The distorted views of the French election

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We did not get a fair interpretation in mainstream media of the recent French election. The jubilant cry “La France dit non au RN” does certainly not paint the correct picture of the election result. A result marred by attempts to influence voter’s choice in the second round.

Let’s take a look at the simplistic views found in a large part of mainstream media, and a closer look at what really happened, and? the reaction, not the least from the instigator himself.

“The landslide” victory of RN in Round 1 on June 30.

Here the official results from the first round from Ministère de l'Intérieur et des Outre-mer (with a cutoff at 1 percent):

RN Rassemblement National is evidently in front, with more than 9.3 million voters, representing 29.26 per cent of the votes.

Second came the popular front UG Union de la gauche who got 8.99 million votes, representing 28.06 percent.

In third place ENS Ensemble (Macron party) with 6.4 million votes, or 20.04 percent.

We may also note that 37 RN candidates achieved over 50 per cent in the first round, compared to only 2 of the ENS candidates.

The sensation was that RN went from a share of 18.68 percent in 2022 to nearly?one third in the first round in 2024.

Mainstream media reacted with alarm and called for a united front against the RN Rassemblement National in the second round:

Aujourd’hui screamed “The RN at the gates of power” on a mostly black frontpage.

Les Echos with a resigned and a defaitist sounding “The end of an era.”

The left wing Libération with a loud call to arms: “Aprés le choc Faire Blog.” An appeal to form a block against the RN.

L’Humanite with the similar appeal “Faire Front.” Make a front against the RN.

La Croix warning of a decisive week before the second round.

The Times writing that “The French right humiliates Macron.”

Die Zeit saw the result as “Ein Blick in unsere düstere Zukunft” (A view into our dark future).

The dirty work to create a bulwark against RN

For the runoff on July 7 the rules state that unless one candidate wins the first round by getting more than 50 percent of ballots cast,?the two highest-placing candidates go through to a runoff. But the rules also allow candidates to participate in the runoff, if they win the votes of at least 12.5 percent of the electorate. Three candidates would be a triangular, four candidates a quadrangular.

Now “So-called "triangular" runoffs typically result in a win for whichever party came top in the first round, since the opposition is split. But two-way contests are more closely fought, especially when voters are galvanised. Polling conducted before the first-round vote suggests that a large majority of left-wing voters would be willing to back another bloc to keep the RN out of government, as would a smaller majority of centrists.” (rfi).

The left UG Union de la gauche and Macron’s centrist ENS would not normally be expected to band together, but in order to have chance to defeat the RN they strived to withdraw their own respective candidates, if for instance they had come third in the first round, in order to make the second round a two-horse race with their respective best placed candidates. Thus around 220 candidates from either the left union or from the centrists withdrew. In this way many voters in the second round would often only have the choice of a RN candidate and either a candidate from the left union or the ENS.

The two antagonistic political parties from the left popular front and Macron’s centrist ENS were only united in their eagerness to do what they could to build a bulwark against RN and the right-wing parties. With no thought lost on the undemocratic implications of their attempts or what they would afterwards do if they succeeded. It turns out that given the reduced election choice “Almost three out of four left-wing voters in the first round turned to the macro-diste candidate, which is massive.” And “Half of the people who voted for the Republicans also gave their vote to Ensemble, and a quarter to the RN.” (Ipsos and Le Parisien).

Defeat for RN in the second round on July 7?

A resounding French NO! to RN, that is the impression one gets from the media on the day after the second round. From a landslide victory to just a third palace in the election. Looking at the impression in the media one gets the impression that French voters must have had second thoughts and voted to create a bulwark against a new success for the RN.

From landslide to a defeat for RN:

Liberation: In big letters shouting “C’est Ouf!” for the amazing victory for the UG Union de la gauche printed over a picture of the left celebrating the popular front’s victory.

L’Humanité showing the great wave of the popular front on its front page using a picture of the famous Japanese print of “The great wave of Kanagawa” colored red, and the text L'espoir Rena?t, for reborn hope.

La Croix wrote “La France dit non au RN” with a picture of a young woman (a reference to the French Marianne?) wrapped in the French flag.

Les Echo with a triumphant “La Claque” or “The slap” to the RN’s young hope for prime minister, Jordan Bardella.

Le Figaro: “Le RN en échec, la gauche s'impose à Macron” or “The RN failed, the left imposes itself on Macron.”

Similar reactions in foreign media.

With Reuters writing “French voters deliver a win for the left, a blow for Le Pen and a hung parliament”

BBC: “What just happened in France's shock election? … It was the left who had clinched it, and Emmanuel Macron's centrists - the Ensemble alliance - had staged an unexpected comeback, pushing the far-right National Rally (RN) into third.

Defeat for RN – is that what the numbers say?

Here the official results for the second round from Ministère de l'Intérieur et des Outre-mer (with a cutoff at 1 percent):¨

Surprise for those just listening to mainstream media: The ranking in the second round, looks actually similar to the first round:

RN Rassemblement National still in front with 8.7 million votes, representing an even bigger share of all votes than in the first round at 32.05 percent.

Second is the popular front, UG Union de la gauche, with 7 million votes and a smaller share of the votes at 25.68 per cent

Third ENS Ensemble (Macron party collection) with 6.3 million, and a share of 23.14 percent.

Why then did mainstream media talk of La claque or the slap to RN? Looking at the numbers the RN got even more votes than in the first round, and is still in the first place. ?Why does this no longer represent a landslide for the party?

To understand that we have to look at the candidates who won in the election districts.

Here the explanation for the strange excitement of the popular front, the satisfaction of the Macron’s ENS and their united expression of glee over the slap for RN.

Looking at the candidates who won in the second round the ranking has really changed. Now the new popular front (NFP) is in front so speak, winning 182 Députés (or 32% of the seats in the Chamber. The ENS ensemble second with 168 Députés (29% of the seats). While the first ranked in total votes, ending in an embarrassing third place with just 143 Députés (or just 25% of the seats, including LR’s seats).

Distorting the will of the people?

It is apparent that the bulwark strategy of those parties only united in their wish to keep the RN from winning worked. At least for now, the jubilant RN from the first round were cut down to size in the second round.

Naively one might have believed that having a second round might help express the will of the people more fairly than having just one round with its “First-past-the-post voting.” But evidently it also leaves open the possibility of two unlike parties gathering together in the attempt to prevent the majority of a third party. Thereby subverting the election processes and the power of voter choice.

To the Figaro the end result seemed paradoxical. “Favoured in many polls in between laps, the Rassemblement national became only the third force of the Chamber. The first in number of votes cast, the RN was third in number of seats.

A result celebrated on the left, as in the voice of the ecologist Marine Tondelier, for whom “the people have won.”Did it now? With Jordan Bardella’s camp raising 10 million voters (36% of the votes), compared to 7.5 million for the left-wing coalition (25%), and 7 million for the presidential camp (23%).

The reaction of RN and its voters were captured by Le Monde immediately after the second round: ?“The party leaders, aware of the defeat, isolated themselves in an upstairs space. What remained were well-dressed militants frozen in front of the big screen. Their distress was captured by cameras that thought they had come to film shouts of joy. There were murmurs: "Dammit, we're third..." "It's a load of rubbish, they've cheated." One woman, who has endured other defeats, blamed the usual suspects: "The French are idiots! A people of morons!"

Later on the TV channel France 2, the re-elected RN lawmaker Julien Odoul expressed his bitterness: "They're going to pay the price for this submission. They're going to pay the price of this non-choice." (Le Monde, July 8).

Macron actions leaving French politics in a limbo

The present limbo was set in motion by President Macron. With his rash reaction to the French results of the EU elections on June 9. Which the RN won with 31.37 per cent.

In what can only be seen as an angry and hasty personal reaction, President Macron one day after the EU election dissolved the French Parliament and called for elections later in June. He argued that “For me, who has always considered that a united, strong and independent Europe is good for France, it’s a situation that I cannot come to terms with, … The rise of nationalists and demagogues is a danger to our nation. And also for France’s position in Europe and in the world”

What he may have forgotten in his rash decision to call for elections is that the result of the French EU election may have all to do with his own actions and inactions as a sitting president.

According to Jamil Anderlini, Editor-in-chief, of Politico Europe “Macron shocked even his closest advisers by calling a snap election … Relying almost entirely on his own counsel, the incredibly unpopular president took a great gamble, one that has thrown the country’s politics into chaos.” (Politico July 8). One wonders if this really is the kind of leader that France or Europe needs, but that is what we have got. A Macron believing almost Napoleonic in himself, castigating politicians and voters with other views as nationalists and demagogues is a danger to our nation.

The result is an unresolved limbo in France with a Parliament split mainly in three enemy camps that won’t be able to agree on much more than to disagree: The New popular Front with almost 32% of the seats, the Macron’s ENS 29% and RN together with LR making up the right with nearly 25% of the seats.

Macron imperial “Je demande”

Macron took his time, but three days after election he wrote a letter to the French people, finishing it by claiming “Last Sunday, you called for the invention of a new French political culture. For you, I will take care of it. On your behalf, I will be the guarantor.”

?Macron's letter (Google translation):

“French dear French, dear French,

On 30 June and 7 July, you went to the ballot box in large numbers to choose your Members. I welcome this mobilization, a sign of the vitality of our Republic, from which we can, it seems to me, draw some conclusions.

First, there is a need for democratic expression in the country. Then, if the far right came first in the first round with nearly 11 million votes, you clearly refused to allow it to accede to the Government. At last, no one won. No political force alone achieves a sufficient majority, and the blocs or coalitions that emerge from these elections are all in the minority. Divided in the first round, united by mutual withdrawals to the second, elected by the votes of the voters of their former adversaries, only the Republican forces represent an absolute majority. The nature of these elections, marked by a clear demand for change and power-sharing, forces them to build a broad gathering.

President of the Republic, I am both a protector of the best interests of the nation and a guarantor of the institutions and respect for your choice.

It is in this respect that I ask all the political forces that are appreciative in republican institutions, the rule of law, parliamentarianism, a European orientation and the defence of French independence, to engage in a sincere and fair dialogue in order to build a solid, necessarily plural majority for the country. Ideas and programmes before the posts and personalities: this gathering will have to be built around a few major principles for the country, clear and shared republican values, a pragmatic and readable project and take into account the concerns you expressed at the time of the elections. It must ensure the greatest possible institutional stability. It will bring together women and men who, in the tradition of the Fifth Republic, place their country above their party, the nation above their ambition. What the French have chosen through the polls – the Republican front, the political forces must realize it by their actions.

It is in the light of these principles that I will decide on the appointment of the Prime Minister. This means giving some time to the political forces to build these compromises with serenity and respect for everyone. In the meantime, the current Government will continue to exercise its responsibilities and will be in charge of day-to-day affairs, as is the case in the Republican tradition.

Let us place our hope in the ability of our politicians to show a sense of concord and appeasement in your own interest and that of the country. Our country must be able to live, as so many of our European neighbours do, this spirit of overcoming that I have always called for.

Your vote requires everyone to live up to the moment. To work together.

Last Sunday, you called for the invention of a new French political culture. For you, I will take care of it. On your behalf, I will be the guarantor.

In confidence. Emmanuel Macron”

(Le Parisienne July 10, 2024)

A simple comment in Le Parisien may indicate how the letter from the “Guardian of French political culture” was seen:“We have done everything possible to thwart and frustrate the will of the people, and now we are playing the frightened virgin and we ask for respect for the institutions.”

Perhaps the French elites and their representation in mainstream media have a serious problem with reality. Being caught in their own imagined of ideology and besserwissen, they ignore real problems seen by voters, denigrating them instead and arguing like Macron, that “the rise of nationalists and demagogues is a danger to our nation.” A situation they cannot come to terms with, therefore trying to distort the will of the people.

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