Disruption is in Decline: Two Things You Can Do to Disrupt in Any Industry
Whitney Johnson
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A study published in Nature by Michael Park, Erin Leahey, and Russell J. Funk shed light on a concerning trend: a decline in disruptive activity in science and technology.?
While the absolute number of disruptive published papers and patent applications has remained relatively constant, the total number of papers and patents has significantly increased.?
The percentage of disruptive papers and patents has decreased.
In fact, since the 1940s, the percentage of disruptive papers and patents has declined by approximately 75% (for patents) to 90% (for papers). This decrease in disruptive outcomes is a significant shift we need to take into account as leaders and development professionals.
To make sense of this decline, we can turn to the S Curve?. The S Curve is a model that maps your personal growth experience in an S shape—a flat tail at the beginning, a steep back, and a flat plateau again at the top.?
Now visualize a scientific paradigm—the current best theory encompassing a body of knowledge, understanding, and methods—as an S Curve.?
At the low end of the curve, there is a vast unknown, along with numerous challenges and constraints that hinder scientific advancements within the paradigm. As knowledge accumulates, a tipping point is reached, and progress accelerates up the steep back of the curve where fruitful avenues of investigation yield results and breakthroughs occur. As time passes, the advancements become slower, and progress is made in incremental steps rather than significant leaps.
At the high-end of the scientific paradigm curve, the focus shifts to consolidating accepted knowledge rather than pushing boundaries.
As with our personal growth and development , there are benefits to climbing up each S Curve fully in many contexts. When we stay until we reach the top—the mastery phase—we cement our skills and knowledge and fine-tune our approach to the point where it becomes second nature.?
As Max Kozlov reminds us in his response to the original Nature article “disruptiveness is not inherently good, and incremental science is not necessarily bad.”?
The scientific process is intended to ensure replicable results under wide-ranging circumstances—it relies on results that are reproducible, and the duplication of studies is an essential part of that process.
So the increase in the non-disruptive papers is not necessarily bad. They help solidify gains and become the grounds on which the next S Curves will stand.?
But, the pendulum has shifted, and we are at a time when we need to push for disruption.
We need new and novel research and findings. We need to do two things in order to lean into disruption not only in science and technology but also in organizations:?
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While the study we mentioned earlier primarily focused on evaluating published papers and patent applications, it briefly touched upon a decline in novelty observed in grant applications. This aspect, although not explored in detail in the article, holds predictive value that merits further investigation.
The ultimate results from this study are, to some extent, influenced by the objectives outlined in grant applications. As the study authors highlight, scientific investigations reflect the "shifting interests of funders and scientists."?
Science and technology are not immune to the economic considerations affecting progress in other fields. Scientists focus on research avenues that appeal to funders, who, in turn, prioritize risk reduction. Consequently, grant applications often emphasize familiarity with existing paradigms rather than seeking significant disruption.
Just like in organizations, budgets often determine where the work is done.
So, how can we know at the beginning of a curve, at the grant application or budgeting stage, if something is likely to be disruptive??
According to the study, disruptive papers and patents exhibit linguistic differences compared to consolidative ones. They tend to use language that suggests the creation of a new paradigm, rather than relying on language familiar to the existing paradigm.?
It is plausible that a similar linguistic evaluation of a grant application could predict whether the associated study will be disruptive or consolidative.
It is no surprise that individuals and organizations providing funding for initiatives often seek to minimize risk. It feels safe. But we must understand that embracing risk is a crucial catalyst for disruption and transformative breakthroughs.
Yes, we need to course correct, but let's not forget the value of what's not new and novel. There is no need for an extreme swing of the pendulum where only disruptive projects receive funding, but we do need to move towards innovation.?
Therefore, it is crucial for us to identify mechanisms that can predict the potential for disruption early in the process, even as early as the funding application stage, or in the case of a business, in the budgeting stage. Such insights can help make informed decisions regarding resource allocation for long-term progress.
How has funding encouraged or discouraged disruption in your field?
How do the cycles between disruption and mastery play out in your life?
Get your weekly dose of disruption delivered directly to your inbox—sign up for my “D is for Disruption” email list.?
Deputy Head CIEB University of Basel - Analyzing the Swiss innovation landscape
7 个月Whitney Johnson, thank you very much for your article. Although it is a few months old, you might find the following interesting. The results of Park et al. (2023) in the case of patents are biased, as we show in a recent paper in Research Policy. After correcting for the bias, there is only a marginal decrease in the average disruptiveness of patents. At the same time, and in contrast to the results of Park et al., the absolute number of highly disruptive patents increases strongly once the bias is corrected. Thus, the science and innovation system still seems to be able to deliver substantial disruptive innovations. This result is also more in line with what we see at the moment: lots of disruptive innovations due to e.g. genAI or new breakthroughs in genetics etc. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0048733324000416
HELIOS, AHEL, IFPIC AT&T Bell Labs SONET CHIP SET. VFMA Wafer scale test , High Energy Laser Weapons, Millimeter Wave, Senior Electro-Optical Manager, Process & Electrical Engineer High Energy Projected Beam Weapons
1 年Back in the 1990's while i worked at AT&T Bell Labs, they funded many courses, i took advantage of. One was presented by a department head at Harvard or some such, He discussed the various ages of the human race and the longevity of each age. He plotted these and then extrapolated. the time between each age became shorter by a mathematical relationship. I plotted it to an age changing every month, every day. Back then, the year was 2022 or so, when new ages, new technology, new knowledge would change so fast, it becomes un manageable. Oh yes, you may still disrupt, but do not expect that to last very long until you yourself are disrupted.. the days of years or decades of an age are long gone and nothing, short of a catastrophic fail of civilization will bring them back Can that happen ? The chance of a catastrophic failure is inversely proportional to the time between ages. This is the law of Entropy or entropic equilibrium. When things get so complex, the effort it takes to hold them together soon asymptotes . the thing is falling apart faster than it can be put back together, then a catastrophic failure occurs. Most assuredly is is coming, there is nothing you can do to stop it. Just enjoy life now.
Sales Associate at American Airlines
1 年Thank you for posting
In our world of “infobesity” (learned that from you), I’m not surprised that there’s a lack of disruption. If we see so much of the same information and we’re glued to our screens, there’s little time for imagination.
New Home Sales Counselor @ Epique Realty | Certified New Home Specialist, CDPE, GRI, ePro, Green
1 年I'm seeing disruption everywhere. Chat GPT, AI images, the building industry is just beginning to pivot towards factory built High Performance homes, electric cars. I'm working with a High Performance volumetric modular off site builder. Why are we stick building when smarter, better, faster is right here? There is disruption, look in the right places.