Disruptive Technologies: Autonomous Trucks Arrive

Jackie Doherty and Ed Yardeni

We have long maintained that economists are all too often too pessimistic. That's usually because they don't anticipate the positive economic impact of technological innovations. These occur in response to widely recognized problems, especially shortages that cause prices to soar. Higher prices create an opportunity for entrepreneurs to develop cheaper and often better alternatives to scarce resources.

Among the most pessimistic economists have been Malthusians, who've been predicting that populations would increase faster than food supplies, leading to famines. That hasn't happened thanks to technologies that have greatly boosted productivity in agriculture. Today's pessimists predict that labor shortages are already causing a wage-price spiral. Among the scarcest workers are truck drivers. Entrepreneurs are already working to solve this problem.

In the upcoming year, it looks like autonomous trucking may roll into the mainstream. Walmart is testing autonomous trucks using Gatik software, UPS is testing autonomous truck routes in Texas, and TuSimple’s autonomous trucks are cruising across the southern US states. Progress in autonomous trucking may even be passing progress in autonomous passenger vehicles, in part because trucks often drive predictable routes and can avoid the tricky situations cars may encounter.

Venture capitalists are watching. “In the year through Dec. 6, total investment activity for self-driving logistics vehicles leapt fivefold to $6.5 billion from $1.3 billion in the same period in 2020, according to startup data platform PitchBook. Investment activity for robotaxi firms, meanwhile, fell 22% to $8.4 billion from $10.8 billion over the same period,” a December 9 Reuters article reports.

Here's our look at some of the autonomous truckers hitting the road:

(1) Walmart tests last-mile autonomy. Walmart announced last month that it has been using two autonomous box trucks on a seven-mile loop in Bentonville, Arkansas—without a safety driver behind the wheel since August. The trucks shuttle between a fulfillment center and a Walmart store.

The retailer is working with Gatik, a startup company that focuses on the business-to-business market and short-haul routes like transporting retail goods from warehouses to stores. Gatik’s autonomous trucks drive day and night as they’re being tested on dense urban roads with traffic lights and intersections, a November 8 press release stated. Unlike autonomous taxis, they generally are able to avoid left turns across oncoming traffic, blind turns, and any other complicated driving, as well as schools, hospitals, and fire stations.

Founded in 2017, Gatik has raised $114.5 million and is backed by Koch Disruptive Technologies, Innovation Endeavors, Wittington Ventures, and others, and it has partnered with Ryder, Goodyear, Isuzu, and others, the press release stated.

(2) UPS tests handsfree trucking. UPS plans to test Waymo’s Class 8 autonomous trucks for long-haul deliveries between Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston, but the truck will have humans behind the wheel. The two companies have been working together, with UPS testing Waymo’s self-driving minivans for local deliveries, a November 17 article in The Verge reported.

Waymo announced this summer that it’s working with JB Hunt Transport Services on hauling goods in a Class 8 autonomous truck for one of JB Hunt’s customers between Fort Worth and Houston. The trucks will be supervised by Waymo employees in the cab. Waymo is also working with Daimler, which plans to use Waymo’s autonomous technology in its heavy-duty Freightliner Cascadia semi-trailer trucks, a June 10 article in The Verge reported.

Waymo is perhaps best known for the trials of its autonomous taxis in the suburbs of Phoenix without a safety driver and in San Francisco with one. A December 8 Reuters article questioned whether the company was losing its lead over others with similar ambitions. Ford Motor’s Argo AI says it will partner with Lyft to run robotaxis in Miami before year-end with a safety driver present, and General Motors’ Cruise hopes to have permits next year for a middle-of-the-night driverless taxi offering.

(3) Texas welcomes autonomous trucks. Waymo isn’t alone in Texas. Embark Trucks, another autonomous trucking software developer, next year plans to haul freight in its autonomous trucks between Houston and San Antonio, a December 9 FreightWaves article reported. The trucks will have backup drivers in the cabs.

Embark is working with development program members Werner Enterprises, Mesilla Valley Transportation, and Bison Transport. The company, which didn’t say how many trucks were involved, went public through a merger with Northern Genesis Acquisition Corp. in a November deal that valued Embark at roughly $5 billion.

TuSimple also has autonomous trucks on the Texas roads. Its 50 trucks with safety drivers on board are driving across the southern US. The company plans to have a national network crossing US highways by 2024.

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