: “Great Britain, the British Commonwealth of Nations, mighty America, and I trust Soviet Russia must be the friends and sponsors of the new Europe and must champion its right to live and shine.”

As Prime Minister in 1953, he was explicit that Britain should not be part of the arrangement. He told the Commons: “Where do we stand? We are not members of the European Defence Community, nor do we intend to be merged in a Federal European system. We feel we have a special relation to both. This can be expressed by prepositions, by the preposition ‘with’ but not ‘of’ – we are with them, but not of them. We have our own Commonwealth and Empire.

Sir Winston Churchill isn’t here, and it’s impossible to know what he would think of the world as it is now, 50 years after his death. But he must be watching from somewhere as the UK struggles to bring unity this week in a historical decision to leave the European Union. As my Japanese friend told me recently, "All divorces are both painful and expensive".

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