Disruptive Geopolitics in the Persian Gulf
The traditionally solid bloc of countries and petromonarchies in the Persian Gulf, bound by centuries old sheikhdoms and a gerontocratic system, along with tight oil and gas deals and businesses, now might be confronting important disruptive issues that could alter its long conservative geopolitical status quo, marked by tight contest and the race for influence and leadership, not only over the Islamic world but also over the oil and gas and which player leads the sudden race to a post oil economy in the region.
And these pressing issues are somewhat divisive attitudes towards rivals like Iran, Israel, Turkey (all of which have their own desires and strategic goals of extending and asserting their respective religious, economic and geopolitical influence in the Gulf, whose younger population have in different ways their strong demands and grievances against their monarchies, especially coming from the diverse religious minorities, these being exploited by not only the mentioned countries but also by the wide ranging existing radical islamic groups like Al Qaeda, Islamic State and their branches in the countries of the area.
At the same time, the race by these monarchies, always dependent on oil and gas revenues, towards a post energy economy, which far from being a unifying element for the region, it seems so far to be another divisive and disruptive issue, between the states, already in an aggressive quest to get ahead in this transition towards the renewables based economy, especially more visible in countries with ongoing depleted reserves and peak oil production not too far away on the horizon, like the United Arab Emirates, but also taking the cases of Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, embarked on ambitious reform programs of modernisation with the primary goal of moving towards a non oil dependent economy, but with unpredictable political and social consequences for the old ruling elites implementing these far reaching measures.
But these geopolitical frictions within the Gulf have nowhere been more visible and exposed than in the going hotspots and flash points all across the MENA region, being the most critical the conflicts in Yemen, Syria, Libya, Irak, where it's known of the conflicting interests basically between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) (in Yemen), and in the war in Syria and Libya, with each monarchy supporting and arming their own respective proxy in order to assert their religious and geopolitical influence, basically from a religious point of view, with the saudis always trying to keep a wahhabi status quo against shhism and other branches of islam, although it remains to watch how saudi foreign policy will be with the future role of the already in charge of almost every sensitive issue in the kingdom, Prince Mohammed bin Salman, seen so far as a reformist, at least inside the country.
Therefore, and a in a fast paced changing world, with traditional power structures being challenged and shaken, if they don't adapt to the new current technological, energy, financial, social and political trends, especially in the region of the Gulf, facing important dilemmas and contradictions, with the presence and aspirations of relevance of newly arrived players, then, it's most likely that the traditional geopolitical order existent for decades in the Persian Gulf and the whole MENA region could suffer an important everlasting change, with new states assuming the leadership of the bloc, those which have been better coping and showing more intelligence and flexibility when it comes with dealing with the domestic issues as well as in the regional arena.
Hence, we probably could see a renewed geopolitical architecture in the Gulf, with either a freshened OPEC, GCC, and the Arab League, or on the contrary, a Persian Gulf without any of these decades old blocs, a symbol of the old geopolitical order in this sensitive region, which definitely is showing traits and signs of a deep change.